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Analysis: Looking Ahead, Bush Eyes Iran

Council on Foreign Relations

September 14, 2007
Prepared by: Greg Bruno

A week of thrust and parry over Iraq culminated in a prime-time September 13 presidential address (IHT) the White House hoped would reframe the war debate, link the U.S. presence to Iran’s growing power, and buy time for U.S. and Iraqi troops to stabilize Iraq. President Bush announced 5,700 troops that comprised part of the “surge” will leave Iraq by December 2007, and promised more of the thirty thousand soldiers dispatched under urgent conditions last spring would cycle home as conditions on the ground improve. Yet he made no mention of a withdrawal of the core force of some 130,000 troops. Some Republican lawmakers, many facing reelection next year, expressed concern (WashPost) over the modest scale of the reduction.

These tactical moves came alongside a new and clearer statement of strategic intent: a vision of an “enduring” U.S. presence in Iraq meant to counter the nuclear and political ambitions of Iran. In four-and-a-half years of war, stated U.S. aims in Iraq have been a moving target (NYT). In 2003, as U.S. forces were unleashing “shock and awe” on Baghdad, the White House was promising to stand down after cleansing Iraq of weapons of mass destruction. The absence of weapons of mass destruction led to a new emphasis on democratizing Iraq and training Iraqi security forces. Iraq’s weak government and factional mayhem brought the surge, and now, with the military’s figures showing violence trending downward, the strategic goal has shifted to containment, both of non-state actors like al-Qaeda and Iraq’s sectarian militias, and of Iranian influence. “If we were to be driven out of Iraq... Iran would benefit from the chaos and would be encouraged in its efforts to gain nuclear weapons and dominate the region,” Bush said. “A free Iraq will counter the destructive ambitions of Iran.”

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2007 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.