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19 December 1998

DEFENSE DEPARTMENT REPORT, SATURDAY, DECEMBER 19

(Cohen/Shelton briefing on Iraq)  (740)
COHEN ESTIMATES IRAQI MISSILE PROGRAM SET BACK AT LEAST A YEAR
Secretary of Defense Cohen told a Pentagon briefing December 19 that
one of the key aims of the US and British air strikes on Iraq had been
to degrade Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's ability to deliver weapons
of mass destruction. "We estimate that Saddam's missile program has
been set back by at least a year," Cohen said.
The Defense Secretary dismissed a statement by a high Iraqi official
that the mission of UNSCOM weapons inspectors was now over. Cohen said
lifting of UN sanctions depended on full compliance with UN
resolutions, and that would "require UN inspectors to return and
complete their job."
The US and British attacks, concentrating on military targets, which
started December 16 after the United Nations Special Commission
(UNSCOM) in Iraq reported that Iraq was impeding UN inspections of
Saddam's biological, chemical and nuclear weapons programs.
Cohen said the strikes had caused major damage to the elite Republican
Guard and other targets. "I want to stress that this military action
is substantial," he said. It had inflicted "significant damage on the
seven target categories" US officials had selected, Cohen told
reporters.
The Pentagon said 97 sites had been struck and produced aerial
photographs of damaged missile production facilities, collapsed
barracks of Saddam Hussein's Republican Guard and a large government
building in Baghdad holed by three cruise missiles.
Cohen told reporters that the most significant damage had been done to
military command targets -- including Republican Guard facilities in
Baghdad, Saddam's hometown of Tikrit and in southern Iraq.
General Henry H. Shelton, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said
that damage assessment was still in the early stages, but that sea-
and air-launched cruise missiles and bombs had caused heavy damage to
Republican Guard and other units. He could provide no casualty
figures.
Twenty-seven of the 97 targets hit in the three days before the
December 19 final round of raids were Republican Guard and other
security facilities and 20 of those were severely or moderately
damaged, according to the intelligence director of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff. Navy Rear Admiral Thomas Wilson also produced photographs of
heavy damage to the Shahiyat liquid rocket engine research and
development and testing centre in southern Iraq and to the Ibn
al-Haytham missile research and development centre.
"In the primary areas of concern -- the soldiers that support Saddam's
weapons of mass destruction capabilities, his command and control and
the security forces associated with these weapons -- we have had
significant success in our air strikes," Shelton told reporters.
Cohen insisted again that the main aim of the strikes was to degrade
Saddam's ability to produce nuclear, chemical and biological weapons
and to threaten his neighbours, not to destabilise Saddam's
government.
"I think it is too early to make that assessment," he replied when
asked whether Saddam's forces could still protect the President and
help conceal weapons of mass destruction.
The Defense Secretary warned that Washington would press to keep UN
sanctions against Iraq in effect and said the only way the sanctions
could be lifted was for inspectors to confirm that Saddam had
abandoned his programs to develop deadly weapons.
Just minutes after President Clinton announced the end of "Operation
Desert Fox" after a meeting with his top national security advisers,
JCS Chairman Shelton told reporters at the Pentagon the evening of
December 19 that US and British forces struck nearly 100 targets in
Iraq during the 70-hour, four day air offensive, which he called
"highly successful."
Among the sites hit, Shelton said, were seven or eight of Saddam's
palaces, and the focus of Saturday's final attacks were Republican
Guard forces that are the most potent arm of Saddam's military.
Cohen, at the same evening briefing with Shelton after the strikes
were ended, expressed regret at the prolonged suffering of the Iraqi
people as a result of UN economic sanctions and the Western bombing
campaigns. "Only Saddam and his brutally destructive regime are to
blame," Cohen said.
"We have diminished his ability to threaten his neighbors," Cohen
said. He acknowledged, however, that it is possible Saddam eventually
will be able to rebuild at least some of the bombed facilities. He
said reports suggesting only modest success through Friday were
misleading because bomb damaged classified as "moderate" is more than
adequate.