DATE=11/07/98
TYPE=ON THE LINE
NUMBER=1-00685
TITLE=THE THREAT FROM IRAQ
EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY - 619-0037
CONTENT=
THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE
ANNCR: ON THE LINE -- A DISCUSSION OF UNITED STATES
POLICIES AND CONTEMPORARY ISSUES. THIS WEEK,
"THE THREAT FROM IRAQ." HERE IS YOUR HOST,
ROBERT REILLY.
HOST: HELLO AND WELCOME TO ON THE LINE. IRAQI
DICTATOR SADDAM HUSSEIN HAS ENDED ALL
COOPERATION WITH UNITED NATIONS WEAPONS
INSPECTORS. HE HAS HALTED THE U-N MONITORING
PROGRAMS PUT IN PLACE TO INSURE THAT IRAQ DOES
NOT REBUILD ITS BIOLOGICAL, CHEMICAL AND NUCLEAR
WEAPONS CAPABILITIES. THE U-N SECURITY COUNCIL
HAS CONDEMNED IRAQ'S ACTION AND DEMANDED ITS
REVERSAL. PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON CALLED
SADDAM'S BEHAVIOR "A CLEAR VIOLATION" OF U-N
RESOLUTIONS. MR. CLINTON SAID THAT "WE SHOULD
KEEP ALL OUR OPTIONS OPEN. . .AND THEN DO WHAT'S
BEST FOR THE INTEGRITY OF THE UNITED NATIONS AND
THE SECURITY INTERESTS OF THE PEOPLE OF THE
UNITED STATES."
JOINING ME TODAY TO DISCUSS THE NEW THREAT FROM
IRAQ AND U.S. POLICY ARE THREE EXPERTS. DAVID
WURMSER IS RESIDENT FELLOW AT THE AMERICAN
ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE AND AUTHOR OF THE UPCOMING
BOOK, TYRANNY'S ALLY: HOW SADDAM IS DEFEATING
THE UNITED STATES; GARY MILHOLLIN IS DIRECTOR
OF THE WISCONSIN PROJECT ON NUCLEAR ARMS
CONTROL; AND KENNETH TIMMERMAN IS PUBLISHER OF
THE IRAN BRIEF, A MONTHLY NEWSLETTER. WELCOME
TO THE PROGRAM.
DAVID WURMSER, OF COURSE, THIS NEW THREAT IS AN
OLD THREAT. BUT HOW WOULD YOU CHARACTERIZE THE
NATURE OF SADDAM'S LATEST CHALLENGE TO THE
SECURITY COUNCIL?
WURMSER: I WOULD ACTUALLY CHARACTERIZE IT MOSTLY AS A
CLEANING UP. HE'S DONE SOME OF THE BIGGER
CHALLENGES OVER THE LAST YEAR. THIS IS SHUTTING
DOWN THE INSPECTIONS ALTOGETHER -- SOME OF THE
ONGOING MONITORING AND SO FORTH. HE'S ALREADY
ESSENTIALLY KICKED OUT THE INSPECTORS.
HOST: COULD YOU REPRISE THOSE? WHEN YOU SAY HE'S
ALREADY MET THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES OVER THE PAST
YEAR, YOU MEAN BY THAT WHAT?
WURMSER: FIRST OF ALL, HE WATERED DOWN -- HE ENTERED A
PROCESS OF NEGOTIATION OVER INSPECTIONS STARTING
LAST OCTOBER, NOVEMBER WITH US. WE SAID IT
WOULD NEVER HAPPEN. THEN IN FEBRUARY, MARCH, WE
WATERED DOWN THE WAY THE INSPECTIONS WOULD BE
RUN, SUCH THAT IT WOULDN'T BE CLEARLY JUST
EXPERTS IN THE INSPECTION PROGRAM. THERE WOULD
BE TIP-OFFS THROUGH SOME OF THE DIPLOMATS
INVOLVED AND SO FORTH IN INSPECTIONS AND SO ON.
THE SITES AND THE WAY WE WOULD INSPECT THE SITES
WERE WATERED DOWN. AND NOW, IN AUGUST, YOU HAD
HIM DECIDING TO EXPEL THE INSPECTORS. SO THIS
IS ONE OF THE LAST THINGS HE NEEDS TO DO TO
CLEAN UP SO THAT THERE ARE NO MORE INSPECTIONS
AND NO ON-GOING MONITORING OF WHAT HIS
ACTIVITIES ARE.
HOST: GARY MILHOLLIN, WHAT SHOULD THE RESPONSE TO THIS
LATEST CHALLENGE BE?
MILHOLLIN: I THINK IT'S TIME TO FACE THE REALITY AND TO
ACKNOWLEDGE THAT WE CAN'T MAKE PROGRESS, THAT
IS, THE WEST, CAN'T MAKE PROGRESS IN IRAQ UNLESS
WE'RE WILLING TO BACK UP THE INSPECTORS WITH THE
THREAT OF FORCE. THAT HAS ALWAYS BEEN NECESSARY
SINCE 1991. AND IT HAS BEEN DONE. I'VE TALKED
TO INSPECTORS WHO'VE TOLD THE IRAQIS, UNLESS YOU
LET US INTO THIS BUILDING, WE'RE GOING TO BOMB
IT. THERE'S NOT GOING TO BE A BUILDING. THEN
THE IRAQIS RELENTED AND LET THEM IN. UNLESS
YOU'RE WILLING TO DO IT THAT WAY, YOU'RE SIMPLY
WASTING YOUR TIME. AND I THINK THE CLINTON
ADMINISTRATION HAS GIVEN IRAQ THE IMPRESSION
THAT WE'RE NOT REALLY WILLING TO DO THAT. AND
THAT HAS, IN A WAY, SET THE STAGE FOR THE MOST
RECENT CRISIS, IN WHICH SADDAM IS NOW BOLDER.
HE DOESN'T THINK WE'RE GOING TO REACT STRONGLY,
SO HE'S TAKEN THE LAST STEP, WHICH IS TO SAY
THERE AREN'T GOING TO BE ANY MORE INSPECTIONS.
HOST: KEN TIMMERMAN, PRESIDENT CLINTON HAS DEPLOYED
TROOPS AND AIRCRAFT AND AIRCRAFT CARRIERS IN THE
PAST. SADDAM HAS BACKED DOWN IN THE PAST. WHAT
IF PRESIDENT CLINTON RESPONDS NOW, IN CONCERT
WITH THE U-N SECURITY COUNCIL, IN THIS WAY? DO
WE JUST GO THROUGH ANOTHER REPETITION OF WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST?
TIMMERMAN: IF THERE IS THE THREAT OF FORCE, OR THE USE OF
FORCE, WE CERTAINLY HAVE THE EQUIPMENT AND THE
MEN IN THE PERSIAN GULF REGION, IN THE ARABIAN
SEA TO HANDLE IT. THERE ARE OVER A HUNDRED AND
SEVENTY U.S. COMBAT AIRCRAFT IN THE REGION. WE
HAVE ONE AIRCRAFT CARRIER GROUP. WE HAVE AN
ASSAULT GROUP AS WELL IN THE ARABIAN SEA. WE
ARE ABLE TO HANDLE ANY KIND OF STRIKE THAT WOULD
BE NEEDED. I THINK THE PROBLEM, THOUGH, GOES
BEYOND JUST THAT. THE LAST TWO TIMES THAT THE
U.S. USED FORCE AGAINST IRAQ, IT WAS JUST CRUISE
MISSILES SENT OFF IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT,
ONCE AGAINST AN IRAQI INTELLIGENCE HEADQUARTERS
IN DOWNTOWN BAGHDAD IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.
AND THE SECOND ONE WAS AGAINST IRAQI AIR DEFENSE
POSITIONS SOUTH OF BAGHDAD AFTER SADDAM HAD
ATTACKED IN THE NORTH. I THINK NOW THOSE CRUISE
MISSILES ARE NOT ENOUGH. AND IF WE'RE GOING TO
GO IN AND MAKE A SERIOUS AND CREDIBLE DETERRENT
ATTACK -- BECAUSE THE QUESTION NOW IS TO DETER
SADDAM FROM ACTUALLY USING THE WEAPONS WHICH
HE'S HIDDEN FROM THE INSPECTORS -- I THINK WE
HAVE TO GO IN THERE A LOT MORE FORCEFULLY AND GO
IN THERE WITH MANNED AIRCRAFT AND TAKE SOME
FACILITIES OUT.
HOST: DAVID WURMSER, IS A MILITARY ACTION SUFFICIENT
TO MEET THIS NEW THREAT?
WURMSER: I THINK ANY STRATEGY ON BRINGING THIS IRAQ
SITUATION TO A CLOSE, WHICH WOULD INVOLVE THE
REMOVAL OF SADDAM HUSSEIN, WOULD INVOLVE SOME
SORT OF A MILITARY OPTION. BUT WHAT I WOULD
LIKE TO SEE IS THAT WE WOULD USE THE MILITARY
OPTION IN A WAY THAT DOES ADVANCE THE CAUSE OF
TRYING TO REMOVE SADDAM HUSSEIN. CLEARLY, WE
HAVE AN ACUTE PROBLEM HERE OF WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION. AND CLEARLY WE WOULD HAVE TO REACT
TO THAT, AT THE VERY LEAST TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROCESS OF HIS RECONSTITUTING OR REBUILDING HIS
PROGRAMS. BUT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THAT AS A
FIRST STEP IN A MORE AGGRESSIVE STRATEGY TO GET
RID OF SADDAM HUSSEIN. THAT WOULD INVOLVE
MILITARY FORCE, BUT IT WOULD INVOLVE MILITARY
FORCE NOT ONLY ON HIS WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION PROGRAMS BUT ON SOME OF THE THINGS
THAT REALLY KEEP THAT REGIME AFLOAT, WHICH ARE
THE MILITARY FORCES THAT PROTECT HIM, THE
MILITARY FORCES UPON WHICH HE DEPENDS IN ORDER
TO KEEP HIS ENEMIES AWAY FROM HIM.
HOST: LET'S TALK JUST FOR A MOMENT ABOUT THE THREAT HE
DOES REPRESENT WITH WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION,
THOSE THAT HE MAY STILL CONTINUE TO HAVE DESPITE
OVER FIVE YEARS OF U-N WEAPONS INSPECTIONS, AND
HOW QUICKLY HE COULD RECONSTITUTE HIS ABILITY.
GARY MILHOLLIN, YOU'RE AN EXPERT IN THAT AREA.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
MILHOLLIN: WE KNOW HE HAS MADE V-X NERVE GAS. WE DON'T
KNOW HOW MUCH HE HAS. WE ALSO THINK HE'S
WEAPONIZED IT INTO WARHEADS. SO LITERALLY, AS
WE SIT HERE, HE COULD VERY EASILY HAVE NUMEROUS
WARHEADS FILLED WITH V-X NERVE GAS READY TO USE.
THE SAME IS TRUE OF BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS. WE KNOW
HE HAS HAD AN AGGRESSIVE BIOLOGICAL WEAPON
PROGRAM. WE KNOW HE'S WEAPONIZED THAT, PUT IT
INTO WARHEADS. WE HAVE TO ASSUME THEY'RE READY
FOR USE. ALSO, WE CANNOT ACCOUNT FOR A NUMBER
OF MISSILES THAT WE KNOW HE HAS BEEN ABLE TO
BUILD ON HIS OWN AND THAT, FOR ALL WE KNOW,
COULD BE READY FOR LAUNCH. THEN THERE'S THE
NUCLEAR PROGRAM. HE STILL HAS HIS NUCLEAR
DESIGN TEAMS INTACT. THEY HAVEN'T FORGOTTEN
ANYTHING THEY LEARNED. AND THERE IS STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW GOOD THE DESIGN IS.
WE'VE HAD RECENT REPORTS THAT THERE ARE A NUMBER
OF WHAT ARE CALLED IMPLOSION PACKAGES READY TO
GO AS SOON AS SADDAM CAN SMUGGLE IN THE NUCLEAR
MATERIAL TO PUT IN THEM. SO, WITHOUT
INSPECTIONS, WE'RE NOT GOING TO KNOW HOW MUCH HE
HAS, WHETHER IT'S WEAPONIZED, WHETHER IT'S READY
TO GO AND WHO HE COULD HIT WITH IT. AND THAT
PUTS US BACK IN THE SITUATION WE WERE IN BEFORE
THE GULF WAR.
HOST: IN OTHER WORDS, IT'S A LITTLE DISHEARTENING,
AFTER YEARS OF INSPECTIONS, THAT HE COULD STILL
HAVE THIS KIND OF MATERIAL.
TIMMERMAN: YES, AND WHAT WE HAVE IS THE MOST RIGOROUS
INTERNATIONAL INSPECTION REGIME THAT HAS EVER
BEEN DEVISED, AND STILL, WITH THAT, DESPITE
THAT, SADDAM HAS BEEN ABLE TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING HIS WEAPONS. AND I THINK DAVID
REALLY MADE THE POINT THAT WE HAVE A DUAL
PROBLEM IN IRAQ. WE HAVE A SHORT TERM PROBLEM,
WHICH IS SADDAM'S WEAPONS THAT WE HAVE TO TAKE
CARE OF. WE MUST PREVENT HIM FROM DEPLOYING
THOSE WEAPONS OR FROM USING THEM. AND FOR THAT
WE NEED MILITARY FORCE IMMEDIATELY AGAINST
WEAPONS FACILITIES. AND THEN WE HAVE A LONG
TERM PROBLEM, WHICH IS SADDAM HUSSEIN AND HIS
REGIME, BECAUSE HE WILL DO IT AGAIN, AS HE HAS
DONE IT AGAIN AND AGAIN IN THE PAST SIX YEARS.
HOST: AS YOU MAY KNOW, ON OCTOBER 31ST, THE U.S.
CONGRESS PASSED THE IRAQ LIBERATION ACT, WHICH
WAS AN EXPRESSION OF CONCERN ON THE PART OF
CONGRESS, AND ONE SHARED BY THE ADMINISTRATION,
THAT THE OPPOSITION TO SADDAM HUSSEIN INSIDE
IRAQ BE ABLE TO RECEIVE SOME KIND OF VIABLE
SUPPORT. DAVID WURMSER, HOW REALISTIC IS IT TO
EXPECT ANY DOMESTIC OPPOSITION TO MOUNT A
SERIOUS CHALLENGE TO SUCH A TOTALITARIAN REGIME?
WURMSER: IF WE'RE COUNTING ON THE IRAQIS TO TAKE MATTERS
INTO THEIR OWN HANDS WITHOUT ANY AMERICAN
BACKING OR ANY EXTERNAL BACKING FROM, SAY,
NORTHERN IRAQ, WHICH IS NOT UNDER SADDAM'S
CONTROL, THERE'S VERY LITTLE CHANCE, BECAUSE
ANYBODY WHO MEETS WITH ANYBODY TO CONSPIRE TO
GET RID OF SADDAM IS DEAD. PEOPLE HAVE TRIED TO
GET RID OF SADDAM. THE PEOPLE OF IRAQ HAVE
TRIED A NUMBER OF TIMES AND THEY'VE PAID WITH A
VERY LARGE PORTION OF THEIR POPULATION HAVING
BEEN KILLED. I THINK IT'S AROUND FOUR OR FIVE
PERCENT OF THEIR POPULATION HAS BEEN KILLED IN
UPRISINGS AGAINST SADDAM. IT'S A HUGE PRICE TO
PAY FOR TRYING TO GET RID OF HIM. THE
WILLINGNESS IS THERE. THE ABILITY IS NOT
INTERNALLY THERE IN IRAQ. SO THE REAL POINT IS
THAT IT WILL HAVE TO COME FROM THE OUTSIDE, THE
OUTSIDE NOT BEING FROM IRAQ AS A WHOLE, BUT FROM
THE AREA UNDER SADDAM'S CONTROL. IT WOULD HAVE
TO COME FROM NORTHERN IRAQ. IF THERE'S AN
ADDRESS TO WHICH PEOPLE CAN DEFECT, IF THERE'S
AN ADDRESS TO WHICH WHOLE UNITS CAN DEFECT, AND
THERE'S SOME PRESSURE FROM THE UNITED STATES.
FOR EXAMPLE, IF WE BOMBED THE WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION SITES, IF WE ALSO BOMBED SOME OF THE
REPUBLICAN GUARD UNITS ALONG THE LINE WITH
NORTHERN IRAQ AND LET THEM KNOW THAT IF YOU
REALLY DON'T LIKE THIS, YOU CAN GO NORTH AND YOU
CAN DEFECT, YOU MIGHT GET A REPEAT OF WHAT
HAPPENED IN 1991 WHEN THE IRAQI ARMY -- WE
THOUGHT THEY SURRENDERED. IN MANY WAYS, WHAT
HAPPENED WAS A MASS DEFECTION OF THE IRAQI ARMY.
SO THAT'S A VERY DISTINCT POSSIBILITY, IF WE PUT
THE PRESSURE ON HIS ARMED FORCES. BUT WE'RE NOT
WILLING TO TRY THAT RIGHT NOW.
HOST: BUT OF COURSE THERE WERE ATTEMPTS IN THE NORTH
TO FORM A VIABLE OPPOSITION AND THE KURDS BEGAN
FIGHTING EACH OTHER. WHAT IS THE POLITICAL
CHARACTER OF THE OPPOSITION TO SADDAM HUSSEIN?
AND ARE THEY ABLE TO COALESCE TO THE POINT WHERE
THEY CAN BECOME AN EFFECTIVE FORCE?
TIMMERMAN: I THINK THE BOTTOM LINE IS ALWAYS JUST WHAT
DAVID HAS SAID, WHICH IS WHEN THE UNITED STATES
IS THERE, AND WE ARE HELPING THEM, THE IRAQI
OPPOSITION GETS TOGETHER. THEY GOT TOGETHER
VERY WELL IN NORTHERN IRAQ. YOU HAD SUNNIS, YOU
HAD SHI'AS ALL WORKING TOGETHER FOR SEVERAL
YEARS. THEY HAD A SUCCESSFUL MILITARY CAMPAIGN
THAT BEGAN AGAINST THE IRAQI ARMY IN MARCH, 1995
FROM NORTHERN IRAQ. THREE ENTIRE IRAQI BRIGADES
DEFECTED TO THAT ADDRESS IN NORTHERN IRAQ. THEY
WENT TO FREEDOM. THIS COULD HAPPEN AGAIN. THE
PROBLEM AGAIN, AT THAT POINT WAS THAT THE U.S.
PULLED THE PLUG AND WE STOPPED IT. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS, IF THE U.S. IS THERE, IF WE ARE HELPING
THEM, THEY CAN GET THEIR ACT TOGETHER.
HOST: WHY DID THE U.S. PULL THE PLUG?
WURMSER: FIRST OF ALL, EVER SINCE 1991, THAT WAS THE
SECOND TIME THIS HAPPENED. BUT WHAT WE DID WAS,
WE WERE WAITING FOR A COUP IN BAGHDAD AND WE HAD
DEFECTORS TELLING US THAT THERE'S AN IMMINENT
COUP IN BAGHDAD. HOWEVER, SINCE IT'S A SUNNI
MINORITY GOVERNMENT IN IRAQ, THE PEOPLE WHO ARE
PLANNING THE COUP ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT THE
BREAKUP OF IRAQ AND ARE HUMILIATED BY IT, AS
WELL AS THE FACT THAT THEY'RE WORRIED ABOUT A
KURDISH SHI'ITE BLOODBATH AGAINST THE SUNNIS
AFTERWARDS. SO THEY TOLD US, LISTEN, YOU REALLY
CAN'T DO THIS COUP. WE WON'T DO THIS COUP
UNLESS YOU SHUT DOWN YOUR THREAT TO THE REGIME
FROM THE NORTH AND FROM THE SOUTH, THE SHI'ITES.
WE COMPLIED. THIS WAS THE SECOND TIME WE HAD
DONE THIS. SO WE SHUT DOWN THE OPERATION IN THE
NORTH. THE FIRST TIME WAS DURING THE MASSIVE
UPRISING THAT TOOK PLACE IN IRAQ RIGHT AFTER THE
GULF WAR, WHERE ABOUT FIFTEEN OR SIXTEEN OF
IRAQ'S EIGHTEEN PROVINCES WERE IN REVOLT. WE
LET THAT REVOLT BE CRUSHED BECAUSE WE WERE TOLD
BY NUMEROUS HIGH-RANKING OFFICERS THAT THERE
WOULD BE A COUP THE MOMENT IT WOULD BE CRUSHED.
AGAIN, THE SAME PATTERN. DEFECTORS CAME ACROSS
FROM SADDAM'S BAGHDAD. THEY WERE PLANTS, AND
LATER WERE FOUND OUT TO BE PLANTS. THE THIRD
TIME WAS THE SUMMER, WHEN SCOTT RITTER WANTED TO
INSPECT AND THE INSPECTIONS THAT WE . . .
HOST: A MEMBER OF THE U-N INSPECTION TEAM.
WURMSER: EXACTLY, THE UNSCOM [U-N SPECIAL COMMISSION]
TEAM. IN AUGUST, HE WAS GOING TO UNDERTAKE A
SERIES OF FAIRLY INTENSIVE AND VERY EFFECTIVE
INSPECTIONS. THEY INCLUDED SOME OF THE MEMBERS
OF THE SECURITY FORCES PROTECTING SADDAM, THE
VERY PEOPLE THAT WE WERE HOPING AGAIN, TO TAP
FOR A COUP. SO THAT'S ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS
WE BACKED OFF FROM THOSE INSPECTIONS AND TOLD
UNSCOM NOT TO DO THEM SO THAT WE COULD ENCOURAGE
THE COUP THAT ONCE AGAIN NEVER HAPPENED.
HOST: WHAT'S THE NEXT STEP THEN FOR THE UNITED STATES.
THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE HAS SAID THAT SADDAM'S
ACTIONS HAVE CHALLENGED THE CREDIBILITY OF THE
U-N SECRETARY GENERAL KOFI ANNAN WHO WAS IN
BAGHDAD LAST FEBRUARY AND WHO WORKED OUT THE
LATEST ARRANGEMENT FOR FREE AND OPEN
INSPECTIONS. AND NOW OF COURSE SADDAM HAS
TURNED AGAINST THAT. IS THE UNITED STATES
POISED, WITH THE U-N SECURITY COUNCIL, AND WITH
ITS ALLIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST TO TAKE EFFECTIVE
ACTION, DO YOU THINK?
MILHOLLIN: IT SEEMS TO ME THAT WE HAVE TO MOVE THIS DEBATE
AWAY FROM THE SECRETARY GENERAL BACK TO THE
SECURITY COUNCIL. KOFI ANNAN, IN EFFECT,
SABOTAGED OUR LAST EFFORT TO USE FORCE AND
SUBSTITUTED FOR IT A COMPLETELY INEFFECTIVE
INSPECTION ARRANGEMENT WHICH NOW HAS BEEN PROVED
TO BE UNWORKABLE. SO IT SEEMS TO ME THAT
WHATEVER CREDIBILITY OR EFFECT THAT HE MIGHT
HAVE HAD IS NOW OVER.
HOST: THE SECURITY COUNCIL HAS UNANIMOUSLY CONDEMNED
THIS AND CALLED FOR ITS REVERSAL. KEN
TIMMERMAN, ARE THE STATES IN THE GULF REGION
PREPARED TO ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT MILITARY ACTION
AGAINST IRAQ?
TIMMERMAN: EVERYTHING I'VE HEARD FROM GULF LEADERS WHEN I
WAS OUT THERE A FEW MONTHS AGO AND BEFORE -- IT
ALL COMES DOWN TO ONE MESSAGE. WE'RE WITH A
STRONG U.S. ACTION AGAINST SADDAM HUSSEIN, IF
THAT ACTION IS INTENDED TO OVERTHROW THE REGIME
AND SUBSTITUTE A FOLLOW-ON REGIME, BUT WE ARE
NOT GOING TO SUPPORT A PIN PRICK ATTACK. AND IF
THE U.S. DECIDES ON ANOTHER PIN PRICK ATTACK, WE
WILL NOT HAVE SUPPORT FROM SAUDI ARABIA. WE
WILL NOT HAVE SUPPORT FROM OTHER PERSIAN GULF
COUNTRIES. I THINK THAT THEY DO NOT WANT TO BE
ON THE RECEIVING END OF SADDAM'S WRATH AFTER A
PIN PRICK ATTACK THAT ALLOWS HIM TO CONTINUE IN
POWER. I THINK, REALLY, THE POINT NOW IS TO
MOVE BEYOND THE MILITARY ACTION AS PURE
RETALIATION. WE NOW NEED TO DETER SADDAM FROM
USING HIS WEAPONS, AND WE NEED TO SHOW HIM THAT
HIS DAYS ARE NUMBERED, AND THAT WE ARE GOING TO
BE SUPPORTING AN ALTERNATIVE.
HOST: DAVID WURMSER.
WURMSER: ULTIMATELY, WHAT HAPPENED WHEN SADDAM STARTED
FOOLING AROUND WITH UNSCOM ALREADY A YEAR AGO
WAS, SOON AFTERWARDS, HE CAME INTO WHAT WOULD BE
CALLED A MATERIAL BREACH OF THE CEASEFIRE
AGREEMENTS FROM 1991. THAT MEANS THAT THE WAR
THAT ENDED IN 1991 IS, IN EFFECT, BACK ON. WE
ARE IN A STATE OF WAR. WE'RE CHOOSING AT THIS
POINT NOT TO SHOOT. SADDAM IS JOCKEYING FOR A
STRATEGIC POSITION AND SO FORTH. I THINK AT
THIS POINT WE HAVE TO REALIZE WE'RE BACK AT WAR.
AND AS IN ANY WAR, YOU NEED TO SET DOWN A
STRATEGY AND THINK HOW YOU WILL USE FORCE TO
ACHIEVE THAT STRATEGY.
HOST: BUT IN A WAY, WOULDN'T YOU SAY WE ARE IN A
BETTER POSITION TODAY TO USE FORCE BECAUSE THE
LAST TIME, GARY MILHOLLIN, THAT THE UNITED
STATES WANTED TO MOVE FORWARD WITH MILITARY
FORCE CLEARLY IT WAS A HIGHLY UNPOPULAR
POTENTIAL MOVE. WHEREAS TODAY, BECAUSE OF, SOME
WOULD SAY, SADDAM'S BLUNDER IN DOING THIS, HE
HAS PROVOKED UNANIMITY AGAINST HIM.
MILHOLLIN: YES, I THINK WE ARE IN A STRONGER POSITION. BUT
IN ORDER FOR US TO USE FORCE EFFECTIVELY, THE
PRESIDENT HAS TO GO OUT TO THE COUNTRY AND
EXPLAIN WHY IT IS THAT AMERICA'S INTEREST IS
ENGAGED HERE. HE HAS TO EXPLAIN, IF WE DON'T
DEAL WITH SADDAM NOW WHEN HE DOESN'T HAVE
NUCLEAR WEAPONS, WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO DEAL
WITH HIM IN FIVE YEARS WHEN HE DOES HAVE NUCLEAR
WEAPONS. AND HE HAS TO EXPLAIN THAT TO THE REST
OF THE GULF, THE REST OF SADDAM'S NEIGHBORS.
THE DIFFICULTY LAST TIME WAS THAT THAT WAS NOT
EFFECTIVELY DONE. WHAT WE NEED NOW IS SOME
PRESIDENTIAL LEADERSHIP.
HOST: THOUGH THE PRESIDENT HAS SAID THAT AND DID SAY
THAT LAST FEBRUARY AND MADE THE CASE THAT HE HAD
TO BE STOPPED AND THAT THERE COULD BE NO
FUDGING.
WURMSER: EXCEPT THAT HE DID NOT FOLLOW THROUGH WITH THE
THREAT OF FORCE AND THAT WAS A REAL PROBLEM.
AND SADDAM TOOK THAT TO MEAN A LACK OF U.S.
RESOLVE. THE U.S. CONGRESS HAS DEMONSTRATED
SOME LEADERSHIP HERE BY PASSING THE IRAQ
LIBERATION ACT AND BY AUTHORIZING THE
ADMINISTRATION TO SPEND NINETY-SEVEN MILLION
DOLLARS TO TRAIN AND EQUIP AN IRAQI LIBERATION
ARMY. AND I THINK THAT CERTAINLY WOULD GO A
LONG WAY, SPENDING THAT MONEY AND TRAINING
EQUIPMENT, WOULD GO A LONG WAY TO DEMONSTRATING
U.S. RESOLVE.
HOST: I'M AFRAID THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS
WEEK. I'D LIKE TO THANK OUR GUESTS -- DAVID
WURMSER FROM AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE;
GARY MILHOLLIN FROM THE WISCONSIN PROJECT ON
NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL; AND KENNETH TIMMERMAN,
PUBLISHER OF THE IRAN BRIEF -- FOR JOINING ME
THIS WEEK TO DISCUSS IRAQ AND U.S. POLICY. THIS
IS ROBERT REILLY FOR ON THE LINE.
06-Nov-98 3:46 PM EST (2046 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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