Voice of America 3/5/97
DEBATING DUAL CONTAINMENT
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
INTRO: U-S DUAL CONTAINMENT OF IRAN AND IRAQ WAS DEBATED AT A MEETING ON CAPITOL HILL THIS WEEK (WED.). V-O-A'S ED WARNER ATTENDED AND HAS THIS REPORT.
TEXT: THE U-S POLICY OF PUTTING SEVERE ECONOMIC PRESSURE ON IRAN AND IRAQ WAS SHARPLY QUESTIONED AT A DISCUSSION HELD BY THE MIDDLE EAST POLICY COUNCIL IN WASHINGTON THIS WEEK. THE POLICY WAS DEFENDED BY ROBERT DEUTSCH, WHO OVERSEES NORTHERN GULF AFFAIRS FOR THE U-S STATE DEPARTMENT. HE SAID AS LONG AS THE TWO COUNTRIES DO NOT MODIFY THEIR BEHAVIOUR ON A VARIETY OF ISSUES, THE UNITED STATES MUST CONTINUE TO APPLY PRESSURE:
WITH IRAQI AMBITIONS UNDIMINISHED AND SADDAM CONTINUING TO RULE IN BAGHDAD, RUTHLESSLY AND RESILIENTLY MAINTAINING POWER DESPITE COUP ATTEMPTS AND A SHRINKING FAMILY SUPPORT, IT IS CLEAR THAT THE ONLY FEASIBLE COURSE FOR THE UNITED STATES AND OTHER RESPONSIBLE NATIONS IS TO KEEP THE BOX AROUND BAGHDAD AS TIGHT AS POSSIBLE. WHILE EUROPE HOPES TO PERSUADE TEHRAN THROUGH A DIALOGUE THAT SOME DESCRIBE AS "CRITICAL" AND OTHERS CHARACTERIZE AS "OBSEQUIOUS," THE UNITED STATES HAS CHOSEN TO SEND A CLEAR AND UNAMBIGUOUS MESSAGE BY EMBARGOING TRADE AND INVESTMENT WITH IRAN AND SEEKING TO EXTRACT AN ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL COST FOR IRAN'S BEHAVIOUR.
HERVE MAGRO, FRENCH AMBASSADOR TO THE UNITED STATES, AGREED ON THE DANGERS POSED BY IRAN AND IRAQ, BUT NOT WITH THE U-S RESPONSE TO THEM:
WE DO NOT BELIEVE IN UNILATERAL EMBARGOES, AND THERE IS NO PROOF THAT THEY CAN WORK TO HELP US ACHIEVE OUR PRIMARY GOAL, WHICH IS TO CHANGE THE BEHAVIOUR OF THOSE REGIMES. IT IS USUALLY NOT THE REGIME THAT IS PAYING THE PRICE FOR THIS KIND OF POLICY, BUT THE POPULATION.
AMBASSADOR MAGRO SAID THE MIDDLE EAST IS NOW THE MOST MILITARIZED REGION ON EARTH. IT IS TIME FOR MORE DIPLOMACY.
NO SIGN OF THAT, SAID WILIAM RUGH, A FORMER U-S AMBASSADOR TO THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES AND NOW PRESIDENT OF "AMIDEAST," AN EDUCATIONAL AND TRAINING SERVICE:
THE U-S POLICY TOWARD THE GULF HAS CHANGED OVER THE YEARS SINCE 1990-91, IN THE SENSE THAT IT HAS ESCALATED THE CONTAINMENT, HAS TIGHTENED THE ECONOMIC MEASURES WITHOUT SUCCEEDING IN ACHIEVING ITS POLITICAL OBJECTIVE. TIME HAS PASSED, AND SADDAM HUSSEIN, CONTRARY TO EXPECTATIONS, HAS NOT LEFT THE SCENE. HE HAS NOT CHANGED HIS BASIC ATTITUDE TOWARD COMPLIANCE WITH THE U-N RESOLUTIONS.
AMBASSADOR RUGH SAID GROWING OPPOSITION IN EUROPE AND THE MIDDLE EAST WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THE CONTAINMENT POLICY. HE URGED A DIFFERENT APPROACH. SINCE SADDAM HUSSEIN IS THE MAJOR OBSTACLE TO CHANGE, HIS LIEUTENANTS SHOULD BE ENCOURAGED TO BRING HIM DOWN. THAT WOULD MEAN GRANTING THEM AMNESTY AHEAD OF TIME, SO THEY WOULD NO LONGER HAVE A STAKE IN HIS SURVIVAL.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO TALK TO ENEMIES WITHOUT FORGETTING WHO THEY ARE, SAID ANTHONY CORDESMAN, CO-DIRECTOR OF THE MIDDLE EAST PROGRAM AT THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN WASHINGTON. ISOLATING OR DEMONIZING THEM DOES NOT CHANGE THEM:
I THINK WE HAVE PUSHED THE IDEA OF DUAL CONTAINMENT, FROM A GENERAL POLICY WHICH AT LEAST IN SOME WAYS MADE SENSE, TO SOMETHING THAT SUITS AMERICAN DOMESTIC POLITICAL AGENDAS WITHOUT SUITING THE AMERICAN NATIONAL INTEREST.
MR. CORDESMAN SAID DUAL CONTAINMENT IS ALL STICKS AND NO CARROTS. U-S POLICY SHOULD BE A COMBINATION OF BOTH.
(SIGNED)
NEB/PT
05-Mar-97 5:24 PM EST (2224 UTC)
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