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Analysis: Iran's Nuclear Stonewall

Council on Foreign Relations

November 16, 2006
Prepared by: Lionel Beehner

Iran is forging ahead with its uranium-enrichment program, according to the latest report (PDF) by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Tehran also refuses to answer basic questions or provide access to all its records, making it nearly impossible for the IAEA “to confirm the peaceful nature” of its nuclear program. The IAEA continues to press Iran to readopt the Additional Protocol of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which Iran opted out of last February, and calls for more intrusive inspections. Adding to inspectors’ suspicions were traces of plutonium recently found at a waste storage facility in Karaj, suggesting that Iran may not have halted all its experiments with reprocessing technology. Previously, inspectors found traces of highly enriched uranium at the same site. The Iranians shrugged off the allegations (Reuters), claiming the material stems from peaceful experimentation at a light-water research reactor.

Meanwhile, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, while maintaining his denial he wants to build a nuclear bomb, pledged Iran would take its nuclear program to its “final step,” promising 3,000 centrifuges by the end of the Persian calendar year (March 2007) and 60,000 as his end goal. As he told the Islamic Republic News Agency, “We are at the beginning of a wave” (LAT). Setting aside for a moment the question of Iran’s ultimate goals, nuclear experts are not convinced Ahmadinejad’s promises on scientific progress are realistic. Virtually no one believes Iran will meet its March goal of 3,000 centrifuges. Further, though Iran has doubled its enrichment capacity from earlier this year (from 164 to 328 centrifuges) and feeds them with six times as much UF-6—a gaseous form of uranium used for enrichment—technical hurdles remain.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.