DATE=11/11/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41830
TITLE=IRAQ/U-S
BYLINE=DOUGLAS ROBERTS
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: WEDNESDAY'S WITHDRAWAL OF U-N PERSONNEL FROM BAGHDAD HAS
HEIGHTENED EXPECTATIONS OF A U-S MILITARY STRIKE, TO FORCE IRAQ
TO RESUME FULL COOPERATION WITH THE U-N WEAPONS COMMISSION.
CORRESPONDENT DOUGLAS ROBERTS REPORTS ON THE LATEST IN THE
SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF CRISES IN THE GULF.
TEXT: THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION CAME UNDER SHARP DOMESTIC
CRITICISM FOLLOWING THE LAST CONFRONTATION WITH IRAQ. THAT
SHOWDOWN IN FEBRUARY WAS RESOLVED WHEN U-N SECRETARY GENERAL KOFI
ANNAN SECURED A COMMITMENT FROM BAGHDAD TO RESUME FULL
COOPERATION WITH THE U-N WEAPONS COMMISSION.
SINCE THEN, DESPITE CONTINUED PROVOCATIONS FROM IRAQ, THE U-S
GOVERNMENT APPEARED TO BE DISTANCING ITSELF FROM THE THREAT OF
FORCE TO COMPEL COMPLIANCE WITH U-N DEMANDS FOR THE ELIMINATION
OF IRAQ'S WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION.
CRITICS CHARGED THE ADMINISTRATION WAS, IN EFFECT, ABANDONING ITS
POLICY ON IRAQ BECAUSE THEY SAID -- WITHOUT THE THREAT OF FORCE,
THAT POLICY IS SIMPLY NOT VIABLE.
THE CRITICISM REACHED A CRESCENDO IN EARLY AUGUST AFTER THE
SEEMINGLY LOW-KEY U-S RESPONSE TO BAGHDAD'S DECLARATION IT WOULD
NO LONGER ALLOW SPOT INSPECTIONS BY MEMBERS OF THE U-N WEAPONS
COMMISSION.
CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES MIDEAST ANALYST
JUDITH KIPPER SAYS BAGHDAD INTERPRETED THE U-S REACTION AS A SIGN
OF WEAKNESS.
/// KIPPER ACT ///
WELL, I THINK THIS, YOU KNOW THE AUGUST ANNOUNCEMENT AND
THE MORE RECENT ONE OF PREVENTING THE INSPECTORS FROM
DOING THEIR JOBS WAS INEVITABLE. THE IRAQIS HAD BEEN
SETTING THE AGENDA, CREATING CRISES EVERY THREE TO
SIX-MONTHS FOR THE LAST NINE-YEARS. AND I THINK THIS IS
TOTALLY PREDICTABLE. THEY KEEP UPPING THE ANTE TO FORCE
THE U-N SECURITY COUNCIL TO MAKE SOME CHOICES ABOUT
MAINTAINING THE SANCTIONS REGIME. AND I THINK THE
IRAQIS HAVE CALCULATED THAT A SERIOUS MILITARY STRIKE IS
UNLIKELY.
/// END ACT ///
BUT PRESSURE FOR MILITARY ACTION HAS BEEN BUILDING IN THE UNITED
STATES FOR MANY WEEKS. EDITORIALS IN LEADING AMERICAN NEWSPAPERS
SAY THE ADMINISTRATION MUST BE PREPARED TO USE FORCE TO COMPEL
IRAQ'S COMPLIANCE AND TO ENSURE SADDAM HUSSEIN'S GOVERNMENT IS
GIVEN NO OPPORTUNITY TO REBUILD ITS ARSENAL OF NUCLEAR, CHEMICAL,
AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS.
A TOP NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR IN THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION,
RICHARD HAAS, IS AMONG MANY HERE WHO MAINTAIN WASHINGTON NEEDS NO
FURTHER AUTHORIZATION FOR AN ATTACK ON IRAQ.
// OPT // WRITING IN "THE WASHINGTON TIMES NEWSPAPER" THIS WEEK,
MR. HAAS SAYS BAGHDAD IS VIOLATING THE TERMS OF THE CEASEFIRE
THAT ENDED THE GULF WAR (NEARLY EIGHT-YEARS AGO), SO THE UNITED
STATES AND ITS ALLIES ARE NO LONGER REQUIRED TO HOLD BACK. //
END OPT //
MR. HAAS ARGUES AGAINST A LIMITED BOMBING CAMPAIGN OF A FEW DAYS
OR MORE. HE SAYS ONCE THE DUST HAS SETTLED, SADDAM HUSSEIN WOULD
LOOM LARGER THAN EVER AND THERE WOULD STILL BE NO WEAPONS
INSPECTIONS.
HE SAYS THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MOUNT A HEAVY AND SUSTAINED
CAMPAIGN, ATTACKING SUSPECTED WEAPONS SITES AND IRAQI MILITARY
TARGETS.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS SOME U-S ALLIES IN THE GULF SHARE THAT
VIEW. THERE IS LITTLE PUBLIC BACKING FOR MILITARY ACTION AGAINST
BAGHDAD ANYWHERE IN THE ARAB WORLD. BUT WESTERN OFFICIALS SAY,
SOME OF THE GULF ARAB LEADERS SAY IN PRIVATE THEY WOULD FAVOR AN
ATTACK, AS LONG AS IT IS AIMED AT DOING REAL DAMAGE TO THE IRAQI
WAR MACHINE.
THE DEPUTY CHIEF OF STAFF OF KUWAIT'S ARMED FORCES, GENERAL FAHAD
AL-AMIR, OPENLY EXPRESSED THAT VIEW IN AN APPEARANCE THIS WEEK AT
WASHINGTON'S NEAR EAST INSTITUTE.
/// AL-AMIR ACT ///
IF THE STRIKE IS GOING TO BE TO DAMAGE SADDAM HUSSEIN
AND HIS ARSENAL, EVERYBODY WILL BE FOR THAT. IF THE
STRIKE IS JUST A MATTER OF SHOWING FORCE, THEN I BELIEVE
THERE ARE SOME OF THE G-C-C (GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL)
COUNTRIES ARE NOT GOING TO SUPPORT THIS.
/// END ACT ///
GENERAL AMIR ACKNOWLEDGED THE WIDESPREAD SYMPATHY IN THE ARAB
WORLD FOR THE PLIGHT OF THE IRAQI PEOPLE, AND SAID HE HOPES
SADDAM HUSSEIN WILL BACK DOWN IN HIS LATEST CONFRONTATION WITH
THE UNITED NATIONS IN ORDER TO SPARE THE IRAQIS FURTHER
SUFFERING.
JUDITH KIPPER THINKS BAGHDAD MAY RELENT ONCE IT SEES A MILITARY
STRIKE IS IMMINENT.
/// KIPPER ACT ///
IF, AT SOME POINT IN THE DISCUSSIONS, THE IRAQIS THINK
THAT A REAL MILITARY STRIKE THAT WOULD DAMAGE THE
PILLARS OF POWER BECOMES MORE OF A LIKELIHOOD, THEN THEY
OF COURSE HAVE TIME TO BACK DOWN.
/// END ACT ///
BUT FOR THE MOMENT, THERE IS NO SIGN OF A SOFTENING FROM THE
IRAQI LEADERSHIP, EVEN AS THE UNITED STATES ONCE AGAIN REINFORCES
ITS MILITARY PRESENCE IN THE GULF. (SIGNED)
NEB/DBR/RAE
11-Nov-98 2:17 PM EST (1917 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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