DATE=12/21/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42200
TITLE=IRAQ: WHAT NEXT?
BYLINE=SCOTT BOBB
DATELINE=AMMAN
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: WITH THE END OF THE U-S AND BRITISH AIR STRIKES AGAINST
IRAQ, ATTENTION IS NOW FOCUSING ON WHAT TO DO NEXT. THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY STILL SEEKS TO CONTAIN IRAQ'S EFFORTS TO
REBUILD ITS ARSENAL OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. BUT IT ALSO
WANTS TO PROTECT THE IRAQI PEOPLE FROM THE PUNISHING ECONOMIC
SANCTIONS IN FORCE SINCE THE END OF THE GULF WAR. V-O-A MIDDLE
EAST CORRESPONDENT SCOTT BOBB HAS BEEN TALKING TO POLITICAL
EXPERTS IN THE REGION AND HAS THIS REPORT ON WHAT NEXT FOR IRAQ?
TEXT: THE U-S AND BRITISH AIR STRIKES AGAINST IRAQ THIS PAST
WEEK HAVE UNDERSCORED A GROWING RIFT IN THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY OVER HOW TO DEAL WITH THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT AND PREVENT
ANY NEW AGGRESSION BY IT.
THERE IS A RELATIVELY SOLID CONSENSUS ON ONE ISSUE -- THAT IT
WOULD BE BEST TO HAVE A DIFFERENT GOVERNMENT IN BAGHDAD. BUT
OPINION LEADERS LIKE A POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF KUWAIT, ABDULLAH SHAIJI, BELIEVE AIR STRIKES ARE
NOT THE SOLUTION.
/// SHAIJI ACT ///
THERE IS REALLY NO END GAME. THERE IS NO STRATEGY.
AND WE HOPE THAT THIS STRIKE COULD MATERIALIZE IN ONCE
AND FOR ALL TOPPLING OFF THIS EVIL REGIME IN BAGHDAD.
BUT UNFORTUNATELY, IT DOESN'T SEEM THAT THIS OPERATION
WILL LEAD TO THAT END.
/// END ACT ///
/// OPT /// OPINION LEADERS HERE SAY THE ARAB WORLD NO
LONGER SUPPORTS MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAQ. THEY NOTE THAT
MOST ARAB GOVERNMENTS CRITICIZED THE AIR STRIKES. AND THE POPULAR DEMONSTRATIONS THAT ERUPTED ACROSS THE REGION PUT
PRESSURE ON GOVERNMENTS TO ADOPT AN EVEN MORE CRITICAL PUBLIC
STANCE.
/// OPT /// MOREOVER, ARAB ANALYSTS NOTE THAT THREE OF THE
FIVE PERMANENT MEMBERS OF THE U-N SECURITY COUNCIL -- CHINA,
FRANCE, AND RUSSIA -- DID NOT SUPPORT THE STRIKES, CAUSING A
SPLIT IN THE BODY THAT ORIGINALLY AUTHORIZED THE USE OF MILITARY
FORCE. /// END OPT ///
ARAB OPINION LEADERS SAY IT IS TIME FOR A REVIEW OF THE POLICY
TOWARD IRAQ. THEY SAY THE FIRST THING TO DO IS TO END THE
ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAQ, BECAUSE IT IS CLEAR THEY HAVE
NOT WORKED.
THEY SAY THAT IF IRAQ'S ABILITY TO PRODUCE WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION HAS BEEN DESTROYED, AS CLAIMED BY THE U-S AND BRITISH
GOVERNMENTS, THEN THERE IS NO REASON FOR MAINTAINING SANCTIONS,
WHICH ARE STARVING THE IRAQI PEOPLE AND INFLAMING ANGER IN THE
ARAB WORLD.
POLITICAL ANALYSTS SAY MOST PEOPLE IN THE REGION DO NOT BELIEVE
IRAQ IS A MILITARY THREAT ANY LONGER. BUT IN ORDER TO MAKE SURE,
AIR SURVEILLANCE BY WESTERN POWERS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG
WITH THE THREAT OF FORCE SHOULD IRAQ RESUME ITS WEAPONS
PRODUCTION.
THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF JORDAN'S AL-DESTOUR NEWSPAPER, NABIL
AL-SHARIF, SAYS IT IS ALSO VERY IMPORTANT TO RESTORE THE
CREDIBILITY OF THE UNITED NATIONS, WHICH HAS BEEN DAMAGED BY THE
WORK OF THE U-N SPECIAL COMMISSION -- UNSCOM -- AND ITS CHIEF,
RICHARD BUTLER.
/// AS-SHARIF ACT ///
UNSCOM HAS REALLY LOST ALL CREDIBILITY, ALL OBJECTIVITY
IN THE MINDS OF THE PEOPLE IN THE REGION. BUT THERE IS
A LOT OF RESPECT FOR MR. KOFI ANNAN, FOR THE U-N, AND I
THINK THE U-N SHOULD BE THE AGENCY THAT OVERSEES IRAQ'S
COMPLIANCE WITH U-N RESOLUTIONS.
/// END ACT ///
IRAQI OFFICIALS SAY THEY WILL NOT ALLOW THE RETURN OF UNSCOM,
WHICH WAS FORMED AT THE END OF THE GULF WAR. AND MANY ANALYSTS
IN THE REGION SAY IT MAY BE TIME TO CREATE ANOTHER AGENCY FOR
IRAQ, ONE THAT IS LESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAR AND WITH A
DIFFERENT LEADERSHIP.
/// OPT /// THE EDITOR OF THE IRAQ'S BAGHDAD OBSERVER
NEWSPAPER, KHADAYAR AHMED, SAYS IT IS TIME FOR DIPLOMACY TO TAKE
THE LEAD.
/// OPT // ADMED ACT ///
THERE MUST BE DIPLOMATIC COMMUNICATION TO SOLVE
OUTSTANDING ISSUES. SO I ASSUME THE DIPLOMATIC
COMMUNICATIONS WILL CONTINUE OR BE RESUMED.
/// END ACT // END OPT ///
MANY OPINION LEADERS IN THE REGION SAY IT ALSO IS TIME TO END
IRAQ'S OUTCAST STATUS AND, AS LONG AS IRAQ DOES NOT POSE A
THREAT TO ITS NEIGHBORS, RESTORE ITS POSITION IN THE ARAB
COMMUNITY.
THEY SAY THE ROLE OF THE ARAB LEAGUE, WHICH HAS BEEN MARGINALIZED
BECAUSE OF THE IRAQI CONFLICT, SHOULD BE REVITALIZED, AS ANOTHER
ALTERNATIVE TO VIOLENCE.
MR. AL-SHARIF NOTES THERE IS ONE ADDITIONAL OPTION WHICH HAS YET
TO BE TAKEN.
/// AL-SHARIF ACT ///
IT'S UNFORTUNATE THAT EVERYTHING HAS BEEN USED AGAINST
IRAQ MILITARILY, BUT NOT ONE SIMPLE OPTION HAS BEEN
TRIED, WHICH IS DIRECT COMMUNICATION WITH IRAQ. HIS
MAJESTY KING HUSSEIN (OF JORDAN) HAS CALLED FOR THAT
OPTION TO BE EXPLORED -- THAT THERE SHOULD BE A A
DIALOGUE, A DIRECT DIALOGUE BETWEEN IRAQ AND THE U-S.
/// END ACT ///
INDEPENDENT OBSERVERS SAY THIS OPTION MAY BE THE MOST DIFFICULT
TO IMPLEMENT, BECAUSE OF THE DISTRUST BUILT UP BETWEEN THE U-S
AND IRAQI GOVERNMENTS SINCE THE GULF WAR.
/// REST OPTIONAL ///
NEVERTHELESS, THEY SAY THE SITUATION HAS CHANGED SINCE THE
INTERNATIONAL COALITION DROVE IRAQ FROM KUWAIT AND IMPOSED
SANCTIONS AND WEAPONS MONITORING.
THEY SAY THE COALITION NO LONGER EXISTS, AND U-S AND BRITISH
POLICY ON IRAQ IS ISOLATED INTERNATIONALLY. AND, THEY CONCLUDE,
IF THIS POLICY IS MAINTAINED, IT WILL BRING ONLY INCREASED
RESISTANCE FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY AND RISING
CONFRONTATION WITH THE ARAB WORLD. (SIGNED)
NEB/SB/JWH
21-Dec-98 11:04 AM EST (1604 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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