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06 February 1998

TEXT: UK FOREIGN OFFICE PAPER ON IRAQI THREAT, WORK OF UNSCOM

(Issued by FCO and UK Presidency of the European Union) (1380)
Washington -- The United Kingdom Foreign Secretary released to
Parliament a paper on the work done by the United Nations Special
Commission (UNSCOM) and the threat from Iraq's weapons of mass
destruction (WMD). A Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) press
release was made available by the UK Presidency of the European Union
and distributed at a White House Joint Press Briefing conducted
February 5 by the President's Official Spokesman and the Prime
Minister's Official Spokesman.
The Prime Minister's Official Spokesman said at the joint press
briefing that Prime Minister Blair and President Clinton agreed on an
Iraq strategy "that can be summed up as educate, diplomatize, and
prepare." The FCO paper is an important element in the education
strategy.
Following is the text of the FCO press release distributed in
Washington:
(Begin text)
UK Presidency of the European Union
Press Release
4 February 1998
FOREIGN OFFICE PAPER ON IRAQI THREAT AND WORK OF UNSCOM
The Foreign Secretary today released to Parliament an FCO paper on the
work done by the U.S. Special Commission (UNSCOM) and the continuing
threat from Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD).
The Foreign Office have produced the paper in response to strong
Parliamentary and public interest in Iraq's existing WMD capability
and the efforts of the international community to destroy Saddam
Hussein's stocks and prevent him from developing his weapons
programmes further.
Copies of the paper are being placed in the Libraries of both Houses
and are being sent individually to all members of Parliament.
On leaving for Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, Robin Cook said:
"We are facing a grave situation. The authority of the United Nations
is at stake. It is important that we make the fullest information
available to Parliament and the public. Iraq has built up an appalling
stock of weapons. We must be certain that they are totally eradicated
and cannot be rebuilt."
U.N. SPECIAL COMMISSION (UNSCOM)
The Mandate
Under U.N. Security Council Resolution (SCR) 687 (April 1991), which
set out the cease-fire terms for ending the Gulf War, Iraq is obliged
to:
(a) accept the destruction, removal, or rendering harmless of all its
-- nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons, and ballistic missiles
with a range over 150 kilometers; and
-- research, development, and manufacturing facilities associated with
the above; and
(b) undertake not to develop such weapons in the future.
The Secretary-General was instructed to establish a Special Commission
(UNSCOM) to oversee these processes. Iraq must give full co-operation,
in particular immediate, unrestricted access to any site UNSCOM needs
to inspect.
What has UNSCOM achieved?
Despite constant Iraqi deceit, concealment, harassment and
obstruction, UNSCOM has succeeded in destroying:
-- 38,000 chemical weapons,
-- 480,000 litres of live chemical weapon agents,
-- 48 operational missiles,
-- six missile launchers,
-- 30 special missile warheads for chemical and biological weapons,
-- hundreds of items of CW production equipment. Iraq originally
claimed much of it was for peaceful use but later admitted its real
purpose.
-- Iraq claimed that the VX nerve gas project was a failure. UNSCOM
has discovered Iraq had the capability to produce VX on an industrial
scale, and produced four tonnes. Work was also going on into numerous
other agents: sarin, tabun and mustard gas.
-- the Al Hakam BW factory (3kms by 6kms), which was able to produce
50,000 litres of anthrax and botulinum. Iraq claimed it was for animal
feed.
One hundred kilograms of anthrax released from the top of a tall
building in a densely populated area could kill up to three million
people.
UNSCOM has also discovered that Iraq produced 19,000 litres of
botulinum, 8,400 litres of anthrax, 2,000 litres of aflatoxin
(produces liver cancer) and clostridium (gas gangrene). Iraq has
admitted filling ballistic missile warheads and bombs with the first
three of these agents. These weapons were subsequently destroyed. Iraq
denied the existence of all of these biological agents until August
1995.
UNSCOM has also put into place a systematic monitoring system to watch
facilities suspected of producing WMD.
Why is UNSCOM still concerned?
Iraq has consistently tried to evade its responsibilities. Its
required full disclosure document on missiles was not produced until
July 1996, five years after it was demanded. It has so far produced
three versions on chemical weapons and four on biological weapons, all
shown to be seriously inaccurate.
In particular, UNSCOM is concerned that:
-- Iraq may still have operational SCUD-type missiles with chemical
and biological warheads. Critical missile components, warheads, and
propellant are not accounted for. Nor are 17 tonnes of growth media
for BW agents -- enough to produce more than three times the amount of
anthrax Iraq admits it had. Key items of CW production equipment are
also missing.
-- UNSCOM strongly suspects that admitted Iraqi figures for production
of BW agent are still too low.
-- Iraq's CW programme was on an enormous scale. 4,000 tonnes of CW
precursors are not accounted for. These could have produced several
hundred tonnes of CW agents, enough to fill several thousand
munitions. Over 31,000 CW munitions are not accounted for.
-- Over 600 tonnes of VX precursors are also not accounted for. These
could make 200 tonnes of VX. One drop is enough to kill. 200 tonnes
could wipe out the world's population.
Iraq's obstructionism
-- Iraq has consistently denied UNSCOM inspectors the access they need
to follow up these and other concerns and locate both WMD capabilities
and documentation which might reveal more about Iraq's WMD programmes.
Documents and material have been removed from and destroyed inside
sites while UNSCOM inspectors have been held outside prevented from
entering. The pattern of defiance has got worse over time. Throughout
most of 1997 Iraq made difficulties over access to an arbitrary and
self-advised category of supposed "sensitive" sites. Iraq has now put
an absolute ban on visits by UNSCOM to so-called "Presidential" sites,
and has imposed a unilateral deadline of 20 May for the lifting of
sanctions. It has tried to claim that UNSCOM inspection teams contain
a disproportionate number of UK and US inspectors.
-- Hostile demonstrations against UNSCOM have been organized. Iraqi
"minders" have even endangered lives by trying to take control of
UNSCOM helicopters in mid-air.
Why continued monitoring is important
UNSCON needs to continue to monitor Iraqi WMD facilities because:
-- UNSCOM has evidence of a deliberate government-controlled mechanism
of concealment to continue developing WMD and procuring materials.
Given the chance, Iraq would undoubtedly resume WMD production.
-- Iraq has four plants which have been used to produce CW munitions,
and 30 which could be converted to produce CW materials. It has
numerous personnel with the required expertise. These factories cannot
be destroyed because they have legitimate alternative civilian uses.
But it is important that they are monitored closely.
-- Without monitoring, Iraq could produce CW and BW in weeks, a
long-range missile in a year, and a nuclear weapon in five years.
-- Iraq could produce up to 350 litres of weapons grade anthrax per
week -- enough to fill two missile warheads. It could produce mustard
CW agent within weeks.
-- Iraq has continued trying to acquire banned WMD technology. In late
1995 Jordan intercepted a shipment of advanced missile guidance parts
on the way to Iraq.
The former Chairman of UNSCOM, Ambassador Rolf Ekeus stated publicly
in 1993 that he believed Iraq fully intends to restore its military
industrial base. "The capabilities are there, the supply system
including banks and payments is there. The day the oil embargo is
lifted, Iraq will get all the cash. With the cash, the suppliers, and
the skills they will be able to re-establish all the weapons.... It
may grow up like mushrooms after the rain."
That remains true today.
The present chairman of UNSCOM, Ambassador Richard Butler told the
Security Council on 23 January 1996 that
"If Iraq...avoids answering questions...and prevents UNSCOM from
finding the answers, it is gravely to be doubted that we would be able
to verify Iraq's claims that it has met its disarmament obligations
established by the Security Council."
"Iraq appears determined to withhold any further information, and to
prevent UNSCOM from finding it itself."
(End text)