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UN sanctions against Iran will be 'illusive', say diplomats

IRNA - Islamic Republic News Agency

London, May 12, IRNA
Iran Nuclear-UN Sanctions
Diplomats in Washington believe that UN sanctions against Iran will prove to be illusive if the EU decides to end its negotiations to reach long-term arrangements with Tehran on its nuclear program, according to the Financial Times.

Like Iran, the daily also said Thursday that sanctions against North Korea may also be unachievable as breaking negotiations with either country could 'exacerbate the divisions between the US and its allies that hindered diplomacy in the first place'.

"Despite US rhetoric, neither the EU nor the Asian allies were convinced that the Bush administration was willing to make the concessions they saw as crucial to strike deals," it said.

"As a result, unity over sanctions will prove elusive, diplomats say, let alone military strikes," the paper said. It suggested that China could be a main hurdle in reaching a consensus on both countries.

It believed that although Beijing may have successfully used its leverage over North Korea to forestall a nuclear test, but said 'it appears unwilling to join tough sanctions out of concern that a collapsed North would lead to unification on the South's terms'.

"Likewise, China could apply economic pressure on Iran but values it as a future provider of energy," the Financial Times said about Beijing playing a 'significant role' if the cases were referred to the UN.

"The loss of credibility in US intelligence after Iraq, and Iran's latent ability to create havoc there, are also serious problems," it further warned.

Reporting from Washington, it quoted officials saying that the US may have to turn to the Group of Seven industrialized nations, which unlike the G8, excludes Russia, 'for agreement on punitive measures, as well as the Proliferation Security Initiative'.

The security initiative is an ad hoc coalition set up by the US outside the UN with the aim of applying economic pressure through interdictions of cargoes.

But analysts were said to remain unconvinced that the US had fully excluded military options, even though war gaming at the Pentagon had not produced attractive options.

"They don't see a military option in North Korea. They do in Iran," Cliff Kupchan, an analyst with the Eurasia Group consultancy, was quoted saying.

If there is no progress in the EU-Iran talks, Kupchan suggested that there was a '70 percent chance of a US or Israeli military strike by next April'.

But Ray Takeyh of the Council on Foreign Relations who was said to disagree, believed that 'despite the Iraq experience, the US might well do nothing and reluctantly accept a not-so-perfect deal which that the EU could might yet strike with Iran'.

HC/2322/1432
::IRNA No.023 12/05/2005 14:18 --End