Iran: Russian Expert Says Compromise On Nuclear Program Possible

Iran: Russian Expert Says Compromise On Nuclear Program Possible

Radio Farda correspondent Fariba Mavaddat spoke with Aleksei Arbatov, who heads the International Security Center at the Russian Academy of Sciences' World Economy and International Relations Institute (IMEMO), on March 7.

Radio Farda: A deal is set to be negotiated in Vienna at the moment which would allow Iran to hold on to small-scale production of enriched uranium in return for accepting the Russian proposal. Any resumption of further EU-Iran talks will also be conditioned on the deal being accepted by all parties. If we presume that the talks would be mutually beneficial to Iran and the EU, then Iran might find the deal not to its advantage.

Aleksei Arbatov: Iran gains technological expertise and some working equipment for the enrichment of uranium because it will be permitted to retain what is called "scientific research" in this area. It will be denied large-scale, industrial production facilities for enrichment. That means if Iran finally decides still to go for it, which would mean a decision to go eventually for the acquisition of nuclear weapons, then it will still have to spend several years -- maybe four or five years -- before Iran can reach this goal. As of now, without even a scientific-research enrichment capability, Iran would be as much as 10 years away from nuclear weapons at the moment of a hypothetical decision to "go for it." So we are basically -- since Iran already has some elements of nuclear infrastructure and is keen on developing further its nuclear -- peaceful -- energy industry, we are basically arguing and negotiating about the lead time that would be left to Iran if Iran makes a decision to go for nuclear weapons.

Now it is 10 years. If Iran acquires not only research-enrichment skills and technology but also large-scale industrial technology, it will be one year from [the] decision to the acquisition of nuclear weapons. The compromise, which is apparently being discussed now and will probably be supported by the IAEA, is a lead-time of about five years. Well, five years is a long time and for the world community, it will have enough time to reconvene again in the IAEA and to take a decision to the Security Council of the United Nations, to take actions to prevent Iran in whatever way from acquiring nuclear weapons. If Iran, in two years, decides to go for full-scale industrial uranium enrichment, that would be a signal to the world community that a decision has been taken to eventually go for nuclear weapons. If you interpret it in this way, then it is a reasonable compromise.

Because you have to keep in mind that legally there are no grounds to deny Iran what is called a "full nuclear-fuel cycle" for peaceful purposes provided that the cycle, all the technology and sites, are under IAEA safeguards, inspections, and supervision. Iran is ready to go for it. The world community is afraid that if Iran is permitted to have all that, then one day Iran might decide to expel IAEA safeguards, equipment, and inspections and go for nuclear weapons and will only need about a year to already have nuclear weapons. So, what we are gaining here is several years of warning time, which is as much as you can bargain for.

Radio Farda: But where would that leave the United States? The United States would be very disappointed if such a deal is struck and, as a result, the deal might only postpone a confrontation between the United States and the EU, the United States and Russia, or, indeed, the United States and Iran.

Arbatov: The United States certainly is not getting what it wanted to get, but you never get everything. You only get some semblance of the ideal -- we are not living in an ideal world. North Korea has shown the example of a country which openly withdrew from the Nonproliferation Treaty and declared possession of nuclear weapons. Where does that leave the United States? I think it leaves the United States in a much worse position. So Iran is still several years away from this situation and if it makes a commitment for a two-year break or a two-year respite before it takes a decision on industrial production, there is at least two years to work out a more effective policy. And, if after that Iran goes for large-scale industrial production, then the United States would have to apply its resources to unite all other countries, including Russia, Western Europe, China, and India to take much stronger measures against Iranian development of large-scale industrial enrichment, which then would be a signal to the world community that Iran has taken a decision to go for nuclear weapons.

Radio Farda: But the fact that it was Russia yesterday that floated a proposal to allow Iran to make small quantities of nuclear fuel, might it be seen as a serious rift between Russia and the United States?

Arbatov: I think that if this facility in Natanz, which will be considered a scientific-experimental site with several dozen centrifuges -- 160 or 200 -- small-scale production centrifuges; if this facility is under the permanent and very vigorous monitoring of the IAEA, then Russia might tell the United States it still leaves a lot of time to take necessary measures if Iran decides to go for large-scale industrial production. Moreover, since all countries would have a stake in the present compromise, an Iranian decision to break out of this compromise certainly would make it much easier for all other countries to unite in a common, united coalition to prevent Iran from going there.

Radio Farda: But everyone needs a face-saving formula. I see Iran's face is being saved by keeping a small-scale enrichment operation. The EU has saved face because it has managed to convince Iran to forego large-scale enrichment. Where does it leave the United States?

Arbatov: It leaves the U.S. in a situation in which it can say that we have gone for a small compromise -- leaving Iran with the right to have a small-scale research facility. It is impossible to enrich a sufficient quantity of weapons-grade uranium using this facility, all the more so because it will be permanently under the very rigorous supervision of the IAEA. And, moreover, we have achieved the political unity of all other countries that matter, which is based on an agreement that going from small-scale to large-scale, industrial capacity -- which Iran really might want if it decides to acquire nuclear weapons -- that would be considered almost as an act of war and a clear signal that Iran is planning to withdraw from the Nonproliferation Treaty. Then, on that basis, it would be much easier to have a joint decision even in the Security Council. Otherwise, well, politics is the art of the possible and the achievable. If the United States didn't get itself bogged down up to their ears in Iraq, they would be certainly in a much stronger position to apply some pressure on Iran. But their hands are completely tied and they know that if you calculate this whole process several steps ahead and think what can you do to Iran if you apply sanctions -- even through the United Nations Security Council -- to say nothing of unilateral actions.... But even if the United Nations Security Council approves sanctions, what can you do to Iran when the United States is now so vulnerable and so unhappy in Iraq. They should have thought about all that a long time ago when they were contemplating the military operation in Iraq. And many people warned them about that. It is not as if it turned out unexpectedly. Many people -- myself included -- were pleading with the United States not to commit this irresponsible action because it would make fighting for nonproliferation -- in particular in the cases of North Korea and Iran -- that much more difficult. They didn't listen to this and now they have to pay for it.

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Iran: Russian Expert Says Compromise On Nuclear Program Possible