ACCESSION NUMBER:00000
FILE ID:97012701.NNE
DATE:01/27/97
TITLE:27-01-97 MUCH REMAINS UNKNOWN OF IRAQI WEAPONS PROGRAMS, SPECIALIST SAYS
TEXT:
(Former UNSCOM monitor reviews lessons learned) (440)
By Rick Marshall
USIA Staff Writer
Washington -- Despite the destruction of considerable Iraqi weaponry
and materials over the past six years, much remains unknown about
Iraq's current chemical, biological and missile programs, David Kay, a
former member of the United Nations Special Commission on Iraq
(UNSCOM), told a gathering at the Middle East Institute January 27.
Since it was established after the Gulf War by the U.N. Security
Council, UNSCOM has carried out more than 600 inspections and
discovered a far more sophisticated nuclear, biological and chemical
(NBC) weapons capability in Iraq than virtually anyone had expected,
Kay observed.
At the same time, Baghdad has issued more than 20 "full and final
declarations" about its weapons programs. None of them, Kay noted, can
be considered either full or final. For example, there is no evidence
to support Iraqi claims that it has destroyed its anthrax stocks.
Similarly, he added, UNSCOM believes Iraq may still be hiding as many
as two dozen SCUD missiles.
Looking back on the years immediately preceding the Iraqi invasion of
Kuwait, Kay faulted the West for underestimating the sophistication of
Iraq's technical and scientific base and for looking the other way
when Baghdad used chemical weapons on Iranian soldiers during the
Iran-Iraq War.
Following the Gulf War, however, UNSCOM was given "unprecedented
rights" to conduct inspections within Iraq. Working directly with the
Security Council made it possible to avoid the complications of
working with the U.N. Secretary General's office, and in Rolf Ekeus,
UNSCOM found a "diplomat in the true sense of the word," Kay said of
the Swede who has led the Commission since its creation.
Kay, who is now a vice president at Science Applications International
Corp., also praised Thomas Pickering, then the U.S. chief
representative at the U.N., for his "superb" work in forging a
consensus in the Security Council for imposing a sanctions regime on
Iraq.
Still, despite the uncertainty about Saddam Hussein's intentions and
Iraq's continuing NBC capabilities, Kay expressed doubt that sanctions
will remain on Iraq for more than a few years. UNSCOM's political
support "is beginning to recede," he noted, and it is likely to prove
exceedingly difficult to monitor Iraq effectively once oil revenues
begin to flow into the country again.
"There is no alternative today to a strong U.S. policy," Kay
concluded, pointing to the uneasy rivalries among the states which
border the Gulf and the near certainty that Iraq has maintained a
"substantial program" of missiles and biological missile weapons.
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