DATE=2/18/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-39008
TITLE=ARAB RESPONSE TO A U-S ATTACK (1)
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: AS A U-S ATTACK ON IRAQ APPEARS TO DRAW CLOSER, ANALYSTS
ARE CONSIDERING ITS IMPACT ON THE MIDDLE EAST, PERHAPS
STRENGTHENING OPPOSITION TO SADDAM HUSSEIN OR POSSIBLY LEADING TO
A SURGE OF ANTI-AMERICANISM. THESE AND OTHER SCENARIOS WERE
DISCUSSED AT A RECENT CONFERENCE HELD BY THE MIDDLE EAST
INSTITUTE IN WASHINGTON. V-O-A'S ED WARNER PROVIDES THE FIRST OF
TWO REPORTS.
TEXT: HOW WILL THE ARAB WORLD REACT TO A U-S ATTACK ON IRAQ?
THAT QUESTION WAS CONSIDERED AT A RECENT MEETING OF THE MIDDLE
EAST INSTITUTE IN WASHINGTON AND LED TO A VARIETY OF ANSWERS.
JAMES ZOGBY, PRESIDENT OF THE ARAB AMERICAN INSTITUTE, SAID THE
UNITED STATES IS NOT TAKING SUFFICIENT ACCOUNT OF PUBLIC OPINION
IN THE MIDDLE EAST:
// ZOGBY ACT //
ARAB PUBLIC OPINION OUGHT NOT TO BE TAKEN FOR GRANTED,
AS IT ALL TOO OFTEN IS. BUT I WOULD SAY THAT NOT ONLY IS
ARAB OPINION TAKEN FOR GRANTED BUT THE VERY HUMANITY OF
ARABS, THE VERY FACT THAT THERE IS NOT ONLY ARAB
SUFFERING BUT THAT THERE ARE ARAB FEELINGS THAT MUST BE
CONSIDERED IN THE POLICY DEBATE IS ALL TOO OFTEN
IGNORED.
// END ACT //
MR. ZOGBY SAID ON A RECENT VISIT TO THE MIDDLE EAST, HE WAS
STRUCK BY THE DEPTH OF ARAB ANGER AND FRUSTRATION OVER U-S POLICY
THAT SEEMS TO PURSUE A DOUBLE STANDARD: AID AND COMPASSION FOR
ISRAEL, THREATS AND SANCTIONS FOR ARABS. HE THOUGHT AN ATTACK ON
IRAQ COULD TRIGGER A POPULAR EXPLOSION.
THIS IS AN EXAGGERATION, SAID ROBERT PELLETREAU, FORMER U-S
ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE FOR NEAR EASTERN AND SOUTH ASIAN
AFFAIRS:
// PELLETREAU ACT //
OBVIOUSLY, ARAB PUBLIC OPINION IS A FACTOR, BUT IT
CANNOT BE A CONTROLLING FACTOR. AND IT IS NOT
MONOLITHIC. WE SHOULD TRY TO ADDRESS IT AND SPEAK TO IT
AND SPEAK TO THE POINTS THAT ARE RAISED ON IT. BUT IF
YOU WANT TO SEE A DOUBLE STANDARD, WHY NOT CHECK IN WITH
THE ARAB ATTITUDE TOWARD SELF-DETERMINATION FOR
PALESTINIANS VERSUS SELF-DETERMINATION FOR KURDS, WHICH
IS A MUCH LARGER COMMUNITY SPREAD CURRENTLY OVER FOUR
DIFFERENT COUNTRIES.
// END ACT //
RICHARD HAASS, DIRECTOR OF FOREIGN POLICY STUDIES AT THE
BROOKINGS INSTITUTION AND A KEY ADVISER TO PRESIDENT BUSH DURING
THE GULF WAR, SAID SADDAM HUSSEIN SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO
EXPLOIT THE SHIFT IN ARAB OPINION. THE FACT THAT HE IS TRYING TO
CURTAIL INSPECTIONS OF HIS WEAPONRY SHOWS THEY ARE HURTING:
// HAASS ACT //
TO SOME EXTENT, THAT IS A COMPLIMENT. IT IS A SIGN THAT
THESE REGIMES HAVE WORKED EXTRAORDINARILY WELL OVER THE
LAST SEVEN YEARS. BUT IT ALSO REFLECTS AN ASSESSMENT ON
HIS PART THAT FOR VARIOUS REASONS, THE COALITION ARRAYED
AGAINST HIM IS NOT WHAT IT WAS AND THAT HE HAS
OPPORTUNITIES NOW TO BREAK OUT BASED UPON AN ASSESSMENT
THAT THE BENEFITS OF DOING SO ARE CLEAR AND THE COSTS OF
DOING SO ARE NOT SO GREAT AS TO OFFSET THE BENEFITS.
// END ACT //
PAUL WOLFOWITZ, DEAN OF THE SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL
STUDIES AT JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY AND UNDER SECRETARY OF
DEFENSE IN THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION, WANTS TO PURSUE A LONG RANGE
POLICY TO BRING DOWN SADDAM'S REGIME, BUT HE FEARS THE EFFECT OF
BOMBING ON THE ARAB POPULATIONS:
// WOLFOWITZ ACT //
IT IS THE EXTREMISTS WHO WILL FEED ON WHAT WE ARE DOING,
AND IT IS THE PEOPLE WHO ARE MOST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEST - EITHER BECAUSE THEY ARE DEMOCRATIC FIGURES AND
SEEM TO EMBRACE OUR VALUES OR BECAUSE THEY ARE
PRO-WESTERN REGIMES AND EMBRACE OUR POLICIES - WHO ARE
GOING TO BE UNDER THE MOST PRESSURE AS A RESULT OF THIS.
SO I AT LEAST THINK THERE IS A CONTRADICTION BETWEEN
MASSIVE BOMBING AND TRYING TO GET THE STRATEGY ON TO THE
RIGHT TRACK.
// END ACT //
NOTING THE RISING DEMONSTRATIONS IN CAIRO, EGYPTIAN PRESIDENT
HOSNI MUBARAK SAID IF THE UNITED STATES ATTACKS IRAQ, "WE ARE
GOING TO FACE A HELL OF A PROBLEM. THERE ARE EXTREMISTS WAITING
TO ACT." (SIGNED)
NEB/PT
18-Feb-98 8:01 PM EST (0101 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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