DATE=2/27/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-39109
TITLE=IRAQI OPPOSITION/U-S
BYLINE=NEAL LAVON
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: A LETTER SIGNED BY MEMBERS OF A BIPARTISAN COMMITEE
SEEKING THE OVERTHROW OF IRAQI LEADER SADDAM HUSSEIN CALLS FOR,
AMONG OTHER THINGS, INCREASING AID TO IRAQI OPPOSITION GROUPS.
BUT AS V-O-A'S NEAL LAVON REPORTS FROM WASHINGTON, THE IDEA DOES
NOT HAVE UNIVERSAL SUPPORT AMONG U-S MIDDLE EAST ANALYSTS.
TEXT: THE BIPARTISAN COMMITTEE FOR PEACE AND SECURITY IN THE
GULF IS URGING THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION TO GO BEYOND A POLICY
OF CONTAINMENT IN IRAQ TO ONE THAT SEEKS THE OVERTHROW OF SADDAM
HUSSEIN. THE COMMITTEE INCLUDES FORMER DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSMAN AND
FOREIGN AFFAIRS EXPERT STEPHEN SOLARZ AS WELL AS FORMER
REPUBLICAN NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER RICHARD ALLEN.
THE LETTER SAYS A COMPREHENSIVE POLITICAL AND MILITARY STRATEGY
FOR BRINGING DOWN THE IRAQI LEADER IS REQUIRED BY WHAT THE
COMMITTEE CALLS THE NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS OF THE UNITED
STATES. IT CALLS UPON THE ADMINISTRATION TO UNDERTAKE SEVERAL
INITIATIVES INCLUDING CHARGING SADDAM HUSSEIN AS A WAR CRIMINAL,
CHALLENGING THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT'S RIGHT TO HOLD A SEAT AT THE
UNITED NATIONS AND ESTABLISHING A BROADCAST FACILITY FOR THE
IRAQI PEOPLE TO BE KNOWN AS RADIO FREE IRAQ.
BUT THE MAJOR THRUST OF THE COMMITTEE IS TO SUPPORT IRAQI
OPPOSITION GROUPS. THERE ARE SEVERAL ANTI-SADDAM GROUPS BASED IN
LONDON AND THE MIDDLE EAST. AMONG THEM ARE THE IRAQI NATIONAL
CONGRESS, AN UMBRELLA GROUP THAT INCLUDES IRAQ'S SUNNI, SHIITE
AND KURDISH COMMUNITIES AND THE IRAQI NATIONAL ACCORD, WITH
HEADQUARTERS IN AMMAN, JORDAN.
THESE TWO GROUPS WERE LINKED THIS MONTH BY THE LOS ANGELES TIMES
TO AN UNSUCCESSFUL COUP ATTEMPT AND AN ASSASSINATION PLOT AGAINST
SADDAM HUSSEIN. THE GROUPS, SAYS THE TIMES, WERE AIDED BY THE U-S
INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY.
IN ITS LETTER, THE COMMITTEE ASKS WASHINGTON TO SUPPORT A
PROVISIONAL GOVERNMENT BASED ON THE PRINCIPLES OF THE IRAQI
NATIONAL CONGRESS. ROBERT LIEBER, OF GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY AND A
SUPPORTER OF THE COMMITTEE, SAYS THE U-S CAN DO MORE, INCLUDING:
/// LIEBER ACT ///
LIFTING THE ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AGAINST THOSE REGIONS
IN THE SOUTH THAT HAVE BEEN LIBERATED. FOR EXAMPLE,
THE KURDISH AREAS IN THE NORTH, AND ANY AREAS IN
THE SOUTH THAT THE SHIITES MIGHT LIBERATE; MAKING
AVAILABLE TO THE OPPOSITION ONE-POINT-SIX BILLION
DOLLARS IN FROZEN IRAQI ASSETS, IT WOULD SEND AN
IMPORTANT SIGNAL TO THE IRAQI PEOPLE.
/// END ACT ///
OTHER MIDDLE EAST ANALYSTS IN THE UNITED STATES ARE LESS
OPTIMISTIC THAT SUPPORTING IRAQI OPPOSITION GROUPS WILL HELP
TOPPLE SADDAM HUSSEIN. FORMER UNDER SECRETARY OF STATE JOSEPH
SISCO THINKS THE ANTI-SADDAM OPPOSITION IS IN NO POSITION TO POSE
A SERIOUS THREAT TO THE IRAQI LEADER.
/// SISCO ACT ///
THE OPPOSITION GROUPS ARE DIVIDED. SECONDLY, MOST
OF THEM ARE SITTING IN LONDON DISCUSSING THESE
MATTERS. THAT'S NOT THE WAY YOU REALLY DEVELOP
SERIOUS OPPOSITION. YOU'VE GOT TO DEVELOP ASSETS
WITHIN THE COUNTRY. THEREFORE, I'M VERY, VERY
DUBIOUS THAT THESE GROUPS ON THE OUTSIDE CAN
MOUNT AN EFFECTIVE OPPOSITION TO SADDAM HUSSEIN.
/// END ACT ///
THE DISCUSSION OF CONTAINING IRAQ AS OPPOSED TO ENGAGING IN A AN
ACTIVE CAMPAIGN TO TOPPLE SADDAM HUSSEIN IS LIKELY TO HEAT UP
WHEN THE FUTURE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND BAGHDAD IS
DEBATED ON CAPITOL HILL AND ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. (SIGNED)
NEB/PT
27-Feb-98 5:31 PM EST (2231 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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