DATE=2/27/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=IRAN'S NEW LOOK
NUMBER=5-45528
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: The reformers swamped the conservatives in
Iran's recent parliamentary elections. But President
Mohammed Khatami cautioned Iran would not change its
goals, no matter what other nations may want. V-O-A's
Ed Warner reports that theme was echoed in a
Washington conference in which participants said the
reformist victory will change the politics of Iran,
but not necessarily its dealings with the outside
world.
TEXT: New parties, new platforms, new faces. That is
how Suzanne Maloney summed up the recent reformist
victory in Iran's parliamentary elections. She noted
its size was stunning, continuing a democratic trend
in Iran:
// MALONEY ACT //
The vote tallies that we are seeing so far very
much mirror the tallies that we saw in the 1997
Presidential elections and in the elections for
Islamic Councils - essentially city councils -
that were held for the very first time a year
ago in March. What we are seeing over three-
years and over three elections, the Iranian
people - 70-percent of them and more - have
consistently voted in favor of change and in
favor of reform.
// END ACT //
At a meeting of Washington's Brookings Institution,
Iran analyst Maloney said a wider freedom has
accompanied the elections. Iranians can say things in
public that would have landed them in jail a few years
ago. Their hard-fought political campaign differs
little from one in the west.
But Suzanne Maloney added that reformers are divided
on various issues and therefore may not present a
united front:
// MALONEY ACT //
This grand rainbow of reformists includes people
who have fairly technocratic views of what the
economy should be, which means a fairly strong
private sector, a small public sector. It also
includes people who have old-fashioned leftist
views of the world and favor a much more active
state sector in which the government takes a
very direct role for the security and economic
fortunes of the general public. So I think you
are going to see a lot of internecine warfare.
// END ACT //
The new reform parliament is still only part of the
government, cautioned Louisiana State University
Political Science Professor Mark Gasiorowski. He
noted considerable power remains in the hands of the
clerics:
// GASIOROWSKI ACT //
The conservatives still do control a lot of
important institutions: the security forces, the
radio and television media. To a large extent,
they control the national security council,
which plays a major role in foreign policy, and
even still today much of the judiciary.
// END ACT //
For that reason, said Professor Gasiorowski, the
reformers must move with caution to avoid a backlash
that could even result in a coup. The fate of Iran is
yet to be decided.
Professor Gasiorowski expects some degree of economic
reform. Cultural change should also continue as women
are freed from clerical restrictions.
Foreign policy is another matter, said the professor.
The United States insists on progress in three areas:
terrorism, the Middle East peace process, and weapons
of mass destruction. But Iran will follow what it
considers its own national interest:
// GASIOROWSKY ACT //
Iran lives in a very dangerous neighborhood.
The Pakistanis now have nuclear weapons. Who
really thinks Iraq will not have them in 10-
years? The Israelis, of course, have nuclear
weapons and long-range strike aircraft. The U-S
fleet in the Persian Gulf probably has nuclear
weapons. Essentially, all Iranians feel that
they need strong defense, and weapons of mass
destruction as a deterrent force make a lot of
sense.
// END ACT //
Professor Gasiorowski said Iran's reformers are not
that concerned with foreign relations and have
ambivalent feelings about the United States.
(SIGNED)
NEB/EW/RAE
27-Feb-2000 13:55 PM EDT (27-Feb-2000 1855 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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