DATE=2/19/98
TYPE=WORLDWIDE ENGLISH FEATURE
NUMBER=7-18014
TITLE=CONFLICT RESOLUTION: IRAQ -- THE DIPLOMATIC OPTION
BYLINE=JUDITH LATHAM
TELEPHONE=619-3464
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
EDITOR=GARY EDQUIST
CONTENT = (TAPE CUTS IN AUDIO SERVICES)
INTRO: OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS, THE WORLD HAS WITNESSED A
BREAKDOWN IN DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS AT RESOLVING THE ISSUE
OF U-N INSPECTIONS OF WEAPONS SITES IN IRAQ. PRESIDENT
CLINTON HAS SAID HE WOULD USE FORCE IF IRAQ DOES NOT
"SOON" AGREE TO "FREE, FULL, UNFETTERED ACCESS TO THOSE
SITES." THERE HAS BEEN A NATIONAL DEBATE OVER THE
WISDOM OF MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAQ. VOA'S JUDITH
LATHAM HAS TALKED WITH TWO MIDDLE EAST EXPERTS ABOUT THE
CHANCES OF RESOLVING THE CONFLICT WITH DIPLOMACY.
HERE'S _____ WITH A REPORT.
TEXT: MARY-JANE DEEB [DEEB], EDITOR OF THE "MIDDLE EAST
JOURNAL" AND PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AT
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY IN WASHINGTON, D-C, BELIEVES THERE
IS "STILL A CHANCE FOR A DIPLOMATIC SOLUTION." SHE SAYS
THAT CHANCE LIES WITH KOFI ANNAN, SECRETARY GENERAL OF
THE UNITED NATIONS, WHO WILL SOON BE MEETING [EDS: ANNAN
ARRIVES IN BAGHDAD FRIDAY] IN BAGHDAD WITH SADDAM
HUSSEIN AND OTHER IRAQI OFFICIALS.
TAPE: CUT ONE -- DEEB (0:24)
"THE SECRETARY GENERAL HAS BEEN PUSHING ALL ALONG FOR A
DIPLOMATIC RESOLUTION. HE'S ALSO SAID THAT HE WOULD NOT
GO TO BAGHDAD IF HE THOUGHT THERE WAS NO HOPE FOR SUCH A
SOLUTION. SO, THE FACT THAT HE'S GOING WITH THE
BLESSING OF THE FIVE PERMANENT MEMBERS OF THE SECURITY
COUNCIL IS A SIGN THAT A DIPLOMATIC SOLUTION IS STILL
POSSIBLE."
TEXT: PROFESSOR DEEB SAYS WHETHER OR NOT USING MILITARY FORCE
IS JUSTIFIED IS A "MATTER OF PERSPECTIVE."
TAPE: CUT TWO -- DEEB (1:14)
"FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE UNITED STATES, THE FACT
THAT AFTER 7 YEARS THERE ARE STILL WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION BEING FOUND, THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
THAT HE [SADDAM] IS INCREASING HIS STOCK OF SUCH WEAPONS
JUSTIFIES AN ATTACK, WHICH SIGNIFIES THE WEARINESS OF
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WITH THE DIPLOMATIC APPROACH
TO THIS PROBLEM OF PROLIFERATION OF WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION. AND, IN THE ARAB WORLD, AN ATTACK IS SEEN
AS COMPLETELY UNJUSTIFIED. THE GENERAL FEELING IS THAT
PEOPLE WHO HAVE ALREADY SUFFERED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM 7
YEARS OF SANCTIONS SHOULD NOT BE BOMBED BECAUSE THAT
WOULD SIMPLY INCREASE THE INJUSTICE OF WHAT IS SEEN AS
BEFALLING THE IRAQI PEOPLE, [OPT] WHO HAVE NOT ELECTED
SADDAM AND WHO HAVE NOT CHOSEN HIM AS THEIR LEADER AND
WHO HAVE NOT BEEN ASKED WHETHER THEY WANT OR THEY DON'T
WANT THE U-N INSPECTORS. SO, FOR THEM TO PAY THE PRICE
WOULD BE SEEN AS A VERY GRAVE INJUSTICE IN THE ARAB
WORLD. [END OPT] SO, DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU STAND, IT
MAY OR MAY NOT BE JUSTIFIED TO USE FORCE."
TEXT: PROFESSOR DEEB SAYS THAT, FROM A STRATEGIC POINT OF
VIEW, A DIPLOMATIC RESOLUTION TO THE CONFLICT IS VASTLY
PREFERABLE TO A MILITARY ONE.
TAPE: CUT THREE -- DEEB (1:24)
"IF THE BOMBING IS MEANT TO FORCE SADDAM TO COMPLY WITH
THE U-N RESOLUTION AND ALLOW INSPECTORS TO VISIT
UNRESTRICTED ANY SITE THEY WISH TO, BOMBING IRAQ WILL
HAVE THE OPPOSITE EFFECT. SADDAM WILL PROBABLY SAY,
'WELL THEN, FINE, NO MORE INSPECTIONS, AND ALL THE
INSPECTORS OUT FROM HERE!' THE RESULT IS THAT THE
PRESENT LEVEL OF CONTROL THAT WE HAVE OVER THE
PRODUCTION OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION -- CHEMICAL
AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS -- WE WILL LOSE. HITTING A FEW
PALACES MAY NOT ACHIEVE ANYTHING STRATEGICALLY. AND
THIRD, IN THE FINAL ANALYSIS, THE GOAL IS TO OVERTHROW
THE REGIME OF SADDAM HUSSAIN. BOMBING HIM FROM THE AIR
IS CERTAINLY NOT GOING TO DO THAT. ALL MILITARY EXPERTS
WILL TELL YOU THAT IN ORDER TO OVERTHROW THE REGIME, YOU
NEED GROUND FORCES, AND I DON'T THINK ANYONE IS
ADVOCATING SENDING GROUND FORCES. SO, THE BOTTOM LINE
IS, NONE OF THESE OBJECTIVES CAN BE ACHIEVED BY BOMBING.
AND POLITICALLY, IT WILL CERTAINLY STRENGTHEN THE FORCES
WHICH ARE MORE ANTI-WESTERN AND ANTI-AMERICAN IN THE
ARAB WORLD. IN OTHER WORDS, BOMBING WOULD BE
DESTABILIZING TO THE REGION AS A WHOLE. AND THAT TO ME
IS THE MAJOR FALLOUT FROM SUCH AN ATTACK ON IRAQ."
TEXT: HOWEVER, PROFESSOR DEEB SAYS, THE THREAT OF FORCE MAY BE
ABLE TO ACHIEVE WHAT MANY PREFER -- NAMELY, A NEGOTIATED
SOLUTION.
TAPE: CUT FOUR -- DEEB (0:37)
"IN OTHER WORDS, WERE THERE NOT THOSE AIRCRAFT CARRIERS
IN THE GULF, WERE THERE NOT THOSE THREATS EMINATING FROM
WASHINGTON, THEN THE POSSIBLE NEGOTIATED SOLUTION MIGHT
NOT BE FOUND. I BELIEVE THAT KOFI ANNAN COULD FIND A
SOLUTION. [OPT] THERE'S ALREADY A SOLUTION THAT IS BEING
MAPPED OUT -- NAMELY, THAT THE U-N INSPECTORS WOULD BE
ALLOWED TO GO AND VISIT ALL THE PALACES AND ALL THE
SITES THEY WANT TO, IF THEY WERE ACCOMPANIED BY
DIPLOMATS FROM THE COUNTRIES OF THE PERMANENT MEMBERS OF
THE SECURITY COUNCIL. AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A
SOLUTION LYING IN THAT FORMULA." [END OPT]
TEXT: PROFESSOR ABDUL AZIZ SAID [SY-EED], DIRECTOR OF THE
CENTER FOR GLOBAL PEACE AT AMERICAN UNIVERSITY, ALSO
FAVORS EXHAUSTING THE DIPLOMATIC OPTION. HE THINKS THE
U-N SECRETARY GENERAL'S TRIP TO BAGHDAD MAKES A "GOOD
DEAL OF SENSE," ESPECIALLY BECAUSE, UNLIKE THE 1991 GULF
WAR, MANY ARABS TODAY VIEW SADDAM HUSSEIN
SYMPATHETICALLY WHILE THEY VIEW THE UNITED STATES WITH
GREATER SKEPTICISM.
TAPE: CUT FIVE -- SAID (0:44)
"BEAR IN MIND, ARABS IN PARTICULAR AND MUSLIMS IN
GENERAL ARE FINDING THEMSELVES UNWITTINGLY BEGINNING TO
VIEW SADDAM HUSSEIN AS A HERO. SADDAM HUSSEIN IS NO
HERO. HE'S A BRUTAL DICTATOR. HE'S SOMEONE WHO HAS
INDEED USED ALL SORTS OF WEAPONS, INCLUDING GAS, AGAINST
HIS OWN PEOPLE. BUT THAT'S NOT THE POINT. CERTAINLY HE
HAS BEEN A THREAT TO HIS NEIGHBORS, NO QUESTION ABOUT
THAT. ON THE OTHER HAND, WITH WHAT WE ARE DOING,
PRETENDING THAT WE ARE DOING IT TO REDUCE THE THREAT OF
IRAQ, TO REDUCE HIM AS A THREAT, IT IS REALLY ENHANCING
HIS POSITION AMONG ARABS AND AMONG MANY MUSLIMS THAT,
'HEY, THIS IS A PERSON WHO STANDS UP TO THE UNITED
STATES.'"
TEXT: PROFESSOR SAID SAYS HE IS CONCERNED ABOUT THE EFFECT OF
THE LONG-RUNNING CRISIS ON U.S. STANDING IN THE MIDDLE
EAST.
TAPE: CUT SIX -- SAID (0:27)
"AS SOMEONE WHO HAS BEEN TEACHING FOR 41 YEARS, WHO HAS
LIVED IN THE UNITED STATES FOR 45 YEARS, WHO
CONTINUOUSLY TRAVELS TO THE REGION, U.S. PRESTIGE AT
THIS TIME IN THE ARAB WORLD IS THE LOWEST THAT I HAVE
SEEN. FOR ME, THAT'S OF GREAT CONCERN, PARTICULARLY
WHEN THE [MIDDLE EAST] PEACE PROCESS HAS COLLAPSED. AND
I'M TALKING ABOUT ARAB STATES THAT ARE PRO-U-S."
TEXT: MIDDLE EAST EXPERTS MARY-JANE DEEB AND ABDUL AZIZ SAID
ACKNOWLEDGE THAT, IF THE DIPLOMATIC OPTION FAILS, THE
UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES MAY WELL GO TO WAR AGAINST
IRAQ. IN THE LONG-TERM INTERESTS OF PEACE IT THE
REGION, THEY -- LIKE MANY OTHER PEOPLE AROUND WORLD --
HOPE THE DIPLOMATIC OPTION WILL SUCCEED. [OPT] IF IT
DOES NOT AND THE CONFLICT IS ULTIMATELY RESOLVED BY
FORCE, WE WILL TALK AGAIN WITH THESE EXPERTS ABOUT THE
AFTERMATH OF WAR AND THE PROCESS OF REBUILDING THAT WILL
THEN BE NECESSARY. [END OPT]
19-Feb-98 1:19 PM EST (1819 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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