• Military

• WMD Menu                           

• Introduction
• Systems
• Facilities
• Agencies
• Operations
• Countries
• Hot Documents
• News
• Reports
• Policy
• Budget
• Congress
• Links

• Intelligence
• Homeland Security
• Space

Amid looming snapback, Iran is no stranger to sanctions

Iran Press TV

Sunday, 03 August 2025 11:43 AM

As the specter of the snapback mechanism in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) threatens to reimpose United Nations sanctions on Iran, the country stands at a critical juncture.

Yet, a comprehensive economic assessment reveals that Iran's economy has, over more than a decade of unilateral US and multilateral sanctions, developed a remarkable resilience—what can be termed an "immunization" against the paralyzing effects of sanctions.

This resilience, underpinned by structural reforms, diversification, regional economic integration, and strategic policy shifts, significantly mitigates the potential adverse impacts of renewed sanction threats.

Between 2010 and 2020, Iran faced an intensification of sanctions, notably by the United States, the European Union, and the United Nations Security Council.

Key among these were restrictions on Iran's oil exports, financial transactions via SWIFT, and limitations targeting Iran's central bank and major economic players.

These measures severely disrupted Iran's external trade, financial flows, and access to global capital markets, causing sharp contractions in GDP, inflation surges, and exchange rate volatility.

However, the lessons from this difficult decade have been profound. Iran's economy has endured repeated sanctions cycles and has adapted, evolving from acute vulnerability to relative robustness.

This "sanction immunity" stems partly from the fact that the most damaging unilateral US sanctions have never been fully lifted. As a result, Iran's economy has been forced to operate under persistent pressure, accelerating domestic reforms and diversification strategies.

One of the most significant aspects of Iran's resilience is the deliberate shift towards reducing dependency on volatile oil revenues.

While oil revenues once accounted for a dominant share of government income and foreign exchange earnings, sanctions accelerated efforts to develop a non-oil economy.

By expanding non-oil exports—from petrochemicals to agriculture, manufacturing, and technology sectors—Iran has increased the diversity and sustainability of its export basket.

Non-oil exports have reportedly rebounded to above $50 billion in recent years, a testament to successful diversification.

Moreover, Iran has enhanced its financial infrastructure to withstand external pressures.

For instance, when cut off from traditional international banking and insurance systems, Iran developed domestic capabilities such as establishing its own shipping insurance companies.

Such measures shield critical trade channels from disruption. Additionally, efforts to tighten banking oversight and control liquidity growth have improved macroeconomic stability, reducing inflationary pressures that once exacerbated sanctions impacts.

Tax reforms, including doubling the number of tax filers and implementing capital gains taxes, have strengthened domestic revenue mobilization. This reduces Iran's reliance on uncertain external inflows and fosters fiscal stability.

Iran's economic strategy has increasingly emphasized regional integration and currency diversification, responding pragmatically to sanctions-imposed limitations on dollar transactions.

Membership in regional economic blocs such as the Eurasian Economic Union and active engagement in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS alliance reflects a policy pivot toward regional partnerships and multilateralism beyond Western-led institutions.

Trade with neighboring countries and emerging partners is now largely conducted through bilateral agreements that circumvent dollar dependency, using local currencies or alternative payment systems.

This "de-dollarization" shields Iran from dollar-centric sanctions and provides greater insulation against global financial restrictions.

China's rising role as a trading partner and supporter of alternative financial architectures—such as trade in yuan surpassing dollar volumes—further consolidates Iran's access to vital export markets and capital.

The strengthening of BRICS as a counterbalance to US-dominated global finance offers Iran new avenues for economic collaboration and resilience.

Global geopolitics have shifted dramatically since the early 2010s. The war in Ukraine and realignments among major powers have weakened Western consensus on sanction enforcement.

Russia's pivot away from Europe, China's opposition to US economic dominance, and increased multipolar cooperation dilute the effectiveness of sanctions regimes.

Unlike earlier years, when the US enjoyed near-universal compliance with sanctions on Iran, the current geopolitical landscape sees reduced sanction enforcement by key global actors, allowing Iran more freedom in maintaining trade flows.

This geopolitical context significantly lessens the potential disruptive effect of any snapback measures.

Despite sanctions, Iran's oil exports have rebounded from lows below one million barrels per day to an estimated 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels per day, according to secondary sources.

This recovery illustrates Iran's ability to circumvent restrictions through diversified customers, alternative shipping routes, and regional partnerships.

Similarly, non-oil exports have exceeded previous peaks, demonstrating robust economic activity despite ongoing sanctions. This resilience contradicts assumptions that snapback will inflict devastating shocks comparable to those experienced a decade ago.

That said ongoing efforts to reduce dependency on external markets vulnerable to political pressures—through deepening regional trade, investing in domestic production capacities, and pursuing technological innovation—remain critical.

In short, while the looming snapback of UN sanctions presents political and economic challenges, Iran's economy today is fundamentally different from that of the early 2010s.

Years of persistent US unilateral sanctions, regional integration, currency diversification, and domestic reforms have effectively "vaccinated" Iran's economy against shocks that once inflicted severe damage.