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With Tensions High And Trust Low, Iran And The US Set To Meet In Oman

By Kian Sharifi April 12, 2025

Iran has never been closer to developing a nuclear weapon. US pressure on the Islamic republic has rarely been more intense.

With tensions high and trust scarce, Iranian and American negotiators are set to meet in Oman on April 12 in a bid to resolve a deepening nuclear crisis.

The discussions come amid escalating threats from Washington, including President Donald Trump's warning on April 9 that that "if necessary," the United States "absolutely" would use military force against Iran -- with Israel poised to play a leading role.

Iran's response has been defiant, signaling the high stakes for both nations and the broader region when the delegations meet.

"In earnest & with candid vigilance we are giving diplomacy a genuine chance.
U.S. should value this decision formed despite their prevailing confrontational hoopla," Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said in a post on X on April 11.

The format of the meeting has become a point of contention, with the United States insisting the talks will be direct and Iran claiming otherwise.

Format aside, the road to these talks has been long and uncertain.

How Did We Get Here?

The talks mark another chapter in the fraught relationship between Iran and the United States, which has been defined by cycles of diplomacy and confrontation.

The 2015 nuclear deal -- formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) -- once offered hope for detente, but Washington's withdrawal in 2018 during Trump's first term triggered a spiral of sanctions and uranium enrichment by Tehran.

European powers tried to salvage the JCPOA by launching what they called the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX), which was meant to facilitate non-dollar transactions with Iran to avoid violating US sanctions and dissuade Iran from scaling back its commitments.

In practice, only one transaction was made through the mechanism, and it was eventually scrapped in 2023.

Iran's economy, which had been boosted by the JCPOA, took a big hit as Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign bit and significantly reduced Tehran's oil sales.

Shortly after Joe Biden succeeded Trump in the White House in 2021, Iran and the United States began holding a series of indirect talks to revive the nuclear deal. A draft agreement was prepared by the European Union, which serves as the coordinator of the JCPOA, but it was never signed.

Talks stalled in 2022 and remained frozen -- until now.

What's At Stake?

Trump has been clear about what he wants: Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. But it remains unclear whether he wants to restrict Iran's nuclear activities or completely dismantle it.

Iran is willing to offer assurances that it's not looking to acquire a bomb but has rejected the idea of entirely scrapping its nuclear program.

Despite trying to project confidence and claiming it can neutralize US sanctions, Tehran desperately needs a deal.

Iran's economy is arguably in the worst shape it has ever been, with the national currency hitting new lows against the dollar on an almost daily basis. People's purchasing power continues to dwindle and blackouts have become a fixture of summer and winter despite Iran's global status as an energy-rich nation.

For the United States, preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is a top priority.

Iran is enriching uranium at 60 percent purity, which is widely regarded as near-weapons grade. It has also accumulated enough uranium to build several bombs, should it choose to do so.

Tehran insists its nuclear program is peaceful and has never pursued weaponization. However, with the Trump administration continuing to raise the possibility of military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities, a growing number of Iranian officials have teased that Tehran would develop nukes if cornered.

Estimates suggest Iran could enrich sufficient uranium for a single bomb in less than a week and enough for several bombs within a month.

Ahead of the talks in Oman, Washington has sought to up the pressure even further. On April 9, the US Treasury announced sanctions on five entities and one person based in Iran for their support of Iran's nuclear program, including the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI).

Mohammed Ghaedi, a lecturer at George Washington University's department of political science, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that the new sanctions are unlikely to have much of an impact on Iran's nuclear program since they target AEOI's assets in the United States, which aren't many.

The new sanctions, he argued, mostly serve to strengthen the United States' leverage against Iran during negotiations.

On April 9, Trump again warned that in the absence of a deal with Iran, the United States would resort to military action to neutralize Tehran's nuclear program.

"Israel will obviously be very much involved in that. They'll be the leader of that," he said.

Ali Shamkhani, a top aide to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, replied that continued threats of military confrontation would compel Iran to expel UN inspectors and "transfer enriched uranium to secure sites."

Who Are The Negotiators?

The Iranian negotiating team is led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, a career diplomat who has served as both a senior and lead nuclear negotiator. He was heavily involved in the JCPOA talks and led indirect negotiations with the United States to revive it.

Steve Witkoff, Trump's Middle East envoy, will serve as Washington's chief nuclear negotiator. A billionaire real estate investor, Witkoff lacks diplomatic experience but has taken on a central role in high-stakes negotiations since joining Trump's team.

On April 11 Witkoff made a surprise stop in Russia, a close ally of Iran, while en route to Oman. He met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg for talks that state news agencies later said lasted more than four hours.

"The theme of the meeting -- aspects of a Ukrainian settlement," the Kremlin said in a statement after the meeting concluded. Witkoff also met with Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund.

"[Witkoff] is managing a lot of different files and may be out of his depth in technical discussions that are likely to dominate the Oman meetings," Gregory Brew, senior Iran analyst at the New York-based Eurasia Group, told RFE/RL.

"Araqchi is a skilled diplomat with years of experience. Unless Witkoff is backed up by a strong staff with expertise, it may complicate discussions," he added.

Oman's discreet diplomacy has often bridged gaps between the two sides, including back-channel negotiations that led to the JCPOA. Now, Muscat is poised to host discussions once more, with both sides wary but aware of the risks of failure.

Source: https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-united-states-nuclear- talks-trump/33381410.html

Copyright (c) 2025. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.