Various Developments
Iraq News, SEPTEMBER 20, 1998
By Laurie MylroieThe central focus of Iraq News is the tension between the considerable, proscribed WMD capabilities that Iraq is holding on to and its increasing stridency that it has complied with UNSCR 687 and it is time to lift sanctions. If you wish to receive Iraq News by email, a service which includes full-text of news reports not archived here, send your request to Laurie Mylroie .
I. STEINBERG, THE US & WMD PROLIFERATION IN THE MIDEAST, MERIA, SEPT 15
II. SANDY BERGER, PRESS CONFERENCE, EXCERPT ON IRAQ, SEPT 18
III. IRAQ SATISFIED WITH ANNAN COMPROMISE PROPOSAL, AFP SEPT 19
IV. ALBRIGHT, TALABANI, BARZANI, REMARKS, SEPT 17
V. KURDISH LEADERS SIGN ACCORD, USIS, SEPT 17
This is the 46th day without weapons inspections in Iraq.
"Iraq News" would like to welcome the many new subscribers from the
IMRA list and to thank Dr. Aaron Lerner for his kind advertisement of
"Iraq News" on that list. [For more on IMRA, International Media Review
and Analysis, see http://join.virtual.co.il/cgi-win/imra.exe ].
"Iraq News" would also like to wish all the Jewish readers Shana
Tova, a happy New Year.
Gerald Steinberg, Professor of Political Science, Bar Ilan
University, published in MERIA, Sept 15, "US Responses to Proliferation
of Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East." Describing Iraq as
"the ultimate rogue state," Steinberg wrote of the past year's
confrontation with Baghdad, "From an Israeli perspective, the Americans
have failed to fully redeem pledges to destroy these [unconventional]
capabilities during the 1991 Gulf war, when the Bush Administration
pressed Israel to act with restraint. . . . Saddam still has his
weapons and nuclear development teams, waiting for the removal of
sanctions to resurface like mushrooms from below ground after a spring
rain. The United States knows this, but is a giant constrained by its
own weight and unable or unwilling to take decisive action."
US policy on Iraq remains the mystery wrapped in an enigma described
by former UN ambassador, Jeane Kirkpatrick; former Sec State, Lawrence
Eagleburger; and former CIA Director, James Woolsey; in hearings before
the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Middle East Subcommittee, Sept 9
[see "Iraq News" Sept 14] and former Under Sec Def, Paul Wolfowitz,
before the House Nat'l Security Committee, Sept 16 [see "Iraq News,"
Sept 17]. It is nearly impossible to understand the policy and to the
extent one can, it looks like the US has passed the buck to the UN.
Speaking to reporters, Sept 18, about Clinton's Sept 21 address to
the UNGA, NSC Adviser, Sandy Berger, was asked about Iraq/UNSCOM.
Referring to the-then 43 days without weapons inspections in Iraq,
Berger said, "Since Saddam Hussein has restricted the activity of the
inspectors, we have gone back to the Security Council, put the burden
there in the first instance. . . . They have voted unanimously to
suspend any review of sanctions until there is compliance. . . . If
Saddam Hussein takes the further step of expelling the UNSCOM inspectors
in the first instance, I believe the UN Security Council ought to act to
gain compliance. If they fail to do that, then we will obviously have
to face a number of decisions." Like what? The reporter's repeated,
follow-on questions failed to elicit an answer.
Kofi Annan has been negotiating with the Iraqis, through his
Baghdad-based envoy, Prakash Shah. Yesterday, AFP reported that the
Iraqis were satisfied with Annan's latest proposal, about which
virtually no public information is available. According to AFP's
sketchy report, Annan's proposal involves not only the "comprehensive
review" of Iraq's "compliance" with UNSCR 687, as provided for in UNSCR
1194, Sept 9, but also a proposal that the UNSC would accept less than
100% Iraqi compliance with UNSCR 687. How much less? A nuke or two?
Do the new readers, off the IMRA list, understand how bad it is,
why Ehud Barak warned "the danger is very immediate," as AFP Sept 17
reported? The Clinton administration has gone AWOL on UNSCOM and Iraq's
proscribed weapons, while the fate of peoples and nations has been put
in the hands of the UNSC, a Ghanian bureaucrat, and his Sri Lankan
envoy.
The two major Iraqi Kurdish leaders held talks in Washington over the
past week. On Thurs, Sept 17, in the presence of Madeleine Albright,
Jalal Talabani and Massoud Barzani announced that, under US auspices,
they had reached an agreement to resolve their differences. Albright
described the accord as a "new and hopeful chapter," while affirming
that "at the Security Council in New York we have reminded our
colleagues that the purpose of Council Resolutions, particularly
Resolution 688, is not restricted to Iraqi weapons programs, but extends
as well to the safety and protection of the Iraqi populations in both
the north and the south. . . . We [cannot] turn our backs on the Iraqi
people who have for too long been denied the freedom, security and
chance for prosperity they deserve. There can be no more Anfals, no
more campaigns to eradicate whole populations of innocent men, women,
and children." About the more general Saddam problem, Albright said,
"Iraq is threatening once again to end all cooperation with UN weapons
inspectors . . . . It is vital that the Security Council respond in a
firm and principled way . . . The Council cannot allow Iraq to gain by
starting another cycle of defiance and threats."
The Kurdish accord, as described by USIS, Sept 17, involves an
agreement on revenue sharing and power sharing, including elections to
be held next summer. The utility of the agreement, of course, depends
on its effective implementation. Iraq's Kurds have suffered a very
great deal and deserve no less. But in the view of "Iraq News," the
agreement will provide no enduring relief for them, unless it is part of
a longer-term strategy to address the Saddam threat to the population of
Iraq and the region.
Finally, as the NYT reported Sept 18, a problem has arisen regarding
the determination that Iraq filled SCUD warheads with VX. Following
UNSCOM's Jun 24 announcement that it had found VX on Iraqi warheads,
Baghdad demanded that other missile fragments be tested outside the US.
A generous concession was made to Iraq and that was done at labs in
France and Switzerland. But the preliminary findings found no VX.
DoD spokesman, Kenneth Bacon, at a briefing, Sept 17, provided one
explanation. First, he described the US tests. Forty-four missile
fragments, found at an Iraqi missile destruction site, were brought to
the US. Traces of decomposed VX were found on a quarter of the samples.
Those lab results were reviewed by an UNSCOM team, consisting of 13
people, including representatives from Switzerland, France, Russia, and
China. They unanimously concluded that the US findings were valid.
Bacon suggested that the difference between the US and the Swiss/French
tests might have arisen from the second set of missile fragments coming
from a different part of the missile destruction site. The NYT
suggested that Iraq might have gained access to the missile fragments
before the second set was taken out for analysis in Switzerland/France.
International experts are to meet next week on the matter.
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