DATE=2/19/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-39032
TITLE=ARAB NATIONS AND U-S POLICY
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: THE GROWING ANXIETY OF ARAB COUNTRIES OVER U-S POLICY
TOWARD IRAQ WAS THE SUBJECT OF DISCUSSION AT A RECENT MEETING
(TODAY--THURSDAY) AT GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY . V-O-A'S ED
WARNER ATTENDED AND HAS THIS REPORT
TEXT: BEFORE THE PERSIAN GULF WAR, ARAB COUNTRIES FELL IN LINE
WITH U-S POLICY BECAUSE SADDAM HUSSEIN HAD CLEARLY COMMMITTED AN
ACT OF AGGRESSION. THIS TIME IT IS DIFFERENT, SAID NATHAN BROWN,
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT THE GEORGE WASHINGTON
UNIVERSITY ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS.
HE ALSO NOTED THERE IS GROWING RESENTMENT OF U-S POLICY ON A
POPULAR LEVEL, SUSPICION ON A LEADERSHIP LEVEL:
// BROWN ACT //
AMONG THE REGIMES THAT ARE FAIRLY CLOSELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UNITED STATES, YOU HEAR THIS SAME FORMULATION
AGAIN AND AGAIN ON THE CURRENT CRISIS: IRAQ SHOULD ABIDE
BY U-N SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTIONS, BUT WE HOPE FOR A
DIPLOMATIC SOLUTION. YOU HEAR THAT FROM THE SAUDIS, FROM
THE BAHRAINIS, FROM THE QATARIS, FROM THE EGYPTIANS, AND
THESE ARE COUNTRIES WHERE WE HAVE IN SOME CASES FAIRLY
CLOSE SECURITY RELATIONS.
// END ACT //
PROFESSOR BROWN SAID THE ARAB NATIONS WORRY ABOUT THE IMPACT OF A
MILITARY STRIKE ON THEIR POPULATIONS, BUT THEY FEEL POWERLESS TO
PREVENT IT AND ARE TRYING TO INSULATE THEMSELVES AS BEST THEY
CAN.
DALIA DASSA KAYE, AN ASSISTANT PROFESSOR AT THE ELLIOTT SCHOOL,
SAID THE ARAB NATIONS ARE MOSTLY CONFUSED ABOUT U-S POLICY:
// KAYE ACT //
TODAY WHILE CERTAINLY NO REGIONAL STATE WOULD LIKE TO
SEE SADDAM HUSSEIN CONTINUE IN POWER OR WOULD LIKE TO
SEE HIM CONTINUE TO DEVELOP HIS WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION, THERE IS FAR LESS CONSENSUS ABOUT THE SCOPE
OF THE PRESENT CRISIS, THE SCOPE AND MISSION OF UNSCOM,
THE ARMS INSPECTORS. THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT THE
PRECEDENT THAT SUCH AN INTRUSIVE ARMS INSPECTION REGIME
SETS FOR ARAB COUNTRIES CONCERNED WITH THEIR OWN
INTERNAL AND DOMESTIC SOVEREIGNTY.
// END ACT //
PROFESSOR KAYE SAID ARAB NATIONS FEEL SHUT OUT OF WHAT HAS BECOME
A SHOWDOWN BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND IRAQ. FOR THEM, IT IS NO
LONGER AN INTERNATIONAL OR EVEN A REGIONAL MATTER, BUT A TWO-WAY
DUEL.
SHE ADDED A U-S ATTACK COULD LEAD TO MORE CRITICISM OF THE
ECONOMIC SANCTIONS ON IRAQ. PROFESSOR BROWN SAID PEOPLE IN THE
MIDDLE EAST WONDER IF THE SANCTIONS WOULD BE LIFTED EVEN IF IRAQ
COMPLIED WITH ALL THE U-N RESOLUTIONS:
// BROWN ACT //
AT TIMES THE UNITED STATES HAS HINTED "YES," AND AT
TIMES WE HAVE HINTED, "WELL, AS LONG AS SADDAM HUSSEIN
IS IN POWER, WE REALLY HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT
THE SANCTIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE," THE IMPLICATION
BEING THAT THE SANCTIONS ARE THERE TO REMOVE HIM FROM
POWER. AND THEY WILL LIVE AS LONG AS HE DOES.
// END ACT //
FOR ALL THE FEARS OF THE ARAB NATIONS, BOTH PROFESSORS BROWN AND
KAYE THINK A U-S MILITARY ATTACK WILL NOT HAVE GRAVE EFFECTS ON
THE REGION UNLESS IT LASTS TOO LONG. (SIGNED)
NEB/PT
19-Feb-98 9:57 PM EST (0257 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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