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Analysis: Tehran on the Hot Seat

Council on Foreign Relations

Updated: December 26, 2006
Prepared by: Robert McMahon

The story of Iran this year has been of a nation on the rise regionally, with clear influence in Lebanon and Iraq and a growing assertiveness about its right to develop nuclear energy. But there has been a break in the narrative at year’s end. Troubling signals for Tehran have suddenly sprouted up in many directions. Despite a continuing surge in revenues from its energy stocks, Iran’s oil minister acknowledged the country was having difficulty funding oil projects because of what the Financial Times calls “de facto financial sanctions.” At the same time, authorities were confirming gains by reformers in municipal elections and impressive vote totals for “moderate conservatives” like former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in the election for members of the Assembly of Experts, which has the power to select the country’s next Supreme Leader (RFE/RL). Other sour notes for the government include a rising student protest movement (NYT) against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and a UN General Assembly vote censuring its human rights record.

But Tehran’s biggest source of concern, despite declarations to the contrary, is a UN resolution passed unanimously (WashPost) by the UN Security Council on December 23. The resolution sanctions the government for failing to heed its demands to suspend its uranium enrichment program, which a number of Western states believe is cover for a weapons program. It bans the import and export of materials and technology used in uranium enrichment, reprocessing, and ballistic missiles. Even though the European states that drafted the resolution have removed provisions related to a Russian-built light-water reactor and travel bans, there are overtones of the UN sanctions on Iraq in the 1990s that have already chilled international investment in Iran.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.