DATE= FEBRUARY 28, 1998
TYPE=ON THE LINE
NUMBER=1-00614 SHORT # 1
TITLE= WILL IRAQ COMPLY?
EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY - 619-0037
CONTENT= INSERTS AVAILABLE FROM AUDIO SERVICES
THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE
ANNCR: ON THE LINE -- A DISCUSSION OF UNITED STATES
POLICIES AND CONTEMPORARY ISSUES. THIS WEEK,
"WILL IRAQ COMPLY?" HERE IS YOUR HOST,
--------.
HOST: HELLO AND WELCOME TO ON THE LINE. THE CRISIS
WITH IRAQ SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN DEFUSED. DURING
THE VISIT OF UNITED NATIONS SECRETARY GENERAL
KOFI ANNAN TO BAGHDAD, SADDAM HUSSEIN SIGNED AN
AGREEMENT THAT WOULD REPORTEDLY ALLOW UNFETTERED
ACCESS TO SUSPECTED WEAPONS SITES. MR. ANNAN
SAID THAT SADDAM HUSSEIN'S PROMISE WILL BE
TESTED "AS SOON AS POSSIBLE." PRESIDENT BILL
CLINTON WELCOMED THE COMMITMENT FROM IRAQ, BUT
SAID THAT WHAT REALLY MATTER IS IRAQ'S
COMPLIANCE. U.S. MILITARY FORCES WILL REMAIN IN
THE PERSIAN GULF REGION. MR. CLINTON SAID THAT
IF THE ACCORD COLLAPSES, THE UNITED STATES IS
POISED TO STRIKE IRAQ "AT A TIME, PLACE AND
MANNER OF OUR CHOOSING."
HOST: ROB SATLOFF IS EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE
WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY. HE
SAYS THAT SADDAM HUSSEIN HAS GAINED FROM THE
NEW AGREEMENT.
SATLOFF: I THINK IT MOVES SADDAM FROM BEING THE OBJECT OF
THE UNITED NATIONS INSPECTIONS AND THE OBJECT OF
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY BACK INTO BEING A
PARTICIPANT OR A NEGOTIATOR OR, GOD FORBID, EVEN
A PARTNER WITH THE UNITED NATIONS. NOW, I
REALIZE THAT THIS IS THE BEST THAT WE COULD GET
UNDER THE CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES, BUT I THINK
THAT'S LARGELY BECAUSE OUR MILITARY STRATEGY
WASN'T PREPARED AND WASN'T HEADED IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION. SO I HOPE WE TAKE THE OPPORTUNITY OF
THE COMING PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT ALMOST
INEVITABLE CRISIS FOR US TO GET OUR DUCKS IN
ORDER AND TO PUT IN PLACE A MORE SOUND MILITARY
STRATEGY.
HOST: GARY MILHOLLIN IS DIRECTOR OF THE WISCONSIN
PROJECT ON NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL. HE SAYS THAT
THE AGREEMENT WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE U-N
INSPECTORS TO DO THEIR JOB.
MILHOLLIN: I THINK THE NEW AGREEMENT IS GOING TO MAKE IT
MUCH HARDER. IT SEEMS TO ME THAT WHAT SADDAM IS
TRYING TO DO IS CREATE SANCTUARIES. HE'S
IDENTIFIED THESE EIGHT PRESIDENTIAL SITES AND
HE'S TRIED TO SET UP AN ALTERNATIVE INSPECTION
REGIME, WHICH WILL BE POSSIBLY LESS RIGOROUS
THAN THE U-N REGIME, TO GO INTO THEM. AND I
THINK WHAT HE'S HOPING IS THAT HE CAN NEGOTIATE
HIS WAY TO A POINT WHERE HE CAN BE CONFIDENT
THAT HE CAN DO WHAT HE WANTS IN THOSE EIGHT
SITES AND THAT HE WON'T BE DISCOVERED. IF
THAT'S TRUE, THEN THAT WILL GIVE HIM AN
OPPORTUNITY TO RECONSTITUTE ALL OF HIS PROGRAMS,
HIS NUCLEAR PROGRAM, HIS MISSILE PROGRAM AND HIS
CHEMICAL, BIOLOGICAL PROGRAM.
HOST: THOMAS KEANEY IS PROFESSOR OF MILITARY STRATEGY
AT THE NATIONAL WAR COLLEGE. HE SAYS THAT THE
U.S. MILITARY WILL BE STRETCHED THIN IF IT HAS
TO PROLONG ITS STAY IN THE PERSIAN GULF REGION.
KEANEY: THE UNITED STATES CAN CHOOSE TO RETAIN THE
FORCES IN THE REGION, WHICH WE'LL ATTEMPT TO DO
AT LEAST TO ENFORCE THIS AGREEMENT. BUT THE
MILITARY SIDE OF THAT IS: HOW LONG CAN THEY KEEP
THAT CONCENTRATION OF FORCES IN THE REGION?
BECAUSE, WHILE THOSE FORCES ARE THERE, THERE ARE
OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD THAT ARE GOING WITHOUT
THOSE FORCES. IN OTHER WORDS, THAT'S AN UNUSUAL
CONCENTRATION IN THE GULF. IT COSTS MONEY. IT
CAN ONLY LAST FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME AND THEN IT WOULD HAVE TO BE RECONSTITUTED
ALL OVER AGAIN.
HOST: ARMS CONTROL SPECIALIST GARY MILHOLLIN SAYS THAT
IF SADDAM BREAKS THE NEW ACCORD, THE U.S. WOULD
BE IN A POSITION TO TAKE HARSHER ACTION AGAINST
IRAQ. FOR ON THE LINE, THIS IS -------.
ANNCR: YOU'VE BEEN LISTENING TO "ON THE LINE" -- A
DISCUSSION OF UNITED STATES POLICIES AND
CONTEMPORARY ISSUES. THIS IS -------.
27-Feb-98 2:29 PM EST (1929 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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