Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=01/26/2003

TYPE=ON THE LINE

NUMBER=1-01268

TITLE=HOPE FOR DEMOCRACY IN IRAN?

INTERNET=Yes

EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY 619-0037

CONTENT=

THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE

Host: Is there hope for democracy in Iran? Next, On the Line.

[music]

Host: Pro-democracy demonstrations by students in Iran have not led to greater freedoms. Instead, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the hard-line Muslim clerics who rule Iran, has had students, journalists, lawyers, and others who speak out, arrested. Some are released; others continue to be held in prison. The so-called Special Clergy Court has also shut down many reform-minded newspapers, accusing them of insulting the clerical authorities. But the people of Iran continue to yearn for democracy and freedom. Even Shi'ite clerics themselves have begun speaking out against the regime of Ayatollah Khamenei. "Those in power do not tolerate any ideas other than their own," Iranian cleric Abolfazl Moussavian told the New York Times. "People have become skeptical toward clerics," he said, "and blame them and religion for the current problems."

President George W. Bush has said that the U-S "continues to stand with the people of Iran in [their] quest for freedom, prosperity, honest and effective government, judicial due process and the rule of law." What can be done by the U-S, and others, to help the people of Iran achieve the freedom they have been demanding? I'll ask my guests, Patrick Clawson, deputy director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy; Roya Boroumand, director of the Foundation for Human Rights and Democracy in Iran; and by phone, Genieve Abdo, former Tehran correspondent for The Guardian newspaper, and co-author of the forthcoming book "Answering Only to God: Faith and Freedom in 21st Century Iran." Welcome, and thanks for joining us.

Roya Boroumand, what is the current state of democracy in Iran?

Boroumand: That's a difficult question to answer. I don't think there is a democracy right now in Iran. There are elections that are not free. People go to the polls, but you can't call that a democracy, because, [for example] I can't be a candidate, a lot of other people like me can't be candidates. So, the current state of democracy? There is no democracy. There is some form of freedom of speech that is a little bit different from what we knew in the Soviet Union at the time of the worst repression, or China. There is some form of freedom of expression for a very limited number of people who are in or on the fringes of the ruling oligarchy. Other people have to be very careful about what they do and what they say. And there is no organization -- there is no possibility to organize. N-G-Os [Non-Governmental Organizations] are not registered. Those who are not insiders and in the ruling elite -- political parties [are] non-existent unless you accept the ruling principle of the Islamic Republic.

Host: Let me bring Patrick Clawson in on this. Did the student protests of this last fall have any impact on that?

Clawson: I think the student protests have demonstrated even more clearly that many, many people are dissatisfied by this form of elections for a parliament that increasingly has no authority, and that many people want to go much further than the elected reforms in the parliament. So the demonstrations helped show that the popular attitudes have gone well beyond the movement of President [Mohammad] Khatami and the reformers in the parliament.

Host: Genieve Abdo, are you there by phone?

Abdo: Yes.

Host: Do you agree that there is popular sentiment for going beyond what the reformers have promised?

Abdo: Yes, absolutely. This was clear even as long ago as two or three years ago. And during the first student protests in the summer of 1999, there were even calls then that perhaps there should be another alternative to Mohammed Khatami, who people even then perceived as being a man of the system. And so certainly, the student demonstrations are pushing this movement forward. But I think that we should be very careful as to how we define what the protests are about -- or what, generally, the discontent means in Iran. There is a great notion in the United States to be very simplistic in this analysis, and to say 'these people are demonstrating because they want a secular state' or 'they're demonstrating because this is an anti-Islamic movement.' And I think we have to be very careful in our terminology, because it's a very complex situation, a very complicated country, and many of the people I interviewed when I was a correspondent in Iran -- hundreds of students -- they don't like this Islamic system, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they're in favor of a completely secular state. And what they're trying to work out -- and if you look at the statements that many of the clerics you're referring to, their statements illustrate that what they're trying to work out is how an Islamic republic can also be democratic. That does not mean they're advocating a Western-style democracy.

Host: Roya Boroumand, are students interested in a secular democracy, or a reform of an Islamic republic?

Boroumand: I must agree with Miss Abdo when she says that Iran is a complicated country. It is true that Iran is a complicated country, and there is a variety of people gathered in the students' movement. The association of the students' movement are inherited from the 1980s, where we had a Soviet-style system with associations and groups created by the state and controlled by the state. And right now the same thing applies in the sense that a lot of people -- there are different people in these associations. However, I think that as we go -- I don't have the privilege to be in Iran and interview people, but I follow very closely what the students say and write -- and it is very clear that a big chunk of what we read is about, not religious democracy, but is about human rights and complete human rights. I have a bunch of communiqués here that you can read. They understand since 1999 -- and I think they had a big lesson from the '99 rioting and the support they got from the reformists [in the system], which was almost none -- that they have been used by various groups within the political elite. And that comes in almost every single communiqué. They have understood that there is no participation in a closed system. They have understood, and they say it, that the ruling elite, when they lose legitimacy, they bring out the more moderate people in that ruling oligarchy in order to try to gain legitimacy by some cosmetic changes. And they say it -- all of this is what I get on the Web [the Internet]. And they say the student protests will gain much more in opening the country to political participation and to go toward democracy if they don't play this game. And they keep putting pressure on the real demands, which is -- be it inside the university, all the things that go wrong inside the university, or for political participation, for human rights, the principles of democracy, which are not religious.

Host: Patrick Clawson, do you think that the student protests have moved toward demands for secular democracy or a reform of the Islamic form of democracy?

Clawson: Well, if we look back over the last eight years, what's happened is that every few years, issues which once upon a time were controversial now become widely accepted. So, as Genieve Abdo was saying, a few years ago, in 1999, some people were saying 'down with Khatami,' or 'Khatami hasn't gone far enough.' Now that's become a widely accepted viewpoint. And every few years a new set of issues, which would have been considered absolutely beyond the pale, get raised. So now we see some of the prominent figures, both in the student movement and among the intellectuals, asking themselves 'can there actually be such a thing as an Islamic republic?,' or is the association of Islam and democracy simply incompatible.

Boroumand: And Mr. [Akbar] Ganji is an excellent example.

Clawson: Mr. Ganji, he wrote this from prison. Here's a gentleman who writes a book ["A Prison-like Archipelago"] from prison asking this question about whether or not one can have religion and democracy together. So there's a dynamic here which is, I would think, a very disturbing dynamic if I were a supporter of an Islamic republic, because this movement is being pushed towards being more and more extreme by the actions of the hard-liners on the conservative side.

Host: Genieve Abdo, do you think that there is a change happening there?

Abdo: Absolutely. There's great change. As Patrick Clawson pointed out, of course, we do see all these issues that were taboo even six months ago, now are out in the open. And people even said, in 1999 for example, that one thing that President Khatami did for the movement toward reform in Iran is that he opened up the intellectual debate in the country. He allowed these issues to be expressed. And as we've seen, many things that were once taboo are expressed now. But, on the other hand, we have to take into account that when these periods of expression happen, in the form of protests or in other ways, [for example] when newspapers are opened, there's always a crackdown. So you have to measure the progress that's made against the crackdown which immediately follows. We can see from the news just today what's happened. Recently, reformist newspapers have been closed. People who conducted an opinion poll showing that a vast majority of Iranians want dialogue with the United States, they were put on trial. So there's always a crack-down in response to whatever expressions of protest occur.

Host: And what sort of crackdown was there with regard to the student protests themselves?

Abdo: Many students -- every time there's a protest, the idea is to intimidate the students so that they don't protest. Their leaders are put in prison. And this, of course, is one of the reasons that the student movement is without any real leadership. Again, although there are students demonstrating, we have to keep in mind that it took the Islamic revolution nearly thirty years to actually materialize. And that revolution was based on a broad-based social movement that included students, nationalists, secularists in the country. And we're a long way from that now. There is a movement, there is a great movement for change. A lot of change has happened. But I really caution people, particularly in the United States, who write editorials in the newspaper saying that a great revolution is going to happen tomorrow. I think that we're looking at a very slow and gradual process, simply because there aren't leaders in this movement, because the conservatives are very, very clever and very ruthless in putting in prison anyone who could possibly lead such a movement.

Host: Roya Boroumand, has the regime succeeded in eliminating the leaders by throwing them in jail?

Boroumand: The regime has done that for two decades now. This is not new in the strategy of the regime, to eliminate any organization that is outside of its control. The eighties saw most of the political dissidents executed, and the nineties saw the dissidents in exile "taken care of" [killed]. So this is not new. I think what is important -- it is right that I don't know what a revolution means, you know, whether a revolution is coming or not -- as a pro-democracy activist and a scholar, for me it is very important that people articulate what they want. And I think that each of these protests, even if there is a crackdown afterwards -- and unfortunately the crackdown affects more people that we don't know than people we know -- but each time you see a better-articulated movement, more interesting debates coming out of it. So, in a way it is true that there is a crackdown, but it is also true that each step is a step forward. And if we don't speak up and we don't say the truth, and if the students don't say and don't make some kind of a movement to show their anger, there will be no changes.

Host: Patrick Clawson, is the student movement gaining ground outside of the university? Is this movement growing and gaining any kind of leadership in communities other than among students?

Clawson: You're pointing to a very important aspect of Iranian life, which is that the students are respected by broad layers of society. There isn't the kind of disdainful attitude that you see in some countries toward student protesters. Instead, students are indeed regarded with high respect. And universities are regarded as a place of, well, the hopes of the nation are embodied in it. And so, these student protests really do touch a chord among ordinary people, especially since the student protests have been in some in the universities where you've had people from relatively small towns and villages throughout the country there. So the students have spread the message back to their homes.

Host: Now, are many of these students, are they themselves clerical students involved in this?

Clawson: The system in Iran discriminates against people who come from well-to-do backgrounds, or Western, secularized backgrounds, for admission to the universities. And so the university students are disproportionately people who come from more clerical, or more religious I should say, backgrounds, and come from smaller towns and rural areas. And that means that these students are a true cross-section of Iranian society. The elite students are forced to go to private universities, and that's not where the protests have been centered at all. They've been centered in the state schools.

Boroumand: Technical, polytechnic [schools]. I think to add to this, it is hard to figure out what is happening inside the university, and how many [students] are where, and what position. There's no way to do that research. Miss Abdo probably knows from being in Iran that there are so much red tape for journalists to report on the dissidents that basically we don't get much, except for what they [the students] say. Students, in the majority, are upset. That's what they say in their communiqués. Because, what they're taught is substandard and they know it. But also, because when they come out of the university, there is no jobs. If you look at the numbers that professors give, or government officials give, for a country that has a very high rate of graduate people, and very high rates of literacy, only less than twelve and a half percent of the civil servants have a high school diploma. And less than nine percent of the management of the country has any university diploma. And this hasn't changed at all during the presidency of Mr. Khatami, and students say that. So the joke is, a good student will look for a job at forty [years old] and will look for a wife at fifty. So, that they know, and that's what they all are upset about.

Host: Genieve Abdo, how is that economic issue part of these protests?

Abdo: I think it's definitely there in the background, of course. And it certainly fuels the discontent. However, I think that if you look at the history of Iran, and certainly if you look at the revolution, it didn't happen for economic reasons. And I think that the primary concern among students and among society in general now, those that are discontented, they're concerned about their lack of freedom. And they're concerned about liberties, and they're concerned about what they interpret as the absolute rule of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. And these are still their primary concerns. Of course, if they had jobs, and if a million people didn't try to get a job every year -- I think the estimates now are that there are a million unemployed who enter the job market every year -- if these statistics weren't what they are, then of course people would be more satisfied. But what has not happened -- and I think this is very key, but could happen in the future -- is, all over Iran periodically there are protests over economic issues, sporadic protests in cities that are unreported. Should these people at some point join forces with the students, who are more concerned about political matters, then you would be talking about a widespread social movement. And then it would be something that would be a tremendous threat to the regime. But I don't think that we're seeing that happen just yet.

Boroumand: The reason I mentioned the job market was not to say that the students are upset only because of the economic situation, but to say that the discrimination is all over the place. It's not only the political participation that is not allowed, but any position that could be a sort of participation in the affairs of the country is not allowed. And the students each time -- even when they protest against the university problems, or any other issue -- there are always a couple of political slogans inside of the communiqués. And so it always widens to the [issue of] the lack of freedom and the discrimination in everything, in every aspect of their lives -- the laws and everything else.

Host: Patrick Clawson, there have been some efforts from President [George W.] Bush to make public a support for this movement in Iran. Is that helpful? And what can the U.S. and other countries do to help promote the democratic movement in Iran?

Clawson: The democratic movement in Iran is overwhelmingly going to go its own course, based upon the problems they face inside Iran. But they are affected by developments outside. And so, for instance, if there's a more democratic Middle East -- if the United States is able to press its friends to become more democratic, and if there is a more democratic Iraq after Saddam Hussein -- all of this is going to have some influence, much as the successes of democracy in Afghanistan have been embarrassing to Iranians who have long regarded themselves as more civilized and superior peoples compared to Afghans. And that regional effect is having an impact. And so too are shows like this and information coming from the outside world, which again brings news into Iran about what [life] could be [like] there. This also influences the attitudes.

Host: Genieve Abdo, we only have about half a minute left if you can jump in on that.

Abdo: I just want to make one point related to this topic that Patrick talks about, which is that, yes, democracy in the region will inspire them. However, it has to be a democratic process which comes from within Iran. And I think what distinguishes the Iranians from probably any other society in the region, is that they will not tolerate a U.S.-imposed transformation of their, either political system or their society. And that's something that we have to keep in mind. What worked -- Afghanistan or a possible Iraqi scenario -- would never work in Iran.

Host: I'm afraid that's going to have to be the last word for today. That's all the time we have. I'd like to thank my guests, Patrick Clawson of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Roya Boroumand of the Foundation for the Promotion of Human Rights and Democracy in Iran, and by phone, author and journalist Genieve Abdo. Before we go, I'd like to invite our audience to send us your questions or comments. You can e-mail them to ontheline@ibb.gov For On the Line, I'm Eric Felten.