Mousavi 'has upper hand' in Iranian elections - U.S. expert
15:5111/06/2009 MOSCOW, June 11 (RIA Novosti) - Iran's presidential election will be close, but the race favors the incumbent's main opponent, a Washington-based expert on Iranian issues said on Thursday.
Former prime minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi "has the upper hand," the head of the Russia and CIS team at Washington-based Eurasia Group and an analyst on Iranian issues, Cliff Kupchan told RIA Novosti ahead of Friday's election.
Current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has used the poverty issue to attract votes while Mousavi, 67, has focused on corruption and the economy. He has openly criticized Ahmadinejad, called him a "liar" and accused him of misappropriating some $1 billion in oil revenues.
"Mousavi's 'wave' is coming mainly from young voters, who comprise roughly 45% of the electorate. The vote is being delivered to Mousavi in large part by former President Khatami, who retains his extraordinary popularity with young voters," Kupchan said.
The analyst's view is in sharp contrast with a recent poll of approximately 1,000 Iranians conducted by the Washington-based public policy institutes Terror Free Tomorrow and the New American Foundation
The survey showed 34% of Iranian voters supported Ahmadinejad, 14% backed Mousavi, and 27% were undecided.
Two other candidates, Mehdi Karroubi and Mohsen Rezaei, are also on Friday's ballot, but barely registered in the poll.
The winning candidate requires 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff against his closest rival.
Ariel Cohen, a senior research fellow for Washington-based Heritage Foundation, said earlier in the week that Mousavi's popularity with young people would not be enough for victory.
"There are millions and millions of people in Iran that are not part of the 21st-century information revolution and these people also vote," Cohen said, adding that according to his sources "Ahmadinejad not only may win, but there may be serious tampering and fraud to ensure his victory."
Kupchan and Cohen both said a Mousavi would improve U.S.-Iran relations.
"He would probably be at least somewhat more flexible" on the Iranian nuclear program, Kupchan said, adding there would be a good chance of a deal on the country's nuclear program, as well as positive changes in Iran's foreign policy, including its policy toward Israel.
When asked about the respective U.S. and Russian stances on Iran's nuclear program, Kupchan said the main difference was on the use of sanctions, which Russia believes will not work and could induce a "belligerent reaction."
According to Kupchan, Washington and Moscow are both comfortable with a "purely civilian Iranian nuclear program," pointing out that the United States did not object very strongly to the Bushehr nuclear power plant, built by Russia in the southeast of the country.
He also said the United States and Russia had similar opinions on the threat posed by Iran's ballistic missile program, advanced enough for the country to recently successfully launch a multi-stage, solid fuel missile. Kupchan said Iran could develop a nuclear weapon "in the not so distant future."
Mousavi has not been active in politics for 20 years, after the position of prime minister was eliminated by constitutional changes in 1989.
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