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Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

CIA: Iraq could revive arsenals

BY JOHN DIAMOND The Associated Press

WASHINGTON - Iraq could rebuild its chemical and biological arsenals if international arms inspections ceased, the CIA said Monday as the Clinton administration prepared options on the latest standoff.

Iraq has "the capability to quickly resurrect weapons of mass destruction production absent U.N. sanctions," the CIA reported to lawmakers. Although the report predates the latest flurry of activity involving Iraq, a U.S. intelligence official said Monday that the assessment reflects the agency's current thinking.

Administration officials are debating whether continued inspections or an open-ended threat of military force can root out Iraq's suspected secret weapons cache. Ten days ago, Saddam Hussein declared a halt to cooperation with the U.N. Special Commission that searches for chemical and biological weapons. President Clinton's national security team has developed options for him that include airstrikes.

A concern that could rule out strikes is that Iraq might respond by permanently banning the international search for illegal chemical and biological weapons.

At the State Department, spokesman James Rubin sought to dispel suggestions that the United States was alone in its effort to isolate and punish Iraq for noncompliance with international arms inspectors.

"What has happened in recent weeks is we've seen the coalescing and the clarity of the entire world that Iraq is in noncompliance, that this current problem is Iraq's fault," Rubin said. "The blame of the whole world is resting clearly and squarely on the doorstep of Iraq and the shoulders of Saddam Hussein. ..¤. We don't feel lonely."

Saudi and Egyptian officials have urged the United States and the international community to pursue diplomatic rather than military solutions to the standoff. And former Irish Prime Minister Albert Reynolds, who helped lay the groundwork for the Northern Ireland peace accord, said Monday he believed Iraq had met 80 percent of U.N. demands on weapons and that the "remaining 20 percent, in my view, does not justify a strike or a return to conflict."

Once again, it appeared that only Britain was ready to join the United States in a threat of force against Iraq. British Defense Secretary George Robertson warned during a visit to Kuwait on Monday that the international community's patience was "draining away."

The CIA concluded that despite years of U.N. inspections and the destruction wrought by the 1991 Persian Gulf War, Iraq retains the key equipment and technology needed to make chemical and biological weapons and mount them on missiles.

"Iraq could retain a small force of Scud-type missiles, a small stockpile of chemical and biological munitions, and the capability to quickly resurrect weapons of mass destruction production absent U.N. sanctions" and international inspections, the CIA wrote. It also said Baghdad "continues to withhold information about (nuclear) enrichment techniques, testing data, foreign procurement, and weapons design. .¤.¤. Iraq could be conducting covert nuclear research and development that would be difficult to detect."

Defense Intelligence Agency assessments, also forwarded to Congress, reached similar conclusions, though the DIA said Iraq's ability to revitalize chemical and biological weapons production was "limited."

"It is certain that if sanctions are lifted, Iraq will proceed expeditiously with its nuclear, chemical and biological programs as well as the corresponding delivery systems," DIA concluded.

U.N. inspections have uncovered a great deal about Iraqi weapons programs, but U.S. officials are concerned about what has been missed. For example, U.S. intelligence suspects that Iraq has two Scud missiles stashed away and may have the components to build more.

Iraq admitted to producing 85,000 liters of the biological agent anthrax, but U.N. inspectors estimate production amounts were three to four times more than declared. John Pike of the Federation of American Scientists, a Washington think tank that follows national security matters, said U.S. and European laboratories have found evidence of the nerve gas VX on spent Iraqi shells.

Mideast expert Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said the U.N. Special Commission "may never be able to determine the exact types of biological weapons Iraq did or did not develop .¤.¤. or what it has done covertly" since the Gulf War.

Copyright © 1998, Lincoln Journal Star and/or Associated Press. All rights reserved.



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