DATE=2/12/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-38941
TITLE= BRITAIN / IRAQ
BYLINE= ANDRE DE NESNERA
DATELINE= LONDON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: AS THE AMERICAN AND BRITISH MILITARY PRESENCE GROWS IN
THE PERSIAN GULF, VARIOUS EXPERTS IN LONDON ARE QUESTIONING, WITH
GROWING URGENCY, WHAT EXACTLY IS THE GOAL OF A SUSTAINED MILITARY
CAMPAIGN AGAINST IRAQ? V-O-A'S ANDRE DE NESNERA REPORTS FROM
LONDON.
TEXT: FOR WEEKS NOW, AMERICAN AND BRITISH OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN
WARNING IRAQI LEADER SADDAM HUSSEIN OF STRONG MILITARY ACTION IF
HE DOES NOT ALLOW U-N WEAPON INSPECTORS UNLIMITED ACCESS IN
IRAQ.
AT THE SAME TIME, WASHINGTON AND LONDON HAVE MADE CLEAR THEY
FAVOR A DIPLOMATIC SOLUTION TO THE CRISIS. BUT THEY HAVE
BOLSTERED THOSE CALLS FOR A PEACEFUL OUTCOME WITH AN INCREASED
MILITARY PRESENCE IN THE PERSIAN GULF.
KEY QUESTIONS FACING MILITARY PLANNERS INCLUDE WHAT WILL BE THE
TARGETS OF AN EVENTUAL MILITARY AIR STRIKE AGAINST IRAQ AND WHAT
WILL SUCH ACTION REALLY ACCOMPLISH? RECENTLY HERE IN BRITAIN,
VARIOUS RETIRED SENIOR MILITARY OFFICERS, LAWMAKERS AND DEFENSE
EXPERTS HAVE BEEN SAYING THE GOAL OF THE MILITARY STRIKE IS -- AT
BEST -- FUZZY.
ONE OF THOSE IS ANALYST TIM BUTCHER, DEFENSE CORRESPONDENT FOR
THE BRITISH NEWSPAPER "THE DAILY TELEGRAPH." HE SAYS THE PUBLICLY
STATED AIM BY WASHINGTON AND LONDON IS TO HAVE THEIR MILITARIES
TARGET SADDAM HUSSEIN'S SUSPECTED CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS
SITES.
// BUTCHER ACT //
BUT THE PROBLEM IS THEY SIMPLY DO NOT KNOW ENOUGH
ABOUT THOSE FACILITIES. WHERE THEY ARE? WHAT THEY HAVE
GOT IN THEM? WHAT CHANCES THEY HAVE OF DESTROYING THEM?
SO FROM A MILITARY POINT OF VIEW, THERE IS NOT A
MILITARY PLANNER IN BRITAIN OR AMERICA WHO CAN ACTUALLY
LOOK THE POLITICIANS IN THE EYE AND SAY, "YEP. I CAN
GIVE YOU A LIST OF MILITARY TARGETS AND WE CAN DESTROY
THESE THINGS."
// END ACT //
SO MR. BUTCHER BELIEVES DESPITE STATEMENTS TO THE CONTRARY,
MILITARY STRIKES MAY INCLUDE TARGETS WHICH POLITICIANS HOPE WOULD
SERIOUSLY ERODE SADDAM HUSSEIN'S POWER BASE. THE BRITISH DEFENSE
ANALYST SAYS THESE MAY INCLUDE HIS INNER CIRCLE, MEMBERS OF THE
RULING BA'ATH PARTY AND PEOPLE HE HAS PLACED IN POSITIONS OF
AUTHORITY SUCH AS THE HEAD OF RADIO AND TELEVISION, LEADERS OF
INDUSTRY AND SENIOR INTELLIGENCE OFFICIALS. THERE ARE ALSO
SPECIFIC TARGET SITES.
// SECOND BUTCHER ACT //
THESE ARE BUILDINGS. THESE ARE LOCATIONS THAT THE
MILITARY OR THE WESTERN INTELLIGENCE NETWORKS KNOW FULLY
ABOUT AND THEY COULD BE ATTACKED AND THEY COULD BE
DESTROYED. AND THAT WOULD BE A VERY CLEAR WAY OF DOING
TWO THINGS: FIRST OF ALL SENDING A SIGNAL TO SADDAM
HUSSEIN THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY MEANS BUSINESS.
AND SECONDLY, SENDING A SIGNAL TO THE POLITICAL
OPPONENTS IN IRAQ OF SADDAM HUSSEIN THAT NOW WOULD BE
THE TIME FOR A PALACE COUP -- NOW, WITH SADDAM HUSSEIN'S
SUPPORT DAMAGED BY WESTERN BOMBERS, NOW WOULD BE THE
TIME TO MOVE. NOW THAT LAST STRATEGY IS A VERY HIGH RISK
STRATEGY -- BUT IT MIGHT BE THE STRATEGY THAT PREVAILS.
// END ACT / /
//OPT// THE BRITISH DEFENSE EXPERT SAYS THERE IS NO DOUBT
ELIMINATING WHAT HE CALLS "THE MAIN PROPS OF SADDAM HUSSEIN'S
REGIME" WILL INVOLVE A LONG BOMBING ATTACK. AND HE SAYS MILITARY
PLANNERS ARE WELL-AWARE THERE WILL INEVITABLY BE CIVILIAN
CASUALTIES.
// THIRD BUTCHER ACT //
THE TYPE OF MISSION WE HAVE BEEN JUST DISCUSSING, THE
TYPE WHERE WE HAVE A SUSTAINED BOMBING ATTACK AGAINST
THE PROPS OF SADDAM HUSSEIN'S STATE WILL DEFINITELY
CREATE COLLATERAL DAMAGE, WILL DEFINITELY CREATE
CIVILIAN CASUALTIES. IT WILL NOT BE SO PRECISE AS TO
BE ABLE TO SURGICALLY TAKE OUT TARGETS WITHOUT CAUSING
PROBLEMS. IT WILL HAVE TO NECESSARILY CAUSE PROBLEMS AND
IF SADDAM HUSSEIN -- WHO HAS BEEN IN THE PAST VERY
SKILLFUL AT USING THE COLLATERAL DAMAGE TO WORK FOR HIS
OWN PROPAGANDA GOALS -- SADDAM HUSSEIN WILL NOT MISS
THAT TRICK AND I AM SURE IT WILL BE PLAYED.
// END ACT // //END OPT//
DEFENSE ANALYST TIM BUTCHER AGREES A POLICY OF NEUTRALIZING
SADDAM HUSSEIN IS NOT AS CLEAR AS LIBERATING A COUNTRY -- WHICH
WAS THE CASE DURING THE 1991 GULF WAR TO LIBERATE KUWAIT. BUT HE
SAYS ONE CANNOT COMPARE THE GULF WAR WITH THE CURRENT CRISIS. HE
SAYS THEN YOU NEEDED A COALITION TO OUST SADDAM HUSSEIN FROM
KUWAIT. BUT NOW MR. BUTCHER SAYS, "IF YOU ARE JUST GOING TO DROP
BOMBS ON IRAQ, YOU DO NOT NEED A VAST COALITION." (SIGNED)
NEB/ADEN/PCF
12-Feb-98 10:20 AM EST (1520 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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