DATE=11/9/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41804
TITLE=IRAQI COMPLIANCE
BYLINE=LAURIE KASSMAN
DATELINE=LONDON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: BRITAIN'S DEFENSE SECRETARY IS VISITING GULF STATES IN
THE WAKE OF A U-S MISSION TO RALLY SUPPORT FOR MILITARY ACTION IF
IRAQ CONTINUES TO BAN U-N WEAPONS INSPECTIONS. CORRESPONDENT
LAURIE KASSMAN IN LONDON TAKES A LOOK AT THE NEVER-ENDING
CONFRONTATIONS BETWEEN IRAQ AND THE UNITED NATIONS.
TEXT: LAST FEBRUARY, U-N SECRETARY GENERAL KOFI ANAN BROKERED AN
AGREEMENT WITH IRAQI LEADER SADDAM HUSSEIN TO GIVE U-N INSPECTORS
UNFETTERED ACCESS TO SITES HE HAD PREVIOUSLY DECLARED OFF-LIMITS.
U-N ALLIES WERE TRIUMPHANT, BUT MANY ANALYSTS AND DIPLOMATS WERE
ALREADY ASKING HOW LONG IT WOULD LAST.
CONFRONTATION BETWEEN BAGHDAD AND U-N INSPECTORS HAS BECOME AN
ALL TOO FAMILIAR PATTERN SINCE SANCTIONS WERE IMPOSED EIGHT YEARS
AGO. BUT, THE SECURITY COUNCIL WILL NOT VOTE TO LIFT TOUGH
ECONOMIC SANCTIONS UNTIL U-N INSPECTORS VERIFY THAT BAGHDAD HAS
COMPLIED WITH U-N DEMANDS TO SCRAP ITS CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL
WEAPONS.
NOW, BAGHDAD AGAIN HAS SUSPENDED ITS COOPERATION WITH U-N
INSPECTORS UNTIL THE SECURITY COUNCIL REVIEWS ITS SANCTIONS
POLICY.
MIDDLE EAST SCHOLAR FRED HALLIDAY OF THE LONDON SCHOOL OF
ECONOMICS SAYS SADDAM HUSSEIN IS CONVINCED THE UNITED STATES WILL
NEVER APPROVE LIFTING SANCTIONS SO HE HAS NO INCENTIVE TO PLAY BY
THE RULES.
/// HALLIDAY ACT ///
IRAQIS HAVE BEEN TALKING FOR THE PAST YEAR OF THE NEED
FOR A TIMETABLE TO END SANCTIONS AND A LIGHT AT THE END
OF THE TUNNEL, WHICH MEANS LIFTING OF ALL SANCTIONS AND
NOT ONLY THE ABILITY TO EXPORT AS MUCH OIL AS THEY WANT
BUT TO IMPORT WHATEVER THEY WANT AND AN END TO ALL U-N
INSPECTIONS. THEY CALCULATED THEY'LL NEVER GET IT.
THEY CALCULATED, AS MANY WESTERN POLITICIANS HAVE SAID,
THAT AS LONG AS THIS REGIME IS THERE, AS LONG AS SADDAM
HUSSEIN IS THERE, SANCTIONS ARE NOT GOING TO BE LIFTED.
THEY THEREFORE HAD NO INCENTIVE FOR GOOD BEHAVIOR.
/// END ACT ///
FRUSTRATED U-N OFFICIALS AND WESTERN ALLIES ONCE AGAIN ARE
DEMANDING THAT IRAQ END ITS LATEST BAN ON WEAPONS INSPECTIONS.
U-S AND BRITISH OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN TOURING THE GULF TO RALLY
SUPPORT FOR MILITARY ACTION IF IRAQ DOES NOT COMPLY. BUT GULF
LEADERS APPEAR RELUCTANT, AT LAST PUBLICLY, TO SIGN ON TO ANY
MILITARY STRIKE AGAINST SADDAM HUSSEIN.
MR. HALLIDAY SAYS BAGHDAD IS COUNTING ON THAT RESISTANCE AND ON
THE SPLIT AMONG U-N SECURITY COUNCIL MEMBERS OVER USING THE
THREAT OF FORCE AS AN EFFECTIVE DIPLOMATIC TOOL AGAINST SADDAM
HUSSEIN.
/// HALLIDAY ACT TWO ///
THE IRAQIS BELIEVE THAT THE DEPTH OF PUBLIC OPINION IN
THE ARAB WORLD AND THE RESISTANCE OF COUNTRIES LIKE
FRANCE AND RUSSIA AS WELL AS CHINA TO MILITARY ACTION
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROTECT THEM FROM MILITARY ATTACK.
/// END ACT ///
SADDAM HUSSEIN ALSO IS COUNTING ON THE DIMINISHING INTERNATIONAL
SUPPORT FOR CONTINUING THE SANCTIONS BECAUSE OF THEIR DEVASTATING
IMPACT ON THE IRAQI PEOPLE.
/// HALLIDAY ACT THREE ///
SADDAM ALSO IS CALCULATING THAT THE SANCTIONS REGIME IS
ERODING AND HE CAN TRADE MORE WITH NEIGHBORS LIKE TURKEY
AND IRAN, AND THEREFORE HE DOESN'T ACTUALLY THINK THE
WEST CAN KEEP THE SANCTIONS UP FOR THAT MUCH LONGER.
/// END ACT ///
MIDDLE EAST EXPERT AMIN SAIKAL SUGGESTS THE LATEST CONFRONTATION
IS ROOTED IN A BASIC CLASH OF PERCEPTIONS. IN A RECENT
EDITORIAL, THE AUSTRALIA-BASED SCHOLAR WRITES OF THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN WHAT IS POLITICALLY ACCEPTABLE TO WASHINGTON AND WHAT IS
TECHNICALLY VERIFIABLE.
HE SAYS BAGHDAD BELIEVES WASHINGTON IS USING THE INSPECTION
DISPUTE TO CREATE INTERNAL CONDITIONS OF HARDSHIP AND DISSENT.
MR SAIKAL SAYS IT WILL NOT BE POSSIBLE TO DECLARE IRAQ
COMPLETELY FREE OF CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS BECAUSE THE
WEAPONS ARE EASY TO HIDE.
SOME ANALYSTS ARGUE THAT A MILITARY STRIKE WOULD END IRAQ'S
COOPERATION WITH THE U-N INSPECTIONS ALTOGETHER. BUT OTHERS
ARGUE THAT MILITARY ACTION AGAINST SPECIFIC TARGETS IN IRAQ COULD
HELP WEAKEN SADDAM HUSSEIN'S GRIP ON POWER. (SIGNED)
NEB/LK/JWH
09-Nov-98 12:00 PM EST (1700 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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