DATE=2/11/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-38939
TITLE=IRAQ / ANTI-US COALITION
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRODUCTION: THE RELUCTANCE OF MOST COUNTRIES TO GO ALONG WITH
A MILITARY ATTACK ON IRAQ HAS LED ONE SCHOLAR TO FORESEE A
COALITION FORMING AGAINST THE UNITED STATES. VOA'S ED WARNER
EXPLORES THE ISSUE WITH SOME AMERICAN ANALYSTS.
TEXT: A FEW MONTHS BEFORE HE INVADED KUWAIT IN 1990, SADDAM
HUSSEIN GAVE A SPEECH IN WHICH HE SAID THE UNITED STATES IS THE
NEW WORLD POWER BUT WOULD SOON BE CHALLENGED BY A COALITION OF
SMALLER POWERS THAT DO NOT ACCEPT U-S HEGEMONY.
PRESIDENT SADDAM'S CHALLENGE TO THE UNITED STATES HAS NOT WORKED,
SAYS SHIBLEY TELHAMI, WHO HOLDS THE ANWAR SADAT CHAIR AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND. BUT, HE SAYS, THE IRAQI LEADER HAS
PROVED TO BE SOMETHING OF A PROPHET:
/// TELHAMI ACT ///
HE ENVISIONED A COMBINATION OF RUSSIA, EUROPE AND JAPAN
TO COME TOGETHER WITHIN FIVE YEARS. IT IS A FASCINATING
THING INDEED IN TERMS OF HIS OWN PERSPECTIVE ON A
BALANCE OF POWER KIND OF WORLD. UNFORTUNATELY, HE
CLEARLY MISCALCULATED. LOOKING AT THE WORLD THROUGH THE
SIMPLE SPECTACLES OF THAT SORT YOU MISS A LOT OF DETAIL
THAT COLORS THE NATURE OF WORLD POLITICS ON THE VERGE OF
THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY.
/// END ACT ///
A COALITION SOMEWHAT ALONG THE LINES SADDAM HUSSEIN ENVISIONED IS
NOW BEING FORMED, ACCORDING TO ARIEL COHEN, A SENIOR POLICY
ANALYST AT THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION IN WASHINGTON.
WRITING IN "THE WASHINGTON TIMES" NEWSPAPER, MR. COHEN SAYS
RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER EVGENY PRIMAKOV HAS DEFTLY USED THE
CURRENT CRISIS WITH IRAQ TO EXPLOIT ANTI-AMERICAN SENTIMENTS AND
PUT TOGETHER A LOOSE COALITION OF ARAB NATIONALISTS, IRANIAN
SHIITES, CHINA'S LEADERS AND EVEN THE FRENCH FOREIGN POLICY
ELITE.
DESPITE RUSSIA'S CURRENT WEAKNESS, SAYS MR. COHEN, FOREIGN
MINISTER PRIMAKOV AIMS TO MAKE HIS COUNTRY A MAJOR PLAYER IN THE
MIDDLE EAST AND REDUCE AMERICAN INFLUENCE. AND NOT ONLY THERE.
HE SAYS U-S POLICY IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT COULD ALSO BE JEOPARDIZED
BY THIS FAR-REACHING COALITION.
MR. COHEN URGES THE RUSSIANS TO RECONSIDER.
/// COHEN ACT ///
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT RUSSIA IS A WEAK POWER. I HOPE
THE RUSSIAN ELITES WILL UNDERSTAND THAT THE ANTI-WESTERN
AND ANTI-AMERICAN TACK (COURSE) TAKEN BY PRIMAKOV IN THE
LONG TERM DEFEATS RUSSIAN NATIONAL INTERESTS. IT DENIES
OR WEAKENS THE FLOW OF FOREIGN INVESTMENT TO THAT
COUNTRY. IT DESTABILIZES THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT. IT
DOES A DISSERVICE TO THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE.
/// END ACT ///
DAVID HENDRICKSON, PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT COLORADO
COLLEGE, SAYS ANY SORT OF EFFECTIVE ALLIANCE AGAINST THE UNITED
STATES DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY, AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM.
/// HENDRICKSON ACT ///
IT DOES NOT SEEM TO ME THAT A COUNTER-COALITION CAN BE
FORMED THAT CAN BLOCK THE UNITED STATES. BUT I DO THINK
THE ADMINISTRATION WILL PAY A VERY SIGNIFICANT PRICE BY
PROCEEDING UNILATERALLY IN THIS INSTANCE: AN INCREASING
ALIENATION FROM THE UNITED STATES AND A RESISTANCE TO
ACCEPTING AT FACE VALUE THE CLAIMS TO LEADERSHIP THAT WE
MAKE IN THE WORLD.
/// END ACT ///
PROFESSOR HENDRICKSON SAYS THE BEST WAY FOR THE UNITED STATES TO
STOP A COUNTER-COALITION IS TO PRESERVE ITS CURRENT COALITION.
(SIGNED)
NEB/EW/SP
11-Feb-98 5:42 PM EST (2242 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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