DATE= 11/17/97
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-38110
TITLE=WHAT TO DO ABOUT IRAQ
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRODUCTION: THE ATTACK ON THE TOURIST BUS IN UPPER EGYPT ADDS
TO THE UNREST IN THE MIDDLE EAST, ALREADY SHAKEN OVER THE
STANDOFF IN IRAQ ON U-N INSPECTIONS OF ITS PRESUMED WEAPONS OF
MASS DESTRUCTION. OBSERVERS SAY MORE VIOLENCE CAN PROBABLY BE
EXPECTED IN REACTION TO SADDAM HUSSEIN'S DEFIANCE AND THE STALLED
PEACE PROCESS. VOA'S ED WARNER ASKED SOME VETERAN ANALYSTS WHAT
SHOULD BE DONE ABOUT IRAQ AND THE MIDDLE EAST IN GENERAL.
TEXT: THERE IS WRIGGLE ROOM AT THE EDGES. THAT IS HOW STEVE
YETIV, AUTHOR OF TWO BOOKS ON THE UNITED STATES IN THE PERSIAN
GULF, DESCRIBES SADDAM HUSSEIN'S LATEST MANEUVER OVER THE U-N
INSPECTIONS OF HIS WEAPONRY.
MR. YETIV, A POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR AT OLD DOMINION
UNIVERSITY IN VIRGINIA, SAYS THE UNITED STATES CANNOT ACCEPT THE
IRAQI LEADER'S LATEST PROPOSAL, BUT IT SUGGESTS HE IS LOOKING FOR
A WAY OUT OF THE CRISIS:
// YETIV ACT //
IT SEEMS TO ME THAT THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES
CANNOT ACCOMMODATE SADDAM INSOFAR AS ACCEPTING THE
RECENT PROPOSAL FOR SADDAM TO RECONFIGURE THE U-N
INSPECTIONS TEAM. ESSENTIALLY WHAT THE UNITED STATES IN
MY VIEW NEEDS TO DO IS TO CONTINUE TO COUPLE THE
DIPLOMATIC APPROACH WITH THE MILITARY APPROACH, TO STAND
FIRM AGAINST SADDAM BUT GIVE HIM SOME POTENTIAL ROOM TO
STAND DOWN FROM THE CRISIS.
// END ACT //
QUOTING THE PRUSSIAN STRATEGIST CLAUSEWITZ, PROFESSOR YETIV SAYS
WAR IS SOMETIMES A CONTINUATION OF DIPLOMACY BY OTHER MEANS.
BUT MICHAEL HUDSON, PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AT
GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY, NOTES ARAB COUNTRIES AND MOST OTHER
NATIONS HAVE ARGUED AGAINST THE USE OF FORCE IN THIS SITUATION:
// HUDSON ACT //
TO DO SO WOULD MEAN RUNNING SQUARELY AGAINST THE VIEWS
OF THE GOVERNMENTS WE ARE SUPPOSEDLY PROTECTING, AND IT
WOULD CERTAINLY INFLAME ARAB AND ISLAMIC OPINION AGAINST
THE UNITED STATES, AGAINST AMERICAN INTERESTS AND
PROBABLY AGAINST AMERICANS IN THE MIDDLE EAST.
// END ACT //
PROFESSOR YETIV SAYS IN PRIVATE, ARAB LEADERS ARE NOT SO OPPOSED
TO U-S ACTION AGAINST SADDAM. THEY JUST WANT TO MAKE SURE THE
UNITED STATES WILL SEE IT THROUGH AND NOT LEAVE THEM AT THE MERCY
OF THE IRAQI LEADER.
HE ADDS THE UNITED STATES HAS A DILEMMA. THE ECONOMIC SANCTIONS
ON IRAQ ARE NOT REALLY HURTING SADDAM, ONLY HIS PEOPLE. BUT TO
REMOVE THEM WOULD SEND A SIGNAL OF U-S WEAKNESS.
THERE HAS BEEN A SUGGESTION THE UNITED STATES WOULD PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF FROM THE SANCTIONS IF IRAQ PERMITS INSPECTIONS TO RESUME.
PROFESSSOR HUDSON THINKS THAT IS A GOOD IDEA:
// HUDSON ACT //
THE SANCTIONS CERTAINLY HAVE BEEN A HUMANITARIAN
DISASTER AND I THINK A MORAL STAIN ON AMERICAN POLICY IF
IT IS TRUE, AS INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS HAVE
SUGGESTED, THAT MAYBE UP TO FOUR THOUSAND IRAQI
CHIILDREN ARE DYING EVERY MONTH FROM MALNUTRITION AND
DISEASE WHICH ARE RELATED TO THE SANCTIONS.
// END ACT //
PROFESSOR HUDSON SUGGESTS OFFERING TO LIFT THE SANCTIONS BY A
CERTAIN DATE IF IRAQ FULLY COMPLIES WITH THE U-N INSPECTIONS.
//OPT// ASSAD HOMAYOUN, AN IRANIAN OPPOSITION LEADER IN THE
UNITED STATES, SAYS TEHRAN COULD ADD TO THE PRESSURE ON IRAQ, IF
IT CHOSE TO MAKE A DRAMATIC CHANGE OF POLICY IN ITS OWN BEST
INTEREST:
// HOMAYOUN ACT //
I BELIEVE IRAN SHOULD COME TO THE RIGHT SIDE OF HISTORY.
IRAN MUST USE THIS OPPORTUNITY AND SIDE WITH THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO BRING DOWN SADDAM AND
TERMINATE HIS THREAT TO THE REGION AND TO IRAN. IT WILL
HELP PEACE IMMENSELY, RESTORE THE RESPECT AND CREDIBILTY
OF IRAN WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.
// END ACT & OPT //
BUT PROFESSOR YETIV THINKS THE MOOD IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS TURNING
AGAINST THE UNITED STATES AND THE WEST, AS DEMONSTRATED BY THE
ATTACK ON THE TOURST BUS IN UPPER EGYPT:
// YETIV ACT //
WHEN YOU HAVE DOMESTIC ECONOMIC WEAKNESS AND
UNEMPLOYMENT, AND YOU COUPLE IT WITH THE FEELING THAT
THE CURRENT ISRAELI GOVERNMENT IS NOT MOVING AHEAD ON
PEACE AND QUITE THE CONTRARY, IS NOT INTERESTED IN THAT,
AND YOU ADD THIS NOTION OF THE UNITED STATES MOVING
FORCES INTO THE REGION WHERE IT MAY ATTACK AND HIT THE
IRAQI PEOPLE, I THINK ALL THOSE THINGS TOGETHER ARE
PRODUCING A SITUATION WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE OF THESE
KINDS OF INCIDENTS.
// END ACT //
PROFESSOR YETIV SAYS SADDAM IS SURELY A SURVIVOR BUT A
CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED ONE WHO HAS LOST MUCH OF HIS MILITARY
STRENGTH AND HAS FACED SERIOUS COUP ATTEMPTS. THE PROBLEM IS WHO
WOULD SUCCEED HIM? AND WOULD A SUCCESSOR BE ABLE TO KEEP A
FRAGMENTED IRAQ TOGETHER, A GOAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY?
IF THERE IS ONE THING SADDAM HAS LEARNED FROM ALL HIS MISTAKES,
SAYS PROFESSOR YETIV, IT IS HOW TO HANG ON TO POWER. (SIGNED)
NEB/EW/WFR
17-Nov-97 7:25 PM EST (0025 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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