DATE=2/18/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-39009
TITLE=ARAB RESPONSE TO A U-S ATTACK (2)
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: THE POSSIBILITY OF BUILDING AN IRAQI OPPOSITION MOVEMENT
AGAINST SADDAM HUSSEIN WAS DISCUSSED AT A RECENT CONFERENCE OF
THE MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE IN WASHINGTON. ONE PARTICIPANT THOUGHT
SUCH A POLICAL MOVE SHOULD BE AN ALTERNATIVE TO A U-S MILITARY
ATTACK. OTHERS CONSIDERED THE OPPOSITION TOO WEAK AND DIVIDED.
V-O-A'S ED WARNER PROVIDES THE SECOND OF TWO REPORTS ON THE
CONFERENCE.
TEXT: AT A RECENT CONFERENCE HELD BY THE MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE,
OPINION WAS SHARPLY DIVIDED ON WHETHER THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
SUPPORT AN IRAQI OPPOSITION MOVEMENT TO SADDAM HUSSEIN.
ROBERT PELLETREAU, FORMER U-S ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE FOR
NEAR EASTERN AND SOUTH ASIAN AFFAIRS, DOUBTED IT IS WORTH THE
EFFORT:
// PELLETREAU ACT //
IN FACT, THE OPPOSITION IS RENT WITH DIVISIONS. IT
CANNOT EVEN BE SPOKEN OF IN THE SINGULAR. IT IS THE
OPPOSITIONS. DESPITE THE OVERWHELMING LOGIC OF BEING
ABLE TO UNIFY AND GET TOGETHER, THEY NEVER HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO UNIFY. INTERNAL RIVALRIES, DIFFERENCES OF
VIEWPOINTS AND PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANT, DIFFERENCES IN
AND AMONG THE GOVERNMENTS THAT SUPPORT VARIOUS SPLINTERS
AND GROUPS OF THE OPPOSITION HAVE PREVENTED THEM FROM
BECOMING A MAJOR FACTOR IN THE IRAQI EQUATION.
// END ACT //
GIVEN THE DIVISION AMONG OUTSIDERS, MR. PELLETREAU SAID CHANGE IN
IRAQ MUST COME FROM WITHIN. PAUL WOLFOWITZ, DEAN OF THE SCHOOL OF
ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES AT JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY, SAID
HE HAS HEARD ALL THIS BEFORE:
// WOLFOWITZ ACT //
I HEARD ONLY TOO RECENTLY FROM A FAR TOO SENIOR OFFICIAL
IN THE U-S STATE DEPARTMENT THE USUAL LINE THAT THE
OPPOSITION IS FECKLESS. I THINK OUR SUPPORT FOR THE
OPPOSITION IS WHAT HAS BEEN FECKLESS. WE HAVE NEVER
GIVEN ANY ARMS SUPPORT TO THE IRAQI OPPOSITION. I DO NOT
KNOW OF A CASE WHERE THE UNITED STATES HAS SUPPORTED THE
ARMED OVERTHROW OF A LEADER IN A SERIOUS WAY AND NOT
PROVIDED ARMS TO DO IT WITH.
// END ACT //
MR. WOLFOWITZ SAID BUILDING AN OPPOSITION IS NOT AS HARD AS IT IS
MADE OUT TO BE. TAKE AFGHANISTAN, WHERE U-S SUPPORT CONTRIBUTED
TO VICTORY OVER THE SOVIET ARMY, A FAR MORE POWERFUL FORCE THAN
EXISTS TODAY IN IRAQ. IN FACT, MR. WOLFOWITZ SAID IRAQI UNITS
MIGHT QUICKLY SURRENDER TO A DETERMINED OPPOSITION.
HE STRESSED THAT U-S SUPPORT MUST BE OPEN AND DECLARED, AS IT WAS
IN THE CASE OF PHILIPPINES LEADER FERDINAND MARCOS:
// WOLFOWITZ ACT //
IN LARGE PART BECAUSE THE UNITED STATES MADE IT CLEAR
THAT WE WELCOMED AN ALTERNATIVE TO MARCOS AND THAT WE
WOULD SUPPORT PEOPLE WHO TOOK THEIR FATE IN THEIR OWN
HANDS, THE PHILIPPINE OPPOSITION GOT TOGETHER. A VERY
DIVIDED OPPOSITION UNIFIED BEHIND A SINGLE PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATE. AS A RESULT, MARCOS LOST AN ELECTION THAT HE
THOUGHT WOULD BE SPLIT AMONG THE OPPOSITION, AND WE NOW
HAVE A PRETTY RESPECTABLE DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENT IN THE
PHILIPPINES.
// END ACT //
MR. WOLFOWITZ CONCEDED IRAQ IS NOT THE PHILIPPINES, BUT
SUPPORTING AN OPPOSITION IS BETTER THAN BOMBING DOWNTOWN BAGHDAD.
JAMES ZOGBY, PRESIDENT OF THE ARAB AMERICAN INSTITUTE, CAUTIONED
THAT AN IRAQI OPPOSITION MOVEMENT WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE
REGION:
// ZOGBY ACT //
SAY WE WERE GOING TO SET UP A GOVERNMENT IN EXILE. WHERE
WOULD WE SITUATE IT? IN SAUDI ARABIA OR IN JORDAN OR IN
SYRIA OR IN TURKEY OR IRAN, ALL OF WHICH HAVE
CONSEQUENCES. ONE BECOMES VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE OTHER
AND EACH OF WHICH PRODUCES A VERY DIFFERENT RESULT AND
WOULD BE PLAYED OUT IN THE REGION IN A VERY DIFFERENT
WAY.
// END ACT //
MR. ZOGBY SAID A SUCCESSFUL OPPOSITION COULD LEAD TO THE
FRAGMENTING OF IRAQ AND DESTABILIZATION IN THE REGION. (SIGNED)
NEB/PT
-
18-Feb-98 8:01 PM EST (0101 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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