25 February 1998
SADDAM "BACKS DOWN" IN CONFRONTATION OVER UN WEAPONS INSPECTIONS
(Gulf specialist says Saddam will continue to pose threat) (770) By Peter Sawchyn USIA Staff Writer Washington -- In the latest confrontation with the United Nations over weapons inspections, Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein has for all practical purposes "backed down" by agreeing to comply with U.N. resolutions that require free and full access to all suspected weapons sites, according to Phebe Marr, an American Middle East and Persian Gulf specialist. The U.S. policy of holding out the threat of a major military strike has succeeded in containing Saddam Hussein, and left in place all U.N. sanctions, Marr said. While the cost of this policy in military and political terms may be high, the long-term costs would be much higher if the United States had allowed Saddam to continue flaunting the will of the international community, she added. Speaking in separate sessions with journalists and policy researchers in Brussels and Lisbon February 25, Marr also discussed the differences in the U.S. and European policies towards Iraq, the latest agreement between the U.N. and Iraq negotiated by U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan, the plight of the Iraqi people, and Saddam Hussein's future. Marr, a former senior fellow with the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University in Washington, has written widely on Middle East and Gulf issues, and was an adviser to senior White House and Pentagon officials during the 1990-1991 Gulf crisis. In her opening statement, Marr noted that the United States and European nations differ more on the means of dealing with Iraq rather than the goal, which is containing Saddam Hussein and diminishing his weapons of mass destruction and the threat he poses to neighboring countries. Marr said it is no secret that U.S. officials do not trust Saddam. Iraq and the Iraqi people will continue to suffer as long as he remains in power. For that reason, she said, U.N. trade and economic sanctions must remain in place, despite the hardships they have imposed on ordinary Iraqis. Any lifting of sanctions before Saddam demonstrates that he will fully abide by U.N. Security Council resolutions is a "formula for non-compliance," Marr stated. Moreover, gradually unfreezing Iraqi assets and allowing Saddam more access to oil revenues, as some have urged, would only allow him to develop weapons of mass destruction again and to rebuild his crumbling regime. A better strategy, she said, is to expand the U.N. oil for food programs further so that Iraq, under U.N. auspices, can begin rebuilding its infrastructure, and allocating funds for exchange programs and travel outside the country. While the latest crisis has abated, Marr said, the Iraqi leader will continue to pose a problem to his neighbors and the world. Given his past actions, it's likely Saddam will again challenge U.N. resolutions and try to rebuild his military capacity, she said. For that reason, Marr said, the United States must be prepared to continue its efforts to contain Saddam for the long-term until he demonstrates full compliance with U.N. resolutions, including the memorandum of agreement Secretary General Kofi Annan secured in Baghdad over the weekend. The next step is for U.S. officials to "nail down and clarify" specific details of how the agreement will be implemented. Until then, Marr said, U.S. troops and ships should remain in the Gulf as a reminder to Saddam that military force remains a viable option should he again refuse to grant U.N. arms inspectors free and unfettered access to suspected weapons sites. Regarding Saddam's future, the Gulf specialist said it's hard to say how much longer he will remain in power. However, it is evident that his base of support in Iraq continues to erode. In fact, Marr said most of Saddam's support is from outside Iraq, due in no small measure to his reliance on fear, terrorism and repression to retain control. "Saddam is not a strong and stable leader," Marr said. "His regime is not as strong as it may seem. He could remain in power for another 10 years. But it's clear that he is presiding over a declining country, and the longer he stays in power the more Iraqi society will disintegrate. He is not a leader who can rehabilitate Iraq." For that reason, the United States needs to remain prepared to bear the costs of containing Saddam, and if necessary, act unilaterally to reduce whatever future threats the Iraqi leader may pose, she said. (For more information on this subject, contact our special Iraq website at: http://www.usia.gov/iraq)
|
NEWSLETTER
|
| Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list |
|
|
|
