DATE=11/20/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41926
TITLE=U-N / IRAQ
BYLINE=ANDRE DE NESNERA
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
// EDS -- THIS IS THE SECOND OF TWO REPORTS ON UNSCOM //
INTRO: U-N WEAPONS INSPECTORS ARE BACK TO WORK IN IRAQ AFTER
ANOTHER CRISIS WAS AVERTED -- BUT ONLY AFTER A LAST MINUTE
BACKDOWN FROM BAGDHAD IN THE FACE OF U-S MILITARY ACTION. V-O-A
CORRESPONDENT ANDRE DE NESNERA SPOKE WITH TWO FORMER U-N
INSPECTORS ABOUT THEIR EXPERIENCES WITH THE IRAQIS -- AND HE
FILED THIS REPORT FROM WASHINGTON.
TEXT: U-N WEAPONS INSPECTORS ARE BACK ON THE JOB AFTER IRAQI
LEADER SADDAM HUSSEIN PROMISED TO COOPERATE FULLY WITH THE UNITED
NATIONS BODY KNOWN AS "UNSCOM."
IRAQIS HAVE PROMISED TO COOPERATE WITH U-N INSPECTORS IN THE PAST
ONLY TO RENEGE ON THEIR PLEDGE. AND SEVERAL FORMER U-N INSPECTORS
QUESTION WHETHER THIS LATEST IRAQI ASSURANCE IS INDEED GENUINE.
TIM TREVAN -- NOW A DEFENSE ANALYST IN LONDON -- IS ONE OF THOSE
FORMER INSPECTORS. HE SAYS "UNSCOM" INSPECTORS AND IRAQ ENGAGE IN
AN ELABORATE "CAT AND MOUSE" GAME.
MR. TREVAN SAYS THE IRAQIS HAVE A CONSISTENT PATTERN OF BEHAVIOR
IN TRYING TO CONCEAL THEIR CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS
PROGRAMS. HE SAYS IT BEGINS BY IRAQ LYING ABOUT ITS CURRENT OR
PAST LEVELS OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION UNTIL U-N INSPECTORS
HAVE SOLID EVIDENCE TO THE CONTRARY -- WHICH MAKES THE IRAQI
STORY NO LONGER TENABLE.
// TREVAN ACT //
AT THAT STAGE, THE IRAQIS COME AND TRY TO ASCERTAIN FROM
'UNSCOM' EXACTLY WHAT 'UNSCOM' KNOWS, SO THEY CAN
MINIMIZE THEIR ADDITIONAL DECLARATIONS TO THE
INFORMATION THAT 'UNSCOM' HAS. 'UNSCOM' TRIES TO AVOID
LETTING ON PRECISELY WHAT IT KNOWS -- SO IRAQ MAKES A
NEW DECLARATION. THAT NEW DECLARATION IS STILL FALSE,
BUT IT JUST ADMITS THAT LITTLE BIT MORE TO COVER THE
DISCOVERIES OF 'UNSCOM.' 'UNSCOM' THEN HAS TO GO AND
FIND MORE EVIDENCE TO PROVE THE NEW STORY FALSE -- AND
SO IT GOES ON WITH THE IRAQIS RETREATING INCREMENTALLY
WITH EACH NEW SET OF CONTRADICTORY EVIDENCE THAT
'UNSCOM' UNEARTHS.
// END ACT //
MR. TREVAN SAYS HE DOES NOT BELIEVE IRAQ'S BASIC STRATEGY HAS
CHANGED.
COLONEL TERRY TAYLOR, ANOTHER ANALYST BASED IN LONDON, IS ALSO A
FORMER "UNSCOM" INSPECTOR -- AND HE HAS HAD SIMILAR EXPERIENCES.
// TAYLOR ACT //
COOPERATION -- I SUPPOSE I COULD SAY -- VARIED,
DEPENDING ON THE NATURE OF THE MISSION. WHEN ONE GOT
NEAR SENSITIVE INFORMATION OR SENSITIVE PLACES, THERE
WAS OBSTRUCTION AND DIFFICULTIES WERE RAISED AND
SOMETIMES THE SITUATION BECAME VERY TENSE.
// END ACT //
DESPITE IRAQ'S ATTEMPTS AT CONCEALEMENT, BOTH FORMER WEAPONS
INSPECTORS SAY THE U-N PROGRAM HAS BEEN VERY SUCCESSFUL IN
UNEARTHING BAGDHAD'S PROGRAMS TO PRODUCE WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION. ONCE AGAIN -- TIM TREVAN.
// 2ND TREVAN ACT //
IT HAS BEEN EXTRAORDINARILY SUCCESSFUL. AND IF YOU THINK
THAT THE STARTING POINT WAS THAT IRAQ DECLARED IT HAD
NO NUCLEAR PROGRAM, IT HAD NO BIOLOGICAL PROGRAM, IT
HAD NO 'SUPER GUNS' -- 'UNSCOM' AND THE I-A-E-A
(INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY) BETWEEN THEM, HAVE
PROVED EACH OF THOSE THREE STATEMENTS GROSSLY FALSE --
AND HAVE DESTROYED VAST QUANTITIES OF BUILDINGS,
EQUIPMENT AND MATERIALS FOR MAKING THOSE THREE TYPES OF
WEAPONS.
// END ACT //
TIM TREVAN SAYS WESTERN POLICY MAKERS MUST ADDRESS THE
FUNDAMENTAL QUESTION AS TO WHETHER IRAQI LEADER SADDAM HUSSEIN
WILL EVER GIVE UP HIS AMBITION TO OBTAIN WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION. THE FORMER WEAPONS INSPECTOR SAYS IF THE IRAQI
LEADER WILL NEVER GIVE UP THAT AMBITION, THEN ANY KIND OF
DISARMAMENT MONITORING IS ONLY TEMPORARY -- WHAT HE DESCRIBED AS
"A BAND-AID MEASURE." (SIGNED)
NEB/ADEN/KL
20-Nov-98 1:31 PM EST (1831 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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