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Analysis: Two-track Diplomacy on Iran

Council on Foreign Relations

Updated: December 13, 2006
Prepared by: Lionel Beehner

More than three months after Iran defied a UN resolution calling for suspension of its uranium enrichment activities, the UN Security Council appears to be close to taking punitive steps (LAT). A new draft resolution would impose a travel ban and freeze the assets of a dozen top officials in Tehran accused of involvement in its nuclear and ballistic-missile activities as well as soften a ban on missile and technology transfers to Iran. Russia and China have yet to approve the draft but indicate they will endorse it with only a few small fixes and clarifications. Russia’s main concern is that its commercial ties to Tehran not be jeopardized. Moscow refuses to support (USAToday) any resolution that might cut short the completion and fuel supply of a Russian-built light-water reactor at Bushehr or affect a $1 billion sale of anti-aircraft missiles to Tehran. But UN officials say the new draft, less sweeping and punitive than earlier versions, may be ready by year’s end. Once submitted, Iran would be required to comply under Chapter Seven of the UN Charter. The aim of the resolution, its backers say, is to force Iran back to the bargaining table. If Tehran complies, sanctions would be reversed.

But Iran shows no signs of scaling back or suspending its nuclear program, which it insists is only for peaceful purposes. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad recently called for 100,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium by next year (Reuters), 40,000 more than his previous demands. Experts say as many as 3,000 smoothly running P-1 centrifuges are required to produce one nuclear warhead in a year’s time but add that Iran remains years away from this goal.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.