DATE=4/23/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-40145
TITLE=U-S POLICY IN THE PERSIAN GULF
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: U-S POLICY IN THE PERSIAN GULF WAS DEBATED AT A MEETING
OF THE MIDDLE EAST POLICY COUNCIL ON CAPITOL HILL. PARTICIPANTS
STRESSED THE GROWING DIVISION BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND ITS
ALLIES AND THE RELEVANCE OF THE NOW STALLED PEACE PROCESS. VOA'S
ED WARNER REPORTS.
TEXT: IS U-S POLICY IN THE PERSIAN GULF A SUCCESS OR A MESS?
BOTH POINTS WERE MADE IN A SPIRITED DISCUSSION ON CAPITOL HILL.
STRESSING SUCCESS, JOSEPH MARTY OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
INSISTED SADDAM HUSSEIN'S THREAT HAD BEEN CLEARLY REDUCED, TO THE
BENEFIT OF THE REGION:
// MARTY ACT //
SADDAM'S INSISTENCE ON MAINTAINING SOME WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION CAPABILITY HAS COST HIS COUNTRY OVER ONE
HUNDRED BILLION DOLLARS OVER THE LAST EIGHT YEARS IN
LOST OIL REVENUES. THOSE LOST REVENUES, ALONG WITH THE
ARMS EMBARGO, HAVE PREVENTED ANY SIGNIFICANT REBUILDING
OF HIS CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS' CAPABILITY. THIS HAS
OBVIOUSLY LIMITED THE MILITARY THREAT HE CAN POSE TO HIS
NEIGHBORS, INCLUDING KUWAIT AND SAUDI ARABIA. THAT IS A
REAL VICTORY.
// END ACT //
CHARLES FREEMAN, PRESIDENT OF THE MIDDLE EAST COUNCIL, WHICH
HOSTED THE DISCUSSION, AGREED THE GULF WAR WAS A SUCCESS BUT HAD
DOUBTS ABOUT THE AFTERMATH:
// FREEMAN ACT //
IN MANY RESPECTS, HOWEVER, THAT WAR APPEARS NEVER TO
HAVE ENDED. AND WHEREAS PRIOR TO THE WAR, IT WAS
POSSIBLE TO MAINTAIN PEACE AND STABILITY IN THE PERSIAN
GULF WITHOUT A SUBSTANTIAL PERMANENT AMERICAN PRESENCE
THERE, SUCH A PRESENCE IS APPARENTLY NOW NECESSARY TO
MAINTAIN THE PEACE. IS THIS A TENABLE LONG TERM
SITUATION?
// END ACT //
NOT VERY TENABLE, SAID SHIBLEY TELHAMI, ANWAR SADAT PROFESSOR AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND. HE THOUGHT THE NEXT TIME SADDAM
HUSSEIN POSES SOME CHALLENGE, THE UNITED STATES MAY WELL LAUNCH A
MILITARY STRIKE. THIS WOULD FURTHER ALIENATE EUROPEAN AND ARAB
COUNTRIES THAT THINK SADDAM HAS MADE SIGNIFICANT COMPROMISES.
MR TELHAMI ADDED ARAB OPINION BLAMES NOT SADDAM BUT THE UNITED
STATES FOR IRAQI SUFFERING UNDER ECONOMIC SANCTIONS.
ARAB OPINION ALSO HOLDS THE UNITED STATES RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
BREAKDOWN IN THE PEACE PROCESS, SAID DOV ZAKHEIM, CORPORATE VICE
PRESIDENT OF SYSTEM PLANNING CORPORATION, A HIGH TECHNOLOGY FIRM:
// ZAKHEIM ACT //
THERE IS ALMOST A UNANIMOUS PERCEPTION IN THE GULF,
RIGHTLY OR WRONGLY, THAT INDEED THE PEACE PROCESS, OR
THE LACK THEREOF, IS UNDERMINING ARAB SUPPORT FOR
AMERICAN POLICY IN THE GULF. YOU CAN SAY THAT
OBJECTIVELY THAT IS NOT THE CASE, BUT IF EVERYBODY
BELIEVES IT, YOU HAVE GOT A PROBLEM.
// END ACT //
MR. ZAKHEIM SAID STABILITY IN THE GULF WILL BE HELPED BY
IMPROVING RELATIONS WITH IRAN. CHARLES FREEMAN SUGGESTED DIRECT
TALKS WITH IRAQ AS WELL, NOTING ALL GULF PARTICIPANTS ARE NEEDED
TO ESTABLISH REGIONAL SECURITY. (SIGNED)
NEB/EW/KL
23-Apr-98 5:12 PM EDT (2112 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
|
Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list
|
|
|
