DATE=2/24/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-39065
TITLE=BRITAIN / IRAQ
BYLINE=ANDRE DE NESNERA
DATELINE=LONDON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: UNITED NATIONS SECRETARY-GENERAL KOFI ANNAN HAS BROKERED
A DEAL WITH IRAQ, APPARENTLY ALLOWING U-N INSPECTORS -- KNOWN AS
"UNSCOM" (UNITED NATIONS SPECIAL COMMISSION) -- FREE ACCESS TO
SUSPECTED BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL WEAPONS SITES (EDS: UPDATE INFO
AFTER DETAILS ANNOUNCED). BUT AS V-O-A CORRESPONDENT ANDRE DE
NESNERA REPORTS FROM LONDON, ONE FORMER U-N WEAPONS INSPECTOR IS
VERY LEERY ABOUT IRAQI COMPLIANCE WITH ANY AGREEMENT.
TEXT: THE UNITED STATES AND BRITAIN HAVE BEEN PREPARING FOR
MILITARY AIR STRIKES AGAINST IRAQ, IF DIPLOMATIC ATTEMPTS FAILED
TO RESOLVE THE CRISIS OVER WEAPONS INSPECTORS. BUT IT APPEARS
THAT U-N SECRETARY-GENERAL KOFI ANNAN HAS BROKERED A DEAL
ALLOWING INSPECTORS TO DO THEIR WORK UNHINDERED.
HOWEVER ONE FORMER WEAPONS INSPECTOR BELIEVES IRAQ WILL CONTINUE
TO DO EVERYTHING IN ITS POWER TO STOP U-N OFFICIALS FROM GETTING
THE FULL PICTURE ON ITS CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS PROGRAM.
TIM TREVAN WAS A U-N INSPECTOR IN IRAQ WORKING UNDER THE FORMER
SENIOR WEAPONS OFFICIAL, ROLF EKEUS. NOW AT LONDON'S
"INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES," MR. TREVAN
REMEMBERS THE FRUSTRATIONS INVOLVED IN DEALING WITH IRAQI
OFFICIALS.
// TREVAN ACT //
IRAQ HAS NEVER COMPLIED OR COOPERATED WITH UNSCOM. THE
MOST IT HAS EVER ALLOWED TO HAPPEN IS FOR THE INSPECTORS
TO ROAM AROUND THE COUNTRY FREELY UNTIL THEY COME ACROSS
SOMETHING. BUT DO NOT FORGET -- AND I FIND IT RATHER
ANNOYING WHEN PEOPLE TALK ABOUT IRAQ COMING BACK INTO
COMPLIANCE -- IRAQ HAS NEVER, HONESTLY AND FULLY,
DECLARED ITS WEAPONS HOLDINGS AS IT WAS REQUIRED TO
UNDER THE CEASEFIRE RESOLUTIONS. IT HAS NEVER BEEN IN
COMPLIANCE. THAT IS WHY THE SANCTIONS ARE STILL IN
PLACE.
// END ACT //
THE FORMER WEAPONS INSPECTOR SAYS ONCE IRAQ COMPLIES WITH U-N
RESOLUTIONS, ECONOMIC SANCTIONS WILL BE LIFTED. BUT HE BELIEVES
THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN SOON.
/// SECOND TREVAN ACT /// //OPT//
I WOULD STILL SUSPECT THAT WHATEVER THIS DEAL SAYS, IRAQ
IS NOT GOING TO COME INTO COMPLIANCE. IRAQ IS NOT
GOING TO DECLARE ITS WEAPONS HOLDINGS AND IT IS GOING TO
GO BACK TO THE GAME OF "CAT AND MOUSE." AND I STRONGLY
SUSPECT THAT REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAS BEEN SIGNED ON THIS
PIECE OF PAPER, AS SOON AS THE INSPECTORS GET CLOSE TO
FINDING SOMETHING, THEY WILL BE BLOCKED YET AGAIN.
// END ACT //
MR. TREVAN SAYS IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE UNITED NATIONS TO REASSESS
ITS WHOLE IRAQI WEAPONS INSPECTION SCHEME AND ASK WHETHER IT IS
-- IN HIS WORDS -- FATALLY FLAWED.
// THIRD TREVAN ACT //
THE ASSUMPTION WAS NOT UNREASONABLE IN DRAWING UP THE
CEASEFIRE RESOLUTION THAT THE COSTS OF NOT COMPLYING
-- THE LOST 25 MILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF OIL REVENUES
EACH DAY -- WOULD MAKE SADDAM SEE SENSE AND COMPLY. AND
THE THREAT OF RESUMED MILITARY ACTION IF HE DID NOT
COMPLY, WOULD ALSO MAKE HIM COMPLY. THE FACT OF THE
MATTER IS, IN SEVEN YEARS, HE HAS NOT COMPLIED. WHAT
IS THERE TO MAKE US BELIEVE THAT NOW HE WILL COMPLY?
NOTHING.
// END ACT //
//OPT// MR. TREVAN ALSO BELIEVES THE UNITED NATIONS MUST FIND
WAYS TO REMOVE IRAQI LEADER SADDAM HUSSEIN FROM POWER, SINCE HIS
GOVERNMENT IS SEEN AS NOT ONLY A THREAT TO HIS PEOPLE, BUT TO
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY AS A WHOLE.
// FOURTH TREVAN ACT //
IF THE THREAT TO INTERNATIONAL SECURITY IS THE REGIME,
THEN THE SECURITY COUNCIL VERY CLEARLY STATES, IN
RELATION TO THREATS TO INTERNATIONAL PEACE AND SECURITY,
THAT THE COUNCIL IS ABLE TO TAKE "WHATEVER ACTION IS
REQUIRED" TO REMOVE THE THREAT TO INTERNATIONAL PEACE
AND SECURITY. I WOULD READ THAT TO MEAN THAT YOU CAN
REMOVE A REGIME, IF THAT REGIME IS THE ROOT CAUSE OF THE
THREAT.
// END ACT // //END OPT//
TIM TREVAN FROM LONDON'S "INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC
STUDIES" SAYS IF THERE IS A CLEAR POLICY TO REMOVE SADDAM HUSSEIN
AND THAT POLICY IS BACKED BY THE MILITARY MIGHT OF THE UNITED
STATES AND ITS ALLIES, THEN MR. TREVAN BELIEVES SUCH A STRATEGY
WOULD RECEIVE THE BACKING OF MANY COUNTRIES -- INCLUDING THOSE
ARAB STATES CURRENTLY HESITANT ABOUT TAKING ANY MILITARY ACTION
AGAINST IRAQ. (SIGNED)
NEB/ADEN/PCF
24-Feb-98 10:15 AM EST (1515 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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