DATE=12/17/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42175
TITLE=REACTION TO BOMBING
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: REACTION TO THE BOMBING OF IRAQ AMONG U-S POLITICAL
ANALYSTS RANGES FROM QUALIFIED APPROVAL TO CONSIDERABLE
SKEPTICISM. V-O-A'S ED WARNER REPORTS SOME OF THEIR VIEWS AND
SUGGESTIONS FOR WAYS OF DEALING WITH SADDAM HUSSEIN.
TEXT: IT IS NOT EASY TO DEAL WITH A RULER WHO COMPARES HIMSELF
TO KING NEBUCHADNEZZAR, A MIGHTY MONARCH OF SOME 25-HUNDRED YEARS
AGO. BUT THAT IS HOW SADDAM HUSSEIN VIEWS HIS PLACE IN HISTORY,
ACCORDING TO STEVE YETIV, PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT OLD
DOMINION UNIVERSITY (IN VIRGINIA). SO THE IRAQI LEADER IS
WILLING TO CONFRONT EVEN OVERWHELMING POWER.
AND THAT POWER HAS ITS LIMITS, SAYS PROFESSOR YETIV, WHO EXPECTS
ONLY MODEST ACCOMPLISHMENTS FROM THE CURRENT U-S AIR ATTACKS ON
IRAQ:
// YETIV ACT //
I THINK THAT THEY CAN DEGRADE ELMENTS OF HIS MILITARY
CAPABILITY, NOT THE CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS,
THOUGH, BECAUSE THOSE ARE EASY TO HIDE AND EASY TO START
UP AGAIN. BUT IT WILL HIT HIS PALACES. IT WILL HIT SOME
OF HIS COMMAND AND CONTROL, IT WILL COMPLICATE MATTERS
FOR THE REPUBLICAN GUARD. AND IT COULD - ALTHOUGH I
THINK THIS IS VERY UNLIKELY - GENERATE ENOUGH CHAOS IN
! BAGHDAD AND ENOUGH DISAPPOINTMENT WITH SADDAM HUSSEIN
THAT SOME TYPE OF COUP ATTEMPT MIGHT BE MADE MORE
POSSIBLE.
// YETIV ACT //
BUT PROFESSOR YETIV SAYS ALL THE AMERICAN POWER AVAILABLE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO MAKE SADDAM HUSSEIN DO WHAT THE UNITED STATES WANTS.
A SUPERPOWER TODAY IS CONSTRAINED FROM THE KIND OF BRUTALITY
TAKEN FOR GRANTED IN THE PAST. SMALLER POWERS KNOW HOW TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THIS.
SOME U-S OFFICIALS SAY THE OBJECT IS TO OVERTHROW THE IRAQI
RULER. THAT WOULD BE DESIRABLE, RESPONDS RETIRED GENERAL WILLIAM
ODUM, FORMER DIRECTOR OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCY WHO IS NOW
WITH THE HUDSON INSTITUTE (A POLICY THINK TANK). BUT HE BELIEVES
IT IS EASIER SAID THAN DONE:
// ODUM ACT //
I THINK THE ONLY WAY THAT SADDAM WILL GO IS IF WE TAKE
GROUND FORCES AND GO TO BAGHDAD AND CAPTURE HIM. IF YOU
REALLY WANT TO END THE SADDAM PROBLEM, YOU HAVE TO
OCCUPY IRAQ. AND UNTIL WE ARE WILLING TO DO THAT, I
THINK IT IS JUST SO MUCH TALK.
// END ACT //
GENERAL ODUM NOTES THE UNITED STATES HAS HAD LITTLE SUCCESS AND
CONSIDERABLE GRIEF WHEN IT TRIES TO REMOVE A HEAD OF STATE NOT TO
ITS LIKING.
PERHAPS THE UNITED STATES SHOULD RELY ON DETERRENCE, SAYS GENERAL
ODUM, AS IT DID IN THE CASE OF THE SOVIET UNION. SADDAM HUSSEIN
MIGHT ACQUIRE HIS WEAPONS, BUT HE WOULD BE ON NOTICE THAT USING
THEM WOULD BRING MASSIVE RETALIATION.
THE IRAQI PEOPLE ARE PAYING THE PRICE OF THE BOMBING, SAYS TED
CARPENTER, DIRECTOR OF FOREIGN AND DEFENSE STUDIES AT
WASHINGTON'S CATO INSTITUTE:
// CARPENTER //
AS MUCH AS BILL CLINTON AND TONY BLAIR SAY THAT OUR
QUARREL IS NOT WITH THE IRAQI PEOPLE - IT IS WITH SADDAM
HUSSEIN AND HIS REGIME - THEY ARE NOT GOING AFTER SADDAM
WITH AN ASSASSINATION SQUAD. THEY ARE ATTACKING TARGETS
SOME OF WHICH ARE IN HEAVILY POPULATED AREAS. THAT MOST
CERTAINLY DOES AFFECT THE IRAQI PEOPLE
// END ACT //
THESE ATTACKS COME ON TOP OF YEARS OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS THAT
HAVE CLAIMED THOUSANDS OF IRAQI LIVES. HOW DO WE EXPECT THE
MUSLIM WORLD TO RESPOND TO THIS? ASKS MR CARPENTER.
SETTLE FOR SOMETHING LESS THAN PERFECTION, ADVISES MICHAEL
O'HANLON, A FOREIGN POLICY ANALYST AT THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION.
THE MAIN DANGER IS NUCLEAR WEAPONS, WHICH ARE NOT NOW IN SADDAM'S
ARSENAL. MR. O'HANLON BELIEVES IT IS WORTH COMPROMISING IN OTHER
RESPECTS TO KEEP THEM OUT:
// O'HANLON ACT //
I THINK THE ONLY REALISTIC WAY TO DO THAT AT THIS POINT
IS TO GO BACK TO THE ORIGINAL PROMISE THAT WE MADE HIM
IN 1991, BUT WHICH WE HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF YEARS: IF YOU EVER GET RID OF YOUR WEAPONS, WE
WILL LIFT SANCTIONS AND IN ADDITION, WE WILL STOP
FUNDING THE MILITARY OPPOSITION TO YOUR RULE IN IRAQ.
// END ACT //
MR. O'HANLON SAYS IT IS CRUCIAL TO MAINTAIN INSPECTIONS IN IRAQ,
WHICH THE BOMBING COULD ELIMINATE ENTIRELY. HE BELIEVES SADDAM
HUSSEIN NEEDS INCENTIVES AS WELL AS PRESSURES. SOMETIMES YOU HAVE
TO MAKE A DEAL WITH THE DEVIL, SAYS MR. O'HANLON, BECAUSE THE
ALTERNATIVE MAY BE WORSE. (SIGNED)
NEB/EW/RRM
. (SIGNED)
17-Dec-98 7:11 PM EST (0011 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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