More on Butler's Upbeat Remarks
Iraq News JUN 16, 1998
By Laurie MylroieThe central focus of Iraq News is the tension between the considerable, proscribed WMD capabilities that Iraq is holding on to and its increasing stridency that it has complied with UNSCR 687 and it is time to lift sanctions. If you wish to receive Iraq News by email, a service which includes full-text of news reports not archived here, send your request to Laurie Mylroie .
I. "IRAQI DISARMAMENT MOSTLY OVER BY AUGUST, BUTLER," REUTERS, JUN 15
II. "KUWAIT BRIEFED ON IRAQ ARMS PLAN," CNN, JUN 15
III. "FIRST EGYPTIAN MINISTER IN BAGHDAD SINCE 1991," REUTERS, JUN 15
Under Secretary of State Thomas Pickering visited Jordan and Kuwait
Jun 2 and 3. "Iraq News" has learned that on his trip he told both the
Kuwaitis and Jordanians that Saddam would remain in power for the
foreseeable future.
It is reported that Kuwait is very apprehensive about taking any
initiative to support activity against Saddam, while some officials in
Kuwait are openly saying that they should accept Saddam's participation
in a proposed summit being discussed among the Arabs and that Kuwait
should use the opportunity to reconcile with Saddam [Syria wants to
include Iraq; Saudi Arabia opposes it].
A US reader who visited Jordan in May, before Pickering's visit,
reported that the Jordanians even then were frustrated and angry at the
US over its Iraq policy. They felt very vulnerable, but didn't know
what to do about it.
Amb. Butler gave a press conference yesterday in Baghdad, before
leaving for Kuwait, where he will meet senior officials, including the
amir and crown prince. In Baghdad, according to Reuters, Butler
explained that he had agreed on a work schedule with the Iraqis that
could clear up outstanding issues in two months and lead to a clean bill
of health for Iraq by October. He is to return in slightly less than
two months. As Butler explained, "Mr. Aziz and I will take stock on the
ninth of August and it is my earnest hope that when we do that we will
be looking at a slate that's been pretty well ticked off. . . He and I
will sit down and assess what stage we have reached and what further
needs to be done, if anything, hopefully nothing, but what further needs
to be done in order to begin to prepare those . . . reports, hopefully
for our October report to the Security Council."
According to CNN, which characterized his remarks as a sign of
"flexibility," Butler said his experts were willing to accept that it is
impossible to verify every Iraqi claim. "'It may be that we won't get
100 percent verification where physical parts have been torn apart and
dispersed,' Butler said. He said searches for missile and chemical
weapons are nearing their end. Verification of Iraq's past germ warfare
program is cumbersome but the two sides have 'found a new way to deal
with it,' he said without elaborating."
That Butler even gave Iraq a checklist represented a major UNSCOM
concession. In the past, UNSCOM had avoided doing that, as it opens
avenues for more Iraqi deception. Still, one reader suggested that this
just means another crisis in Aug. But perhaps not. Perhaps, Butler is
tired of crises in which UNSCOM is left hung out to dry. Perhaps he is
fed up. On Jun 3, UNSCOM explained the very serious outstanding
problems in Iraq's WMD programs. What was the response?
The Wash Post, today, reported that at the UN, "Diplomats said they
did not know the reasons for Butler's optimistic assessment but expected
to learn more when he briefs the Security Council later his week . . .
The upbeat nature of his statements in Baghdad struck a potentially
sensitive nerve among US officials. Since Butler has accused Iraq of
frequent attempts to evade full disclosure of its weapons programs, US
officials said they are eager to hear why he now thinks Iraq may be able
to satisfy UN inspection demands within months."
The NYT on Sun, Jun 14, in an editorial endorsing Clinton
administration policy on Kosovo, wrote, "As seen with Iraq, diplomacy
backed with a show of force can move a leader with a history of failing
to respond to gentler forms of international persuasion." Were the NYT
editors really ignorant of the fact that since the Potemkin palace
inspections established by the Annan accord, UNSCOM has been under
tremendous political pressure, including from the UNSG, who has a
great interest in insurng that his own agreement is viewed as
successful?
Today, the NYT editors wrote rather differently, "It was startling to
hear Richard Butler . . . declare yesterday that a more cooperative
attitude in Baghdad may now make it possible to conclude the search for
concealed biological and chemical weapons and prohibited missiles in
just a few more months. . . Iraq must reveal what has happened to the
anthrax and botulinum toxin it is known to have imported before the
Persian Gulf war and may have since multiplied. It must also account
for the deadly VX nerve gas it is known to have manufactured and the
medium-range missiles it has tried to build secretly from imported
designs. . . . This documentation must be handed over, any illegal
weapons must be destroyed and a long-term monitoring system put in place
to detect future production of biological, chemical or nuclear weapons.
Only then should the Security Council consider a timetable for lifting
sanctions."
The Clinton administration has long sought to portray Saddam as being
bad enough to keep sanctions on, but not so bad it has to do much else.
The exception was the two Iraq crises of last fall and winter, when it
was prepared to carry out major air strikes. Then, the administration
explained the nature of the weapons that Saddam was holding on to and
the dangers they pose in order to generate support for military action.
But explaining that also generates the demand to overthrow Saddam and
that the administration is unwilling to do, or even try. Thus,
following the Feb 23 Annan accord, the administration reverted to
weaker, more abstract formulations of the problem--Iraq has not
complied, not provided information & etc. Hence yesterday's comment on
Butler's remarks by White House spokesman, Mike McCurry, "We appreciate
Chairman Butler's report. We think it will be important between now and
the next review of Iraqi sanctions in October [Ed: next sanctions review
is end Jun; next UNSCOM report is mid-Oct] to determine whether the
obligations that have been undertaken by the Iraqi government are
fulfilled, and whether there is a continued pattern of full compliance,
of full candor and openness and transparency when it comes to the
supervision of these programs."
But sanctions alone is not a policy, as has been said repeatedly,
most authoritatively by Congress, in its appropriation of $5 million for
a democratic opposition, which, as Richard Perle anticipated, the
administration would find ways to fritter away and otherwise not spend
usefully.
Egypt's Trade Minister arrived in Baghdad yesterday, marking the
first visit to Iraq by an Egyptian Minister since the Gulf war. A poor
country, Egypt could use the trade. But the visit is also consistent
with the notion that with Saddam coming back, none of his erstwhile Arab
foes wants to be the last to make up with him. Also, Egyptian tourism
is very important economically. Improved ties might help address a
problem suggested by a little-noticed statistic reported in the Apr 98,
"Strategic Assessment," published by Tel Aviv University's Jaffee Center
for Strategic Studies. In the six years from 1992 through 1997, 97
tourists were killed by terrorists in Egypt. Over 2/3 of those
tourists killed in Egypt were killed in the last four months of 1997,
roughly the period of the first of the two Iraq crises.
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