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DATE=11/15/98
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
NUMBER=2-241702
TITLE=IRAQ CRISIS (L)
BYLINE=LAURIE KASSMAN
DATELINE=AMMAN, JORDAN
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 
INTRO:  IRAQI NEWSPAPERS ARE DECLARING VICTORY FOR SADDAM HUSSEIN
IN HIS LATEST SHOWDOWN WITH THE UNITED NATIONS.  BUT WASHINGTON 
AND LONDON ARE STILL NOT CONVINCED THE CRISIS IS OVER, AND 
NEITHER ARE IRAQ'S NEIGHBORS.  CORRESPONDENT LAURIE KASSMAN 
REPORTS FROM AMMAN.
TEXT:  IRAQI NEWSPAPERS ARE CLAIMING VICTORY, BUT RUSSIAN 
DIPLOMATS ARE EVACUATING THEIR FAMILIES, JUST IN CASE.  THE U-S 
MILITARY BUILD-UP CONTINUES IN THE GULF, BUT SO DO CONSULTATIONS 
AT U-N HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK.
A CRUISE MISSILE ATTACK WAS ABORTED AT THE LAST MINUTE SATURDAY 
AFTER BAGHDAD OFFERED TO RESUME COOPERATION WITH THE UNITED 
NATIONS.  BUT WASHINGTON SAYS IRAQ'S LETTER IS NOT UNEQUIVOCAL OR
UNCONDITIONAL AND A MILITARY STRIKE IS STILL AN OPTION.
IRAQ'S NEIGHBORS ARE CAUTIOUSLY WELCOMING THE APPARENT DIPLOMATIC
SOLUTION TO THE LATEST CRISIS, BUT ON THE STREETS OF ARAB 
CAPITALS THE MOOD IS STILL -- WAIT AND SEE.
SOME ARAB DIPLOMATS DESCRIBE THE SUBDUED REACTION THIS TIME 
AROUND AS SADDAM FATIGUE.  IRAQI DISSIDENT DHOGAN KHATIM SAYS 
THIS CRISIS IS DIFFERENT FROM PAST CONFRONTATIONS.  HE SEES AN 
IMPORTANT SHIFT IN WORLD ATTITUDES TOWARD IRAQ.
                       /// KHATIM ACT ///
         SOMEHOW I BELIEVE, ACCORDING TO MY ANALYSIS, THAT THERE 
         IS AN ATTITUDE THAT IS GOING TO PUT AN END TO HIS GAME. 
         HOW I DO NOT KNOW.  IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY.  BUT, I
         THINK THE WORLD IS PREPARED TO DEAL WITH HIM THIS TIME.
                         /// END ACT ///
MR. KHATIM IS A MEMBER OF THE POLITBURO OF AN AMMAN-BASED IRAQI 
OPPOSITION MOVEMENT, THE IRAQI NATIONAL ACCORD.  HE SAYS THE U-N 
EMBARGO HAS NOT BEEN AN EFFECTIVE DIPLOMATIC TOOL AGAINST SADDAM 
HUSSEIN, BUT HE IS NOT SURE MILITARY STRIKES ARE THE ANSWER 
EITHER.
                       /// KHATIM ACT ///
         IT DEPENDS ON WHAT ARE THE TARGETS, FOR HOW LONG, AND 
         WHAT ARE THE OBJECTIVES.  IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY.  
         EFFECTIVENESS?  IT MIGHT WEAKEN THE REGIME.  IT MIGHT 
         BREAK THE BACKBONE OF THE REGIME.  IT MIGHT JUST PASS 
         LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONES.
                         /// END ACT ///
IN BAGHDAD, IRAQI OFFICIALS SAY A U-S ATTACK WOULD NOW BE 
CONSIDERED NAKED AGGRESSION.  THE RULING BAATH PARTY NEWSPAPER 
"AL THAWRA" BOASTS THE LETTER TO THE UNITED NATIONS HAS PULLED 
THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER THE AMERICAN ADMINISTRATION.  AN EDITORIAL
IN THE NEWSPAPER RUN BY SADDAM HUSSEIN'S SON CALLS THE U-S 
THREATS OF MILITARY ACTION A CRUEL JOKE.   (SIGNED)
NEB/LMK/DW/RAE
15-Nov-98 9:13 AM EST (1413 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.