DATE=11/13/98
TYPE=ENGLISH PROGRAMS FEATURE
NUMBER=7-30877
TITLE=CONFRONTING DICTATORS
BYLINE=JUDITH LATHAM
TELEPHONE=619-3464
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
EDITOR=GARY EDQUIST
CONTENT = (TAPE CUTS IN AUDIO SERVICES)
INTRO: ONCE AGAIN THE UNITED STATES IS THREATENING TO USE
MILITARY FORCE AGAINST A DICTATOR. VOA'S JUDITH LATHAM
HAS TALKED WITH U-S POLICYMAKERS AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS
ANALYSTS ABOUT THE EFFECT ON WORLD PEACE WHEN MILITARY
THREATS ARE MADE, AND THEN WITHDRAWN. HERE'S ______
WITH A REPORT.
TEXT: WHEN IRAQ STOPPED ALL COOPERATION WITH THE U-N ARMS
INSPECTORS AT THE END OF OCTOBER, IT LED TO A CRISIS.
THE UNITED STATES SAYS IRAQ CAN AVOID ATTACK BY PUBLICLY
REVERSING ITS DECISION TO HALT THE WORK OF THE
INSPECTORS.
IN THE BALKANS LAST MONTH, NATO BACKED OFF ON ITS THREAT
TO USE FORCE AGAINST YUGOSLAVIA WHEN PRESIDENT SLOBODAN
MILOSEVIC SIGNED A CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT. THERE ARE
REPORTS THE YUGOSLAV LEADER HAS NOT FULLY COMPLIED WITH
THE AGREEMENT, AND NATO SAYS THE THREAT OF AIR STRIKES
IS STILL IN EFFECT. BUT ROBERT WALKER, SENIOR ADVISOR
AT THE RAND CORPORATION IN WASHINGTON, D-C, AND FORMER
AMBASSADOR TO NATO FROM JULY 1993 UNTIL JANUARY OF THIS
YEAR, SAYS HE DOUBTS NATO WILL ACT.
TAPE: CUT ONE -- WALKER (0:28)
"THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SERIOUS QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER
NATO WOULD EMPLOY AIR POWER OR ANY OTHER KIND OF
MILITARY FORCE TO BACK UP THIS AGREEMENT. I NOTE, FOR
EXAMPLE, THAT THE NATO ALLIES ONLY TOOK THE DECISION
ACTUALLY TO USE FORCE AFTER IT HAD BECOME APPARENT THAT
THERE WAS ABOUT TO BE AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE U-S
NEGOTIATOR MR. HOLBROOKE AND PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC. SO,
WE STILL DO NOT KNOW, WILL THE NATO ALLIES ACT IF THIS
AGREEMENT DOESN'T WORK?"
TEXT: CRITICS OF U-S FOREIGN POLICY HAVE COMPLAINED THAT THE
UNITED STATES HAS NOT BEEN FORCEFUL ENOUGH IN DEALING
WITH DICTATORS, AND THEY POINT TO YUGOSLAVIA AND IRAQ AS
INSTANCES WHERE U-S WORDS AND ACTIONS ARE NOT IN TANDEM.
RETIRED CAREER DIPLOMAT HELMUT SONNENFELDT, NOW WITH THE
BROOKINGS INSTITUTION, SAYS THE ADMINISTRATION HAS BEEN
RELUCTANT TO USE FORCE WHEN CONFRONTING DICTATORS.
TAPE: CUT TWO -- SONNENFELDT (0:54)
"THERE IS AN AUTOCRAT OR DICTATOR INVOLVED IN EACH OF
THOSE SITUATIONS, AND THESE PEOPLE ARE EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO NEGOTIATE WITH. (OPT) BUT IN THE END, I
TEND TO AGREE THAT, AT LEAST RECENTLY, THERE HAS BEEN A
LOT OF THREATENING IN THE HOPE THE THREATS WILL BE
CREDIBLE AND THAT [MR.] MILOSEVIC IN SERBIA AND SADDAM
HUSSEIN IN IRAQ WILL FEEL SUFFICIENTLY PRESSURED TO
PARTICIPATE IN A REASONABLE NEGOTIATION. AND THEN WE
HAVE IN THE LAST YEAR AT LEAST TRIED TO AVOID AS LONG AS
POSSIBLE THE ACTUAL USE OF MILITARY FORCE. (END OPT) AND
THE UPSHOT IS, UNFORTUNATELY THESE CULPRITS GET AWAY
WITH THINGS THEY OUGHTN'T TO, AND THAT DOES LEAVE THE
ADMINISTRATION OPEN TO CRITICISM THAT WE'RE NOT USING A
SUFFICIENTLY FIRM HAND. IT'S HARD TO TELL WHAT
MOTIVATES PEOPLE LIKE MILOSEVIC OR SADDAM HUSSEIN. BUT I
THINK THEY'RE TESTING TO SEE WHERE THE LINES ARE, AND
THEY PUSH AS FAR AS THEY CAN."
TEXT: MR. SONNENFELDT SAYS U-S RELUCTANCE TO USE FORCE MAY
HAVE ACTUALLY WEAKENED U-S FOREIGN POLICY AND EMBOLDENED
YUGOSLAVIA'S SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC AND IRAQ'S SADDAM
HUSSEIN.
TAPE: CUT THREE -- SONNENFELDT (0:49)
"I ASSUME HE FELT REASONABLY SAFE TO NOT ONLY IGNORE THE
RESOLUTIONS BUT TO BRAZENLY FLOUT THEM AS FAR AS AS
COOPERATION WITH UNSCOM IS CONCERNED. OF COURSE, HE HAS
SENSED THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SECURITY COUNCIL AND
DIFFERENCES IN THE OLD COALITION THAT WAS PUT TOGETHER
IN THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION AT THE TIME OF THE PERSIAN
GULF WAR IN 1990 AND '91. SO, HE EXPLOITS THESE
DIFFERENCES, AND THE OBVIOUS HESITATION BY THE UNITED
STATES TO USE FORCE. I'M AFRAID THE VACILLATIONS AND
THE OSTENTATIOUS DISPLAY OF FORCE, AS IN THE CASE OF
BOSNIA FLY-BYES AND MANEUVERS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD,
PROBABLY HAVE UNDERMINED THE EFFICACY OF USING MERELY
THREATS, AND AT SOME POINT I THINK CREDIBILITY WILL HAVE
TO BE RESTORED."
TEXT: MR. SONNENFELDT SAYS THE UNITED STATES MAY HAVE
UNWITTINGLY ENCOURAGED SADDAM HUSSEIN'S OCTOBER DEFIANCE
OF U-N RESOLUTIONS.
TAPE: CUT FOUR -- SONNENFELDT (0:23)
"I MUST SAY THE PRESUMPTION IS VERY STRONG THAT THE U-S
HANDLING OF IRAQ THIS YEAR PARTICULARLY HAS FURTHER
COMPLICATED THE ISSUE AND I THINK MERELY POSTPONED THE
DAY WHEN THE U-S WILL HAVE TO USE MASSIVE FORCE. IN
THINK IN FEBRUARY THE U-S WAS WILLING ENOUGH TO LET KOFI
ANNAN GIVE IT A TRY AND HOLD HIM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
AGREEMENT IF IT FAILED."
TEXT: (OPT) DESPITE REPORTS THAT THE UNITED STATES IS VERY
CLOSE TO EXERCISING A MILITARY OPTION, HELMUT
SONNENFELDT SAYS HE IS SKEPTICAL.
TAPE: CUT FIVE -- SONNENFELDT (0:32)
"THERE WERE REPORTS LIKE THAT IN THE CASE OF KOSOVO --
THE 'CLOCK IS TICKING,' 'IT'S A MATTER OF DAYS, NOT
WEEKS,' WHATEVER THE PHRASES WERE -- AND THEN THERE IS A
SLIGHT CONCILIATORY MOVE BY MILOSEVIC, AND THINGS ARE
PUT ON HOLD. AND WHO KNOWS, SADDAM HUSSEIN -- IT'S
CONCEIVABLE THAT THE ADMINISTRATION, AND THE PRESIDENT
HIMSELF, FEELS THERE'S NO ALTERNATIVE BUT TO LAUNCH A
MASSIVE ATTACK. BUT, I'M HESITANT TO MAKE PREDICTIONS
BECAUSE I'VE SEEN TOO MANY OF THESE THREATS WHICH WERE
THEN SOMEHOW NOT EXECUTED AT THE LAST MINUTE." (END OPT)
TEXT: MR. SONNENFELDT SAYS THE UNITED STATES SHOULD BE FAR
MORE CAREFUL ABOUT USING THREATS OF MILITARY FORCE AND
ACTING AS IF THEY WERE IMMINENT, AND THEN DOING NOTHING.
TAPE: CUT SIX -- SONNENFELDT (0:56)
"I THINK WE REALLY SHOULD NOT WASTE OUR CREDIBILITY.
THREATS THAT DON'T PRODUCE REAL CONCESSIONS, AND THEN
ARE NOT EXECUTED, I THINK ARE COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE. I
THINK THE U-S HAS TO MAKE AN EFFORT TO TRY AND FIND A
SETTLEMENT, AND IT HAS TO TRY AND GET ALLIES. BUT I
THINK WHEN THAT EFFORT RUNS OUT, I THINK THE U-S OUGHT
TO RESORT TO FORCE AND MAKE VERY CLEAR TO MILOSEVIC AND
TO SADDAM HUSSEIN THAT THIS IS GOING TO GO ON
CONTINUOUSLY, OR INTERMITTANTLY, AND WILL BECOME MORE
AND MORE DAMAGING. BUT, I THINK THIS HASN'T BEEN A GOOD
YEAR IN TERMS OF THREATS OF FORCE, AND THE ONLY MILITARY
ACTION THAT WE HAVE TAKEN HAS BEEN IN RESPONSE TO THE
BOMBING OF THE EMBASSIES IN EAST AFRICA. BUT, I DON'T
THINK THAT REALLY DID MUCH GOOD AS FAR AS SADDAM HUSSEIN
AND MILOSEVIC WERE CONCERNED IN BRINGING THEM TO A MORE
REASONABLE POSTURE."
TEXT: HELMUT SONNENFELDT OF THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION IN
WASHINGTON, D-C, ON THE SUBJECT OF CONFRONTING
DICTATORS. (SIGNED)
13-Nov-98 3:17 PM EST (2017 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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