DATE=11/17/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41894
TITLE=WHAT NEXT FOR IRAQ?
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRODUCTION: MOST OF THE WEST SEEMS TO AGREE THAT SADDAM
HUSSEIN IS A THREAT THAT NEEDS TO BE ELIMINATED OR RENDERED
HARMLESS, BUT HOW IS THIS TO BE DONE? THERE AGREEMENT ENDS,
BECAUSE IRAQ IS A COMPLEX CASE THAT DEFIES SIMPLE SOLUTIONS.
V-O-A'S ED WARNER REPORTS THE VIEWS OF TWO ANALYSTS STRUGGLING
WITH THE ISSUE.
TEXT: ONCE AGAIN, IRAQ'S SADDAM HUSSEIN HAS STARTED A CRISIS,
THEN ENDED IT. THE WEST'S PATIENCE WEARS THIN, BUT WHAT IS THE
NEXT STEP?
AN OCCUPATION ARMY CAN MARCH INTO BAGHDAD AND TAKE OVER, SAYS
ANTHONY SULLIVAN, AN ASSOCIATE AT THE CENTER FOR MIDDLE EASTERN
AND NORTH AFRICAN STUDIES AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN. BUT
SHORT OF THAT, MR SULLIVAN DOUBTS ALL OF SADDAM HUSSEIN'S WEAPONS
OF MASS DESTRUCTION CAN EVER BE FOUND. EVEN IF THEY ARE,
SCIENTISTS IN IRAQ CAN QUICKLY RECREATE THEM.
MR. SULLIVAN SAYS SADDAM HUSSEIN HAS PROVED HE CAN WITHSTAND THE
PUNISHMENT OF BOMBING, AND A SUSTAINED AIR CAMPAIGN COULD COST AN
ESTIMATED 10-THOUSAND IRAQI CASUALTIES, WHICH WOULD OUTRAGE THE
MUSLIM WORLD.
DETERRENCE WORKED WITH THE SOVIET UNION, SAYS MR. SULLIVAN. IT
SHOULD SUFFICE FOR A LESSER FIGURE LIKE SADDAM HUSSEIN. ANY
AGGRESSIVE MOVE ON HIS PART WOULD BE MET WITH MASSIVE
RETALIATION:
/// SULLIVAN ACT ///
IF SADDAM INVADES KUWAIT AGAIN, THAT WILL LEAD TO "SON
OF DESERT STORM." THERE IS NO QUESTION ABOUT THAT,
AND THERE SHOULD BE NO MISUNDERSTANDING ANYWHERE IN
THE WORLD ABOUT THAT. THAT WOULD BE THE WORST MISTAKE
SADDAM COULD EVER MAKE. HE MADE IT ONCE, AND HE SHOULD
NOT MAKE IT AGAIN.
/// END ACT ///
HE SHOULD ALSO BE KEPT IN PERSPECTIVE, SAYS JOHN LENCZOWSKI,
DIRECTOR OF THE INSTITUTE OF WORLD POLITICS, A GRADUATE SCHOOL IN
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS IN WASHINGTON. SADDAM HUSSEIN IS AN
UNDESIRABLE CHARACTER, TO SAY THE LEAST:
/// FIRST LENCZOWSKI ACT ///
BUT DOES THAT MEAN HIS UNDESIRABILITY CROSSES THE
THRESHOLD OF VIOLATING OUR MOST VITAL INTERESTS? I DO
NOT PERSONALLY POSSESS SUFFICIENT KNOWLEDGE TO BE ABLE
TO COME TO THAT CONCLUSION. IN THE ABSENCE OF A MORE
COMPELLING CASE, I HAVE TO CONCLUDE THAT HIS CONTINUED
EXISTENCE IN POWER, HOWEVER UNPLEASANT, IS NOT
NECESSARILY A THREAT TO OUR MOST VITAL INTERESTS.
/// END ACT ///
MR. LENCZOWSKI SAYS PRESSURE MUST BE MAINTAINED ON THE IRAQI
LEADER, BUT THERE MUST ALSO BE SOME INCENTIVE FOR HIM TO CHANGE:
/// SECOND LENCZOWSKI ACT ///
IF THE SANCTIONS WILL NOT BE LIFTED NO MATTER WHAT
SADDAM DOES, THEN IN EFFECT, THOSE SANCTIONS NO LONGER
EXERCISE ANY LEVERAGE WHATSOEVER, BECAUSE NO MATTER
WHAT HE DOES DOES, THE SANCTIONS WILL REMAIN. SO THE
NET RESULT IS THE SANCTIONS END UP HURTING LOTS OF
INNOCENT PEOPLE IN IRAQ, WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY OF THE
DESIRABLE RESULTS.
/// END ACT ///
IT IS U-S POLICY TO PRESERVE IRAQ AS A NATION. BUT IF SADDAM
HUSSEIN IS SOMEHOW OVERTHROWN, CAN THAT BE ASSURED? MR. SULLIVAN
DOUBTS THERE IS ANY LIKELY SUCCESSOR, AMONG THE LEADERS OF THE
FRAGMENTED OPPOSITION, WHO COULD HOLD THE STATE TOGETHER.
/// SECOND SULLIVAN ACT ///
IF THIS EVIL REGIME IS DESTROYED, YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE
A SHIA SOUTH, A SUNNI CENTER AND A KURDISH NORTH, AND
ALL SORTS OF PLAYERS ARE GOING TO GET INVOLVED ON THE
FIELD. THE IRANIANS WILL BE DELIGHTED. YOU MAY HAVE A
NEW SHIA BLOC -- IRAN, [AND] SOUTHERN IRAQ, WHO KNOWS?
ARE WE THINKING OF THESE CONSEQUENCES?
/// END ACT ///
ANTHONY SULLIVAN AND JOHN LENCZOWSKI SAY THE IRAQI STATUS QUO IS
BAD ENOUGH, BUT IT COULD BE WORSE. (SIGNED)
NEB/EW/WTW
17-Nov-98 6:27 PM EST (2327 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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