• Military

• WMD Menu                           

• Introduction
• Systems
• Facilities
• Agencies
• Operations
• Countries
• Hot Documents
• News
• Reports
• Policy
• Budget
• Congress
• Links

• Intelligence
• Homeland Security
• Space

Compromise nuclear offer could take years, says Samore

IRNA - Islamic Republic News Agency

London, Nov 13, IRNA
US Samore-Iran Nuclear
Gary Samore, former National Security advisor to US President Bill Clinton, has welcomed the 'uranium compromise' offer being made to Iran but suggests that it could take years to negotiate because of its complexities.

"In fact, Iran had a similar arrangement with a French enrichment company during the days of the Shah, the so called EURODIF arrangement, and that took years to negotiate," Samore said.

"So if Iran wants it can put the discussions with Russian experts for weeks, months and even years before reaching a final decision about whether a proposal is acceptable," he told IRNA.

Clinton's senior director for Non-Proliferation and Export Controls said his understanding of the offer, which allows Iran to continue uranium conversion at its Isfahan plant, was 'developed by Russia'.

The main elements of the compromise include Iran producing UF6 material, which would then be exported to Russia for enrichment at a plant with joint ownership with Iran.

"In return for that ownership Iran would have guaranteed access to the low enriched uranium produced at the facility which would be fabricated in the fuel for Iran's nuclear power program," Samore said.

He said that these kinds of joint ownership arrangements are very complicated to negotiate but he believed if Iran shows its willingness to consider the proposal and has further discussions then the IAEA Board of Governors would decide to defer any decision on referring to the UN Security Council.

"I think it is an excellent proposal, but I am skeptical that the proposal would be accepted by the Iranian government," said Samore, who is now vice president of Global Security and Sustainability at the Chicago-based MacArthur Foundation.

But in an exclusive interview with IRNA, he suggested that despite Iran insisting on its right to develop its own fuel cycle, it may not wish to reject the proposal without having the chance to study it.

"Furthermore, the Iranian government may want to continue the discussions with the Russians through the IAEA Board of Governors meeting on November 24," the former senior advisor to Clinton said.

He believed that if Iran said no to the proposal then the US and Europeans would be in a strong position to press Russia to refer Iran to the Security Council at this month's IAEA board meeting.

"For purely tactical reasons the Iranian government may wish to have further discussions with Russia to study the proposal before making a decision about whether they will accept it."
The former director of studies at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies has often been skeptical about the peaceful intentions of Iran's civil nuclear programs despite making numerous visits to the country's sites.

With regard to the upcoming IAEA meeting, he said that there had been 'very positive developments', emphasizing that Iran has been co-operating in some issues and had given the IAEA additional access to the Parchin military industrial complex.

"Also the IAEA has got some additional information on the history of the Iran's centrifuge program and early contacts with A Q Khan network. So government of Iran has met some of the demands of the Board asking for more cooperation," Samore said.

"Diplomacy is partly working and partly not: It has failed in the sense that Iran has now resumed its conversion activities despite the threat from the EU3 to refer Iran to the Security Council," he said.

The non-proliferation expert referred to the resumption of conversion as 'a very bad sign and an indication that Iranian government was prepared to go to the UN'.

But he added that 'the good development is that Iran is continuing to observe its suspension on enrichment activities including the testing, installations and operations of centrifuges at Natanz and it is not manufacturing centrifuge components."
Despite the very positive development, Samore suggested the unknown factor was Iran's new government, saying that 'people are worried' it may decide at some point to resume some enrichment related activities.

If this happened, he warned that 'then there would be a crisis and it is very likely that the IAEA would refer Iran to New York'.

"Once the case goes to New York, the situation can escalate and get out of hand quickly," he feared.

Khab/HC/127/2221/2322/1412