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Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

THE IRAQI OIL-FOR-FOOD PROGRAM

TABLE SHOWING ANTICIPATED RESULTS OF THE OIL-FOR-FOOD PROGRAM


April 1998

  • All figures show total for periods of 180 days

  • All dollar figures are in US dollars

  • Information valid as of 29 April 1998
It is important to note that, of the two versions of the "revised program" depicted in this table, in all likelihood, the version that will be put into effect at the end of Phase III on 3 June 1998, will be the version depicted in the "C" column of the table. Sometime before 3 June, the Security Council will settle on a figure of 4 billion dollars for box 1C or a figure fairly close to it.

Description Current Program: Resolution 986, continues until 3 June 1998 Revised Program (Resolution 986 with amendments) due to commence 4 June 1998
Approved Version Resolution 1153 Version Subsequently Proposed by Secretary-General1
1. Dollar value of oil permitted to be sold by Iraq. Box 1A

2 billion dollars2

 Box 1B

5.256 billion dollars3

 Box 1C

4 billion dollars4
2. Portion of proceeds available to buy food, medicine and other humanitarian commodities for Iraq. Box 2A

1.32 billion dollars5

 Box 2B

3.43 billion dollars6

 Box 2C

2.61 billion dollars7
3. Portion of the above item allocated for the purchase of food. Box 3A

805 million dollars8

 Box 3B

1.33 billion dollars9

 Box 3C

1.01 billion dollars10
4. Portion of proceeds reserved for payment of compensation to those who suffered damage as a result of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. Box 4A

600 million dollars11

 Box 4B

1.57 billion dollars12

 Box 4C

1.2 billion dollars13
5. Portion of proceeds reserved for payment of UNSCOM's inspection expenses and for various other purposes.14 Box 5A

80 million dollars15

 Box 5B

256 million dollars16

 Box 5C

190 million dollars17
6. Volume of oil permitted to be exported by Iraq based on the current price of Iraqi crude oil, $10.50.18 Box 6A

190 million barrels19

 Box 6B

501 million barrels20

 Box 6C

381 million barrels21

Figures for Comparison
1. Average dollar value of food imported by Iraq over a period of 180 days prior to the imposition of sanctions. Box 7
1 billion dollars22
2. Volume of oil exported by Iraq prior to the imposition of sanctions (180 days in 1989). Box 8
407 million barrels23
3. Volume of oil capable of being exported over a period of 180 days at the current level of exports. Box 9
275 million barrels, having a value of 2.9 billion dollars24

1. Secretary-General's report to the Security Council dated 15 April 1998 (UN document S/1998/330) para. 2. The situation giving rise to this document is explained in the text.

2. UN Security Council Resolution 986, para. 1.

3. UN Security Council Resolution 1153, para. 2.

4. Secretary-General's report to the Security Council dated 15 April 1998 (UN document S/1998/330) p. 2. The situation giving rise to this document is explained in the text.

5. The figure 1.32 billion is mentioned in a document prepared by the Government of Iraq entitled Distribution Plan for Phase IIIC Amended as of 13 March 1998. The document is available at:

http://www.un.org/Depts/olp/dplan/dp-main.htm
This plan has not been specifically approved or accepted by the UN in any official document, but it has been accepted as a matter of practice and is currently in effect; an earlier version of the plan was approved by the Secretary-General on 5 January 199 8; notice of this approval was given in a letter of that date from the Secretary-General to the Security Council. (Conversation with UN official, 23 April 1998.) The figure 1.32 billion appears in paragraph 3 of the executive summary of this document. It will be noted that this figure represents approximately 65% of the figure shown in Box 1A.

6. This figure was generated from the Secretary-General's report to the Security Council dated 1 February 1998 (S/1998/90); this report was submitted in relation to Council's consideration of Resolution 1153; the following statement appears in paragraph 6 6: Should Council approve this recommendation, the level of additional resources over and above the 1.32 billion dollars provided under the current arrangements required to meet the priority, interlinked proposals listed in Annex 2 would amount to $2,115, 570,590. ... The two figures in this statement were added together producing the figure 3.43 billion.

7. This figure does not appear in the document referred to in footnotes 1 and 4, the Secretary-General's report of 15 April 1998, since the report contains no recommendations on this matter. The figure represents an estimate based on the assumption that the percentage of expenditures for humanitarian purposes as compared to the total allowance (4 billion dollars) will be the same as the comparable percentage under Resolution 1153. Thus, the factor 65.2% was applied to 4 billion in order to produce the f igure 2.61 billion. The true figure will be known when Iraq and the UN have agreed on a distribution plan for the next phase.

8. Distribution Plan for Phase III, para. 3 and table 1. For an explanation of this document, see footnote 3

9. This figure was generated from the Secretary-General's report to the Security Council dated 1 February 1998 (S/1998/90); this report was submitted in relation to Council's consideration of Resolution 11 53; item 1 of Annex 2 contains the figure $527,283,870. This figure was added to the comparable figure under the current program, 805 million dollars which appears in Box 3A, so as to produce the total sum of 1.33 billion dollars.

10. This figure does not appear in the document referred to in footnotes 1 and 4, the Secretary-General's report of 15 April 1998, since the report contains no recommendations on this matter. The figure represents an estimate based on the assumption that the percentage of expenditures for food as compared to the total allowance (4 billion dollars) will be the same as the comparable percentage under Resolution 1153. Thus, the factor 25.3% was applied to 4 billion in order to produce the figure 1.01 billi on. The true figure will be known when Iraq and the UN have agreed on a distribution plan for the next phase.

11. This figure was generated by taking 30% of the figure shown in Box 1A. This is the percentage stipulated for this type of compensation in paragraph 8(c ) of Resolution 986. Thus, the factor 30% was applied to the figure 2 billion to produce the figur e 600 million.

12. This figure was generated by taking 30% of the figure shown in Box 1B. This is the percentage stipulated for this type of compensation in paragraph 8(c ) of Resolution 986. Thus, the factor 30% was applied to the figure 5.256 billion to produce the f igure 1.57 billion.

13. This figure was generated by taking 30% of the figure shown in Box 1C. This is the percentage stipulated for this type of compensation in paragraph 8(c) of Resolution 986. Thus, the factor 30% was applied to the figure 4 billion to produce the figur e 1.2 billion.

14. The purposes involved in this category are described in paragraphs 8(d), (e), (f) and (g) of Resolution 986.

15. This figure was generated by totalling the figures shown in Boxes 2A and 4A and deducting this total from the figure shown in Box 1A.

16. This figure was generated by totalling the figures shown in Boxes 2B and 4B and deducting this total from the figure shown in Box 1B.

17. This figure was generated by totalling the figures shown in Boxes 2C and 4C and deducting this total from the figure shown in Box 1C.

18. This figure varies from day to day. The figure $10.50 is taken from the Secretary-General's letter to the Security Council dated 15 April 1998 (UN document No. S/1998/330) and is valid as of that date. There has been little movement in the price of oi l since that date. The price of Iraqi oil differs significantly from other figures commonly quoted in financial circles for the price of oil, such as the so-called WTI price which was $15.46 on 15 April 1998 (Bloomberg Commodities News). The difference is due to the fact that the price of crude oil depends on its grade which varies widely from country to country.

19. This figure was generated by dividing the figure shown in Box 1A by $10.50. The figure given in this box is variable since it is dependant on the price of Iraqi oil; see footnote 18.

20. This figure was generated by dividing the figure shown in Box 1B by $10.50. The figure given in this box is variable since it is dependant on the price of Iraqi oil; see footnote 18.

21. This figure was generated by dividing the figure in Box 1C by $10.50. The figure given in this box is variable since it is dependent on the price of Iraqi oil; see footnote 18.

22. These are estimated values supplied by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and the World Food Program (WFP) as quoted by the Secretary-General in his report to the Security Council dated 1 February 1998 (S/1998/90) paragraph 32. Paragraph 32 contains the following statement: During this time, the estimated cost of food imports averaged around 2 billion dollars per year, though in poor production years the import bill could rise to 3 billion dollars.

23. Bloomberg Commodities News: OPEC Information, Crude Oil Exports by OPEC Member Countries, 1985-90. Iraq 1989 - 2.26 million barrels per day (180 days = 407 million barrels)

24. UN document No. S/1998/330, paragraph 28. These figures exceed those allowable under the current program. The difference is due to an additional allowance authorized as a result of a shortfall in previous phases: Resolution 1158.



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