Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=9/23/03

TYPE=INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

TITLE=MICHAEL LEVI

NUMBER=3-793

BYLINE=DAVID BORGIDA

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

/// EDITORS: THIS INTERVIEW IS AVAILABLE IN DALET UNDER SOD/ENGLISH NEWS NOW INTERVIEWS IN THE FOLDER FOR TODAY OR YESTERDAY ///

Monday, Iran put some of its nuclear weapons on public display during a parade in Tehran. Michael Levi, a Science and Technology Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies

at the Brookings Institution, joins VOA-TV host David Borgida for a discussion about Iran's nuclear weapons program.

MR. BORGIDA

And now joining us, from the Brookings Institution here in Washington, D.C., Michael Levi. He is a Science and Technology Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies there and also writes widely about such things as defense and security policy. Mr. Levi, thanks for joining us today on Newsline.

MR. LEVI

My pleasure.

MR. BORGIDA

These new missiles, Shahab-3 missiles, that Iran has paraded during this parade in Tehran, tell us about the missiles, keeping in mind that our audience is not made up of military experts. But give us a sense of their potential and their danger.

MR. LEVI

These missiles are medium-range ballistic missiles. They can travel roughly 1,300 kilometers, or 800 miles, in the time of several minutes. And they can carry a payload of a fairly crude first-generation nuclear weapon if Iran had nuclear weapons.

The distinction between the missiles being a deterrent and not a deterrent isn't much. That distinction is more in how you use them rather than in what they are. So for Iran to say no, these are not nuclear armed, potentially nuclear armed, missiles, they are a deterrence instead, doesn't really say much.

MR. BORGIDA

Well, clearly the United Nations nuclear agency is on top of this and wants Iran to let them know by October 31st if indeed it has a nuclear weapons program. How do you expect all this to play out?

MR. LEVI

I think it's a mischaracterization to say that the International Atomic Energy Agency, the IAEA, has asked Iran to prove that it does not have a nuclear weapons program. What it has asked is for Iran to prove, or at least for Iran to allow the inspections to prove, that it doesn't have a hidden nuclear weapons program.

There is nothing right now to prohibit Iran from proceeding with what could essentially be a nuclear weapons program in full sight. The uranium enrichment plants that Iran is building, is proceeding with, the plutonium production reactor that they are proceeding with, both are indistinguishable from military facilities that would be used to develop nuclear weapons.

So while the IAEA is in part on top of things insofar as what it can do with respect to inspections, the international community has to go further and needs to be looking at removing the enrichment option from Iran.

MR. BORGIDA

Clearly, Mr. Levi, Tehran had to know that seeing these missiles in a parade would refocus attention on whether they have in fact a nuclear program or not. One would think that this would be clear to them, don't you think?

MR. LEVI

Well, Iran has a tough balancing act, much like Iraq had a tough balancing act. On the one hand, it wants to reduce suspicions that it has an ill-intentioned program. At the same time there is a very good reason why it has a nuclear program and why it has a missile program. And that is to intimidate its neighbors, at least insofar as it can do that to keep others from interfering with its internal affairs.

So in that sense Iran sees it as being to its advantage to display its strength. So there is a calculation going on here. And it seems that the Iranian authorities have calculated that displaying these missiles is enough not to disrupt whatever negotiations are going on over the nuclear program but still enough to send a message that others should stay at bay.

MR. BORGIDA

So, as you say, there is a certain degree of posturing going on. How serious a threat is this to Iran's neighbors, and Israel perhaps in particular?

MR. LEVI

Well, this is certainly a threat to Iran's neighbors, not in that it would necessarily attack with nuclear weapons, but in that having that shelter, that protection could embolden it to take more aggressive actions.

And it's not necessarily Israel that's going to be the most concerned. Israel has its own deterrent. And what matters less is whether there is a genuine threat to Iran's neighbors than whether Iran's neighbors perceive a threat. And in that regard, Saudi Arabia is certainly going to perceive a significant threat. And there were reports last week, quite predictable reports I should say, that Saudi Arabia is reconsidering its own commitment to nuclear nonproliferation, as is Syria.

So the impact is not just due to what the real security threat of this is but what the perceived security threat is. And unfortunately the nuclear program scares a lot of folks in the region.

MR. BORGIDA

Michael Levi, of the Brookings Institution here in Washington, sharing his insight about the Iranian nuclear program and situation. Thanks so much, Mr. Levi, for being our guest today.

MR. LEVI

Thank you.

NEB