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Analysis: Calling Tehran's Bluff

Council on Foreign Relations

June 6, 2006
Prepared by: Michael Moran

Nearly a week has passed since Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice offered, under certain conditions, to do something the United States has steadfastly refused to do since 1979: talk directly to the Iranian government. Now the proposal, including economic incentives and 'safe' nuclear power technology (AP), has been presented to Iran officially by EU Foreign Minister Javier Solana. Tehran’s reaction, still in its formative stages, so far appears mildly positive (BBC).

Indeed, the whole initiative brought mildly positive reactions among Europeans and Americans long advocating a direct dialogue. Britain’s Guardian newspaper, for instance, and Sen. Joe Biden, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations panel, depicted this as comeuppance for the Bush administration, but also as important progress. "I think it’s long in coming, but very welcome," says Biden.

Yet the Bush administration remains quite divided. Some of its allies—the Wall Street Journal's editorial board, for instance—note Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld resisted the initiative fiercely. A WSJ editorial worries the offer amounts to "implicit U.S. recognition" that lends legitimacy to the Iranian regime. Rice quickly moved to address such fears, saying no "grand bargain" is in the offing and portraying the move as a turning of the tables on Iran (FOX).

What happens next remains uncertain. Rice and other officials resist the idea of a deadline for the offer. Iranian officials have issued vaguely conflicting statements but there appears to be some official interest in the offer.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.