Diplomacy only option to resolve Iran's nuclear dispute - IISS
IRNA - Islamic Republic News Agency
London, May 24, IRNA
UK-IISS-Iran Nuclear
The US have little option other than pursuing a diplomatic process to reach an agreement on Iran's nuclear program, even if current EU negotiations break down, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
The objective must be a 'cost-benefit analysis' to convince Iran over its right to develop a fuel cycle capability is to 'not exercise it', IISS director John Chipman said Tuesday. "This is the challenge," he suggested.
"The best hope is that during this drawn-out period, diplomatic efforts continue even if the current EU3 effort collapses," Chipman said.
His view was shared by director of studies at the right-wing institute, Gary Samore, who believed a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities was not an 'attractive option' for either the US or Israel.
"It could lead to escalation and to full-scale war," the former national security adviser on proliferation to the Clinton
Administration warned.
He said that any military attack also meant that Iran would have 'less constraints' to develop a nuclear weapon. "Iran would use it as a basis to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty then rebuild its capability without inspectors," he said.
Samore also discounted the plausibility of an Iraq-style invasion and occupation of Iran, unless the US could muster a couple of hundred thousands of troops in support somehow from its allies.
His American colleague, Jonathan Stevenson, who edits IISS's Strategic Survey, agreed that Israel was even less likely than the US to attack Iran because of 'political constraints' which includes giving groups like Hizbollah in Lebanon the excuse to retaliate.
Launching the latest annual edition of Strategic Survey, Chipman said that during the past year, Iran had 'begun learning the arts of dramatic nuclear diplomacy in its dealing with the self-styled EU3'.
He suggested that in the negotiations, that were set to continue in Geneva on Wednesday, it was possible a compromise could be reached over the EU demand for a permanent suspension of Iran's fuel cycle program.
"The definition of cessation has not been sorted out," Chipman said. "The definition can be a diplomatic solution for the EU and Iran to avoid a crisis," he proposed, but also cautioned that it may not end the US wanting Iran to disarm.
He also believed that Iran may be 'willing to tolerate the talks and the suspension for the time being, until it feels strong enough to resume its enrichment program, despite the threat of Security Council action'.
Putting the issue into perspective, the IISS director also said even if it were to abandon the suspension, Iran was 'still several years away from achieving an enrichment capability sufficient to execute a political decision to acquire nuclear weapons'.
Rather than leave the NPT and invite UN action, he believed Iran may continue to observe the treaty and temper international reaction, 'while it slowly accumulates sticks of nuclear material and enrichment capability for a quick break-out option'.
HC/2322/1432
::IRNA No.062 24/05/2005 17:56 --End
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