• Military

• WMD Menu                           

• Introduction
• Systems
• Facilities
• Agencies
• Operations
• Countries
• Hot Documents
• News
• Reports
• Policy
• Budget
• Congress
• Links

• Intelligence
• Homeland Security
• Space

Analysis: Reading the Tea Leaves on Iran

Council on Foreign Relations

November 13, 2007
Author: Greg Bruno

Rhetoric between Washington and Tehran has sounded, at times, like a broken record. With echoes of Iraq and WMD President Bush has warned that a nuclear-armed Iran could threaten global stability and bring about World War III (IHT). Vice President Dick Cheney has been equally bellicose. “We will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” Cheney declared (TIME) in October 2007. That said, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s bombast has given Saddam Hussein a run for his money. The Iranian leader has said Israel should be “wiped off the face of the earth” and has remained defiant in proclaiming his country’s nuclear progression (Reuters).

Amid this war of words, however, are signs of softening relations. On November 9, just two weeks after Washington announced new sanctions against the Revolutionary Guard Corps, U.S. forces released nine Iranian prisoners being held in Iraq, including two accused of membership in the Guards’ elite Quds Force (WashPost). Ryan Crocker, the U.S. ambassador to Baghdad, had been meeting regularly with his Iranian counterpart, Hassan Kazemi-Qoumi, prior to the release (The Telegraph). The Bush administration, too, has reiterated a preference for diplomacy in resolving the nuclear standoff. In November 8 conference call, Rear Admiral Gregory Smith, spokesman for the U.S.military in Iraq, told CFR.org Iran appears to have kept its promise to stop the flow of Iranian made roadside bombs into Iraq.

The diplomatic overtures come at a politically sensitive time for both governments. Members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany, are expected to meet November 19 to consider additional sanctions over Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. The United States and its allies accuse Iran of seeking to develop an atomic weapon, a charge Tehran denies.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2007 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.