DATE= 11/11/97
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-38050
TITLE=U-S / IRAQ: WHAT IN THE LONG RUN?
BYLINE=MAXIM KNIAZKOV
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: THE LATEST SHOWDOWN BETWEEN THE UNITED NATIONS AND IRAQ
HAS PROMPTED CALLS FOR A REASSESSMENT OF THE U-S APPROACH TOWARD
THE GOVERNMENT OF SADDAM HUSSEIN. BUT WHILE SOME EXPERTS APPEAL
FOR A CONCERTED U-S EFFORT TO TOPPLE THE DEFIANT IRAQI PRESIDENT,
OTHERS CAUTION SUCH A STRATEGY COULD DO WASHINGTON MORE HARM THAN
GOOD. V-O-A'S MAXIM KNIAZKOV LOOKS INTO THE DILEMMA FACED BY THE
CLINTON ADMINISTRATION.
TEXT: WITH RHETORIC SURROUNDING THE STANDOFF BETWEEN THE UNITED
NATIONS AND IRAQ HEATING UP, THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION HAS
FOCUSED ON WAYS TO ADDRESS THE IMMEDIATE CRISIS.
IN A RECENT TELEVISION INTERVIEW, U-S SECRETARY OF STATE
MADELEINE ALBRIGHT URGED BAGHDAD TO DROP ITS BAN ON U-S
PARTICIPATION IN INTERNATIONAL ARMS INSPECTIONS IN IRAQ. AND,
SHE EMPHASIZED INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION IN REINING IN THE
RECALCITRANT IRAQI LEADER.
// ACT ONE ALBRIGHT //
THIS IS SADDAM HUSSEIN AGAINST THE UNITED NATIONS.
THEREFORE, IT IS SADDAM HUSSEIN AGAINST THE WORLD. AND,
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS MADE ITS VIEWS VERY
CLEAR THAT HE MUST COMPLY. I AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE
ON WHAT FURTHER ACTION WE MIGHT TAKE. BUT THE ISSUE
HERE IS THAT WE ARE VERY CLEAR THAT HE MUST COMPLY AND
THE OTHER COUNTRIES AGREE WITH US.
// END ACT //
BUT LURKING BEHIND IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IS A QUESTION THAT U-S
POLICYMAKERS HAVE SO FAR CAREFULLY AVOIDED -- AT LEAST IN PUBLIC.
THAT IS HOW TO DEAL WITH IRAQ IN THE LONG TERM NOW THAT BAGHDAD
HAS REPEATEDLY DEMONSTRATED ITS DEFIANCE OF THE INTERNATIONAL
RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE GULF WAR.
IN THE PAST, THE UNITED STATES HAS RESPONDED TO SUCH VIOLATIONS
WITH LIMITED STRIKES ON IRAQI MILITARY TARGETS. BUT SENATE
REPUBLICAN MAJORITY LEADER TRENT LOTT RECENTLY QUALIFIED SUCH
RESPONSES AS SLAPS ON THE WRIST AND SUGGESTED THE ADMINISTRATION
COME UP WITH SOMETHING MORE MEANINGFUL.
BUT AT THE MOMENT, THERE APPEARS TO BE NO CONSENSUS IN
WASHINGTON ABOUT WHAT THIS NEW IRAQ POLICY SHOULD BE. ONE IDEA
WAS FLOATED RECENTLY IN THE WASHINGTON POST NEWSPAPER BY ZALMAY
KHALILZAD AND PAUL WOLFOWITZ, BOTH SENIOR OFFICIALS IN THE BUSH
ADMINISTRATION. THEY SUGGESTED CASTING ASIDE DIPLOMATIC NICETIES
AND MAKING A CONCERTED EFFORT TO TOPPLE SADDAM HUSSEIN. MR.
KHALILZAD, WHO IS A POLITICAL RESEARCHER AT RAND CORPORATION,
EXPLAINS.
// ACT TWO KHALILZAD //
FIRST, IT WOULD HAVE TO BE IN THE CONTEXT OF A POLITICAL
STRATEGY THAT SEEKS TO RE-ENERGIZE AND REVITALIZE THE
IRAQI OPPOSITION, WHICH HAS BEEN WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
IN THE COURSE OF THE LAST TWO TO THREE YEARS. TWO, WE
NEED TO ENCOURAGE THAT OPPOSITION TO FORM A
GOVERNMENT-IN-EXILE. THIRD, WE NEED TO MAKE SOME OF THE
FROZEN IRAQI ASSETS AVAILABLE TO THAT
GOVERNMENT-IN-EXILE.
// END ACT //
OTHER EXPERTS, HOWEVER, QUESTION THIS APPROACH. THEY SAY THE U-N
GULF WAR RESOLUTIONS CALL FOR DISMANTLING IRAQ'S WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION, NOT OVERTHROWING ITS GOVERNMENT. THEY SAYS IF
WASHINGTON GOES BEYOND THIS MANDATE, IT WOULD RISK ISOLATING
ITSELF IN THE U-N SECURITY COUNCIL AND DAMAGING ITS RELATIONS
WITH THE ARAB WORLD.
BUT MR. KHALILZAD REJECTS SUCH CONCERNS, SAYING A MORE AGGRESSIVE
U-S POSTURE TOWARD SADDAM HUSSEIN WOULD BE WELCOME IN THE MIDDLE
EAST.
// ACT THREE KHALILZAD //
I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE IN THE MIDDLE EAST WOULD SUPPORT
A STRATEGY THAT ALLOWS IRAQ TO RETURN TO THE ARAB AND
GLOBAL FAMILY OF NATIONS. I THINK THE DISSATISFACTION
IN THE ARAB WORLD WITH THE CURRENT APPROACH IS BASED ON
THE FACT THAT THE IRAQIS ARE SUFFERING BECAUSE OF
SANCTIONS.
// END ACT //
HOWEVER, A TOP MIDDLE EAST EXPERT AT WASHINGTON'S CENTER FOR
STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, ANTHONY CORDESMAN, SAYS
PLANS TO TOPPLE SADDAM HUSSEIN MAY BE UNREALISTIC.
// ACT FOUR CORDESMAN //
I THINK THAT IT IS AS DANGEROUS TO OVERREACT AS IT IS TO
UNDERREACT. THE UNITED STATES CAN SOMETIMES AID
OPPOSITION MOVEMENTS. BUT THE FACT IS THAT THE KURDISH
OPPOSITION (IN IRAQ) IS HOPELESSLY DIVIDED AND ALMOST
COMPLETELY SELF-DESTRUCTIVE. THERE IS NO FACTION TO
BACK. THE VARIOUS OPPOSITION MOVEMENTS, WHICH CLAIMED
TO HAVE BROAD REPRESENTATION INSIDE IRAQ, NEVER HAD THAT
SUPPORT AND, IN MANY WAYS, ARE PROBABLY NEVER LIKELY TO
GET IT.
// END ACT //
MR. CORDESMAN SAYS THIS LACK OF A VIABLE OPPOSITION IS THE MAIN
REASON WHY THE UNITED STATES SHOULD STICK TO THE CURRENT
STRATEGY. THAT IS, TO CURBING IRAQ'S MILITARY OPTIONS THROUGH
INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS.
BUT WITH PRESIDENT CLINTON SAYING NOTHING IS RULED IN OR OUT AT
THE MOMENT, EXPERTS SAY IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT WHICH POINT
OF VIEW WILL PREVAIL IN WASHINGTON AT THE END OF THE DAY.
(SIGNED)
NEB/MAX/EH
11-Nov-97 1:26 PM EST (1826 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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