• Military

• WMD Menu                           

• Introduction
• Systems
• Facilities
• Agencies
• Operations
• Countries
• Hot Documents
• News
• Reports
• Policy
• Budget
• Congress
• Links

• Intelligence
• Homeland Security
• Space

Analysis: Iran and Regional Diplomacy

Council on Foreign Relations

November 28, 2006
Prepared by: Lionel Beehner

The momentum in the Middle East is shifting. Not in anyone’s favor per se but toward a U.S. policy addressing the region’s unresolved crises— Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Iran’s nuclear program—as part of a broader Middle East settlement, rather than individually and ad hoc. Elements of this approach have been promoted by British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Counselor to the U.S. State Department Philip Zelikow (PDF), who just stepped down, as well as by leading U.S. policy analysts like CFR President Richard N. Haass. President Bush travels to the region this week to test the waters (AP) and explore what regional diplomatic options are available. Whether or not to engage Syria and Iran is also up in the air, as Syria has opened up diplomatic relations with Baghdad and Iraq’s president visits the Supreme Leader in Tehran to bolster ties ( Syria’s president was also invited to participate but declined).

Part of this shift in strategy may be explained by the diminishing prospects of a new and democratized Middle East, once touted as within reach by the Bush administration. The sectarian violence in Iraq—and U.S. domestic solutions to end the fighting, culminating with next month’s so-called Baker report—have overshadowed the United Nations’ nuclear dealings with Iran. Syria, seen by some as behind the assassination of leading Christian politician Pierre Gemayel, continues to curry influence in Lebanon. And the latest effort to forge an Israeli-Palestinian truce looks no more promising than previous cease-fires. That forms the backdrop to King Abdullah II’s warning (ABC) that three separate civil wars—in Iraq, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories—could erupt in the year ahead.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.