DATE= 11/18/97
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-38114
TITLE=IRAQ AND IRAN
BYLINE=FRANK RONALDS
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: AS TENSIONS AGAIN RISE IN THE GULF REGION, OBSERVERS ARE
QUESTIONING THE IMPACT ON IRAN OF POSSIBLE U-S MILITARY ACTION
AGAINST IRAQ. IN EXAMINING THAT QUESTION, V-O-A'S FRANK RONALDS
ALSO ASKS WHETHER IT MAKE SENSE TO ASK RUSSIAN HELP TO MEDIATE IN
BAGHDAD, WHILE MOSCOW IS REPORTEDLY HELPING TEHRAN WITH MISSILE
TECHNOLOGY.
TEXT: RICHARD PIPES SAYS IT IS IRONIC RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER
YEVGENY PRIMAKOV HAS BEEN ASKED TO PUT PRESSURE ON SADDAM
HUSSEIN, IN LIGHT OF RUSSIA'S WIDENING ECONOMIC TIES WITH IRAN
AND EVIDENCE MOSCOW IS SUPPLYING IRAN WITH MISSILE BUILDING
TECHNOLOGY. BUT HE SAYS, RUSSIA IS THREATENED BY THE IRAQI
DICTATOR'S EFFORTS TO HIDE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, JUST AS
MANY OTHER COUNTRIES ARE.
HARVARD UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR OF RUSSIAN HISTORY RICHARD PIPES HAS
ALSO SERVED ON THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL IN THE WHITE HOUSE
AND IS A SPECIALIST ON INTELLIGENCE MATTERS.
// IST PIPES ACT //
IT SEEMS TO ME THAT YOU ALWAYS HAVE TO DEAL WITH FIRST
THINGS FIRST. AND TO ME, THE FIRST AND FOREMOST THING
IS THE MORTAL DANGER WHICH IS PRESENTED BY SADDAM
HUSSEIN'S CLANDESTINE PROGRAM WHICH CONCENTRATES ON
NUCLEAR WEAPONS, ON CHEMICAL WARFARE AND ON BIOLOGICAL
WARFARE. THIS PRESENTS A MORTAL DANGER TO MANY
COUNTRIES AND I THINK THIS HAS TO BE DEALT WITH PROMPTLY
AND DECISIVELY. THESE STOCKPILES AND RESEARCH LABS AND
SO ON SHOULD BE DESTROYED, NO MATTER WHAT THE POLITICAL
OR DIPLOMATIC CONSEQUENCES ARE. AS FAR AS IRAN IS
CONCERNED, THIS IS A MORE LONG TERM PROBLEM. AND I
THINK WE ALSO SHOULD PUT PRESSURE ON RUSSIA BUT I WOULD
NOT CONSIDER IT ON THE SAME LEVEL OF DANGER AS THAT
PRESENTED BY IRAQ.
// END ACT //
ON THE OTHER HAND, PROFESSOR PIPES SAYS THE UNITED NATIONS AND
ESPECIALLY THE UNITED STATES, SHOULD NOT ACCEPT A COMPROMISE
WHICH DOES NOT ASSURE THE DESTRUCTION OF THESE WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION. HE SAYS IT IS NOT ENOUGH FOR BAGHDAD SIMPLY TO
ACCEPT THE TIGHTENED SANCTIONS RECENTLY VOTED BY THE U-N SECURITY
COUNCIL.
// 2ND PIPES ACT //
NOT ONLY ACCEPT THE TIGHTENED SANCTIONS, BUT ACCEPT THE
INSPECTION TEAMS, INCLUDING THE AMERICAN REPRESENTATIVES
ON IT. AND NOT PREVENT THEM FROM SEEING VARIOUS SITES
WHICH IT IS THEIR DUTY TO SEE. THEY HAVE TO REALLY OPEN
UP, THE WAY THAT HAVE NOT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS.
IN A VARIETY OF WAYS THEY WERE HARASSING THE INSPECTORS
AND CLOSING SITES OR REMOVING ITEMS FROM THE SITES.
THIS IS SCANDALOUS. THIS SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED. THIS
IS A DEADLY GAMES. WE ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT NATIONAL
PRESTIGE. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT WEAPONS THAT ARE CAPABLE
OF DESTROYING HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS, IF NOT MILLIONS OF
HUMAN BEINGS. NEVER MIND WHAT THE CONSEQUENCES ARE, I
THINK THEY SHOULD COMPLY 100-PERCENT.
// END ACT //
PROFESSOR PIPES SAYS IF BAGHDAD DOES NOT COMPLY COMPLETELY, THE
UNITED STATES SHOULD USE WHATEVER POWER IT REQUIRES TO DESTROY
THE SITES, AND ALSO TO HIT SADDAM HUSSEIN'S REPUBLICAN GUARDS,
WHO PROTECT THE SITES AS WELL AS THE REGIME.
TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION IRAN'S EIGHT-YEAR-LONG WAR WITH IRAQ,
ENDING IN 1988, MIGHT A WEAKENED IRAQ INVITE AGGRESSION FROM
TEHERAN? PROFESSOR PIPES THINKS NOT.
// 3RD PIPES ACT //
EXPERIENCE INDICATES THAT IF YOU ACT VERY VIGOROUSLY IN
DEFENSE OF A JUST CAUSE, THIS IS A VERY POWERFUL
INFLUENCE ON EVERYBODY ELSE WHO MAY WANT TO TAKE A
DANGEROUS COURSE OF ACTION. AND I SHOULD THINK THAT IF
THIS WERE DONE IN REGARDS TO IRAQ, IRAN WOULD TAKE HEED.
IN RUSSIA, I DO NOT THINK THIS WOULD BE A VERY MAJOR
ISSUE. IT IS NOT SOMETHING THAT CONCERNS THEM DIRECTLY.
IT IS NOT AN ISSUE THAT AGITATES PUBLIC OPINION. SO I
DO NOT THINK THERE IS ANY DANGER OF A SPLIT WITH RUSSIA
ON THIS.
// END ACT //
THE RUSSIAN DUMA, THE LOWER HOUSE OF PARLIAMENT, HAS VOTED
AGAINST USING MILITARY FORCE TO COMPEL SADDAM HUSSEIN TO COMPLY
WITH U-N SANCTIONS. BUT PROFESSOR PIPES THINKS THE DUMA VOTE
SHOULD BE IGNORED IF THE IRAQI DICTATOR DOES NOT COMPLY FULLY.
(SIGNED)
NEB/RAE
18-Nov-97 11:26 AM EST (1626 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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