17 February 2000
Panel Discusses Upcoming Iranian Elections
(Results could lead to improved relations with U.S.) (870) By William B. Reinckens Washington File Staff Writer Washington -- On the eve of the Majlis or Parliamentary elections in Iran, a panel of scholars on Iran addressed the issue of what the February 18 election will mean to Iranian voters and how it might affect future U.S.- Iranian relations. On February 16, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright told a Congressional hearing that the United States "was looking at ways ... that might lead to something different" in relations between Tehran and Washington and that the election results could have a large influence on how relations proceed. Earlier, President Clinton said he hoped that the elections in Iran would lead to "a constructive relationship" between the two countries. At the same time, Iran's supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told voters to disappoint the United States by voting for devout revolutionaries. "You can send a faithful and devout person to parliament. ... God willing, people will show their support for Islam and the Islamic system at the polls." He also called on voters to reject candidates "scared or fascinated" by the West. Despite such strong sentiments, Shaul Bakhash, a leading scholar on contemporary Iranian politics said, "Iran is beginning to get a government where politics and factions are important." He noted that the election has a record 5,824 candidates. He also sees this election as an expression of a growing confidence in the electoral process many Iranians hope will lead to the easing of the strict Islamic rules that have been in place for the last two decades. Neither Iran's poor economy nor its foreign affairs are playing a major role in this election, according to Farideh Farhi, a former professor at Tehran University. She credits the growth of the reform movement to a reaction against the removal of many of the local governors and mayors last year. More than 38 million Iranians are above the age of 16 and eligible to vote. Of these about five million are political activists. Two hundred ninety seats are being contested in this, the first of the two-round process. These Iranian voters are divided into five distinct political groups ranging from Left to Right, according to Farhi. Some well-known Iranian names will be vying for elective office. President Khatami's brother is running, as is the brother of Supreme Leader Ali Hoseini Khamenei. Another candidate is Dr. Alireza Nouri, brother of the popular dissident cleric, Abdollah Nouri who was jailed last year for questioning Khamenei's authority. He also wrote a book questioning what Iran has gained from its isolation from the West. Another well-known Iranian, former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, is also running for a seat. Rafsanjani, who Farhi said is trying to recast himself as a reformer, is expected to make a bid to be the next Speaker of the Majlis. The Iranian elections panel, which was held at the Wilson Center, was moderated by Elaine Sciolino, of the New York Times and the reporter who first interviewed Iranian President Khatami after his 1997 landslide victory. All of the panelists agreed that Iran's independent newspapers have kept the electorate informed and that television for the most part has been a tool of the conservative elements inside Iran. Prior to the election, several foreign broadcast news organizations reported jamming by the Iranian authorities. The panel also noted that President Mohammad Khatami's supporters hope a big turnout will help them bring change to Iran. As far as U.S.-Iranian relations are concerned, Robert Pelletreau, former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, said that "Iranian-American differences are serious and cannot be simply brushed away." However, he added "they are the product of modern history and are not as deep or intractable as the ethno-national conflicts seen elsewhere." He spoke at an event sponsored by the Iranian Trade Association, a group interested in expanding trade with Iran, and noted the long-standing trading sanctions that the U.S. has applied to Iran. There is some belief that after the elections Tehran might welcome foreign investment to aid its ailing oil industry and weak economy and develop job opportunities for its young population and unemployed university graduates. U.S. differences with the current Iranian government emerged on February 3, when George Tenet, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, testified before Congress. He said Iran's development of the Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missile, "and the development of longer-range missiles that have been the product of extensive Russian assistance," are important U.S. concerns. Tenet added that "Iran's emergence as a secondary supplier of this technology to other countries is the trend that worries me the most." Whatever results come out of the Iranian elections, said Dr. Jon B. Alterman, a Middle Eastern scholar at the U.S. Institute of Peace and who has just returned from visiting Iran, "the (U.S.-Iranian) relationship will move along incrementally." There will be few major or immediate breakthroughs, and conservatives and reformers will still compete to control Iran's political life. (The Washington File is a product of the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: usinfo.state.gov)
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