DATE=07/24/99
TYPE=ON THE LINE
NUMBER=1-00759
TITLE=WHAT NEXT IN IRAN?
EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY - 619-0037
CONTENT=
THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE
ANNCR: ON THE LINE -- A DISCUSSION OF UNITED STATES
POLICIES AND CONTEMPORARY ISSUES.
THIS WEEK, "WHAT NEXT IN IRAN?" HERE IS YOUR
HOST, ROBERT REILLY.
HOST: HELLO AND WELCOME TO ON THE LINE.
THIS MONTH, IRANIAN STUDENTS AND OTHERS MOUNTED
THE LARGEST AND MOST VIOLENT DEMONSTRATIONS
SINCE THE 1979 ISLAMIC REVOLUTION. STUDENTS,
CHANTING "LONG LIVE LIBERTY, DEATH TO
DESPOTISM," PROTESTED AGAINST GOVERNMENT
REPRESSION IN TEHRAN AND MANY OTHER CITIES. THE
DEMONSTRATIONS BEGAN AFTER A RELIGIOUS COURT
ORDERED THE CLOSING OF SALAM, ONE OF IRAN'S MOST
INFLUENTIAL MODERATE NEWSPAPERS. ISLAMIC
HARDLINERS AND POLICE ATTACKED THE PROTESTERS.
SEVERAL PEOPLE WERE KILLED AND DOZENS WOUNDED.
JOINING ME TODAY TO DISCUSS RECENT EVENTS IN
IRAN ARE TWO EXPERTS: AZAR NAFISI IS A VISITING
SENIOR FELLOW AT THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR
NEAR EAST POLICY AND A VISITING PROFESSOR AT THE
JOHNS HOPKINS SCHOOL FOR ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL
STUDIES. AND KHALID DURAN IS A MIDDLE EAST
ANALYST AND EDITOR OF THE JOURNAL, TRANSISLAM.
WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM. AZAR NAFISI, LET ME ASK
YOU, SINCE YOU ARE IRANIAN, HOW IS IT THAT SOME
TWENTY YEARS AFTER THE REVOLUTION, YOU HAVE TENS
OF THOUSANDS OF STUDENTS MARCHING THROUGH THE
VARIOUS CITIES OF IRAN, CHANTING SOME OF THE
VERY SAME SLOGANS THAT BROUGHT DOWN THE SHAH.
WHAT IS THE MEANING OF THIS?
NAFISI: WELL YOU KNOW, IN FACT, THEY GO MUCH FURTHER
THAN THE SLOGANS THAT BROUGHT DOWN THE SHAH. AT
THAT TIME, THE STRUGGLE WAS MAINLY IDEOLOGICAL.
I MEAN, THERE WERE POLITICAL ORGANIZATIONS WITH
IDEOLOGICAL AGENDAS, LIKE THE MARXIST
ORGANIZATIONS, LIKE THE ISLAMISTS. NOW THE
STUDENTS HAVE BROADENED THE SLOGANS TO GO BEYOND
IDEOLOGY. THEY ALL WANT DEMOCRACY. AND YOU
MENTIONED THE SLOGANS, "AGAINST DESPOTISM" AND
"FOR LIBERTY." BUT THEY WERE ALSO VERY SPECIFIC
IN THEIR SLOGANS. THEY TARGETED THE AGENTS OF
DESPOTISM AS THE SUPREME JUDICIARY LEADER, THE
MILITIA, THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS, THE IRANIAN
PARLIAMENT, AND THE JUDICIARY.
HOST: AND ALSO AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI?
NAFISI: YES, THE SUPREME LEADER. THIS SHOWS THAT THE
CHILDREN OF REVOLUTION, WHOM THE REVOLUTIONARIES
WERE IRONICALLY HOPING WOULD TAKE THEIR PLACE
AND WOULD CREATE THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC ACCORDING
TO THE MODEL THAT AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI HAD
ENVISIONED, ARE NOW THE ONES WHO ARE REALLY
TURNING AND NEGATING THE REVOLUTION.
HOST: ONE OF THE SLOGANS HEARD DURING THE
DEMONSTRATIONS WAS: "ISLAM AND LAW, OR
REVOLUTION." IN OTHER WORDS, THE PROTESTERS
THOUGHT THEY WERE THE ONES REPRESENTING ISLAM
AND LAW, AND THE ONLY ALTERNATIVE TO WHAT THEY
WANTED WOULD THEN BE REVOLUTION. HOW DO WE
UNDERSTAND WHAT THEY MEANT BY "ISLAM AND LAW"?
KHALID DURAN, DO YOU HAVE AN IDEA?
DURAN: THERE ARE ALWAYS PEOPLE FEELING THAT THERE IS
SOMEWHERE, SOMEHOW, A REAL ISLAM, A GOOD ISLAM,
A NICE ISLAM, OUR ISLAM, NOT THE BAD ISLAM THAT
IS BEING SHOWN TO US, NOT THE CORRUPT ISLAM, THE
DISTORTED ISLAM THAT IS BEING EXERCISED HERE BY
A RULING CLASS, CLERICS IN THIS CASE.
HOST: BUT DOES THE GOOD ISLAM INCLUDE DEMOCRACY?
DURAN: WELL, FOR THE PROTESTERS, THE DEMONSTRATORS, YES
IT DOES. AS A MATTER OF FACT, THAT'S WHAT THEY
MEAN BY GOOD ISLAM. NOW, YOU KNOW, AS WITH ALL
RELIGIONS, THEY ARE ALWAYS A BIT ELASTIC. YOU
CAN PULL THEM A BIT THIS WAY OR A BIT THAT WAY,
AND SO ON. NOW, THE PRESENT RULING CLASS IN
IRAN, THE CLERICAL ESTABLISHMENT, THEY HAVE
REALLY PULLED THEIR ISLAM TO AN EXTREME, SO THAT
FOR MANY PEOPLE IN IRAN THEY CANNOT RECOGNIZE
THAT ANYMORE AS OUR ISLAM. SO WE WANT THE REAL
THING. BUT WE SHOULD STILL BE CAUTIOUS. I
THINK THAT'S ALSO A BIT TACTICAL THAT THE
STUDENTS.SHOUTED THAT BECAUSE, AS A MATTER OF
FACT, THE REAL PROBLEM, TO MY MIND, RATHER IS
THAT SO MANY PEOPLE IN IRAN HAVE LOST THEIR
FAITH IN ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING. THERE IS A
LOT OF CYNICISM. THERE IS A DESPAIR IN A SENSE.
CERTAINLY PEOPLE DO NOT WANT IDEOLOGY, AND SO
ON. I WOULDN'T TAKE THAT TOO SERIOUSLY. IF THE
PROTESTS CONTINUE, YOU WILL HEAR VERY DIFFERENT
SLOGANS.
HOST: ALL RIGHT. THIS IS WHAT I FIND SO CURIOUS, AZAR
NAFISI, IS THAT THE CLERICAL REGIME SEEMS TO
HAVE UNDERSTOOD VERY WELL THE ROLE OF THE
UNIVERSITIES AND STUDENTS IN THE DOWNFALL OF THE
SHAH, AND APPLIED ITSELF TO UTILIZING THESE
UNIVERSITIES TO DEVELOP A GROUP THAT WOULD
SUPPORT THE REGIME, BY PICKING THE SONS OF
REVOLUTIONARY GUARD TROOPS AND POORER PEOPLE
FROM FUNDAMENTALIST FAMILIES. YET, THESE SEEM
TO BE THE VERY STUDENTS WHO HAVE BEEN OUT THERE
REJECTING THIS GOVERNMENT. WHAT HAPPENED?
NAFISI: THAT IS TRUE. AND ALSO IN REGARD TO WHAT YOU
WERE SAYING, THAT SLOGAN WAS VERY TACTICAL. I
WILL COME TO THAT POINT YOU MADE. THE VERY
INTERESTING THING ABOUT THE SLOGANS AND THESE
PROTESTS AND WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING IN IRAN IS
THAT, MORE AND MORE, THEY ARE MOVING TOWARDS
SECULARISM. THE STRIKING THING ABOUT THE
SLOGANS WAS THAT THERE WERE MORE SLOGANS
PRO-PRIME MINISTER [MOHAMMED] MOSSADEGH, THE
NATIONALIST PRIME MINISTER WHO WAS OVERTHROWN IN
NINETEEN FIFTY-THREE, AND THE NATIONALIST
LEADERS WHO WERE MURDERED IN IRAN BY THE
SECURITY FORCES.
HOST: YOU MEAN THE DISSIDENT POLITICAL LEADERS WHO
WERE MURDERED LAST YEAR?
NAFISI: RIGHT. AND THEY WERE SAYING THAT, "MOSSADEGH,
[PARVANEH] FOROUHAR, YOUR PATH WILL BE
CONTINUED." AND THERE WAS ALMOST NO MENTION,
EXCEPT FOR KHATEMI, OF ANY LEADERS. NO MENTION
OF AYATOLLAH KHOMEINI. AND WHEN THEY MENTIONED
KHATEMI, THEY ALSO HAD QUESTIONS. THEY SAID:
"KHATEMI, KHATEMI, WHERE ARE YOU? WHERE ARE
YOU?" AND "WE WON'T LEAVE UNTIL WE SEE
KHATEMI."
HOST: WELL, THAT WAS A VERY GOOD QUESTION: WHERE WAS
HE? KHALID DURAN, YOU PERSONALLY KNEW MR.
KHATEMI, ALBEIT BEFORE THE REVOLUTION. BUT YOU
HAVE SOME PERSONAL KNOWLEDGE OF HIM. WHO IS HE,
AND WHERE WAS HE?
DURAN: WELL, HE CERTAINLY IS NOT WHAT THE WORLD PRESS
HAS MADE HIM OUT TO BE OVER THE LAST YEAR OR
TWO. I SOMETIMES LOOK AT HIS PICTURE AND ASK
MYSELF, IS THIS REALLY TRUE? BUT THEN I SEE HIM
THERE. HE IS THE MAN WHOM WE KNEW. I WORKED IN
HAMBURG IN GERMANY FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS, AND HE
WAS IMAM AT THE IRANIAN MOSQUE OVER THERE. JUST
LIKE THE LATE AYATOLLAH [MOHAMMED] BEHESHTI
BEFORE HIM. NOW, MOHAMMED KHATEMI CERTAINLY DID
NOT IMPRESS US AS AN INTELLECTUAL. I DO NOT
WANT TO PULL HIM DOWN, BUT THAT, HE CERTAINLY IS
NOT. WHAT WE CAN SAY, I MEAN WITH HIS
EXPERIENCE, THE WAY WE SAW HIM OVER THERE, AND
THEN THE ROLE HE ASSUMED IN IRAN, HE IS A
FIRST-CLASS CONSPIRATOR. I MEAN, HE IS AN
ARCHITECT OF THIS SYSTEM, OF THIS REVOLUTION.
AND THEREFORE, THE MOST MISTAKEN COMPARISON
ANYONE COULD EVER MAKE WAS TO COMPARE HIM WITH
[MIKHAIL] GORBACHEV. GORBACHEV IS A MAN WHO
REALLY CHANGED THINGS FOR THE BETTERMENT OF
HUMANITY IN THIS CENTURY. HE IS ONE OF THE
GREAT PERSONS OF THIS CENTURY BECAUSE HE GREW UP
WITHIN THAT SYSTEM AND HAD THE MORAL STRENGTH,
THE CHARACTER, AND INTELLECTUAL CAPACITY TO
CHANGE THAT, TO BRING THAT TO AN END.
HOST: BUT WHAT YOU ARE SAYING IS THAT THIS DIVISION
BETWEEN THE REACTIONARY FORCES BEHIND AYATOLLAH
KHAMENEI AND THE PROGRESSIVE FORCES OF
MODERNIZATION BEHIND PRESIDENT KHATEMI, THAT
THIS IS A FALSE DICHOTOMY.
DURAN: IT IS CERTAINLY VASTLY EXAGGERATED. AND THESE
PROTEST DEMONSTRATIONS NOW, THEY BROUGHT THIS
WHOLE THING TO THE FORE. I MEAN, KHATEMI CAN
PLAY THIS GAME UNTIL A CERTAIN POINT, BUT HERE
THINGS WENT TOO FAR. AND THEN HE HAD TO SHOW
HIS TRUE COLORS. HE HAD TO REVEAL HIMSELF AS A
MAN OF THIS REGIME, OF THE SYSTEM, WHO JUST HAS
THAT LOVELY SMILE, BUT NOTHING ELSE THAN THAT.
HOST: DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT, AZAR NAFISI?
NAFISI: YES, I DO AGREE WITH THAT. AND I AM VERY GLAD
THAT YOU BROUGHT THAT OUT. I THINK IT'S VERY
SIMPLISTIC TO REDUCE EVERYTHING TO THE WHITE
HAT, BLACK HAT, HIS MODERATENESS KHATEMI VERSUS
THE BAD GUYS, KHAMENEI. KHATEMI'S POSITION IN
IRAN IS VERY PARADOXICAL. ON THE ONE HAND, HE
HAS SAID IT, AND WE SHOULD BELIEVE HIM, THAT HE
BELIEVES IN THE TENETS OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC,
INCLUDING THE RULE OF THE LEADERS. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THE AGENDA THAT PEOPLE WANTED OF HIM OR
VOTED FOR GOES AGAINST THE VERY BASICS OF THAT
TENET. NOW LET'S TAKE KHATEMI 'S RULES OF LAW.
I MEAN, OVER HERE, AS SOON AS YOU TALK ABOUT
LAW, IT SEEMS AS IF YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT MAGNA
CARTA. AND OF COURSE, WE SHOULD HAVE RULE OF
LAW. BUT WITH KHATEMI, RULE OF LAW IS THE RULE
OF THE SUPREME LEADER. FOR WOMEN, IT MEANS THAT
THEY REDUCE THE AGE OF CONSENT FOR GIRLS FROM
EIGHTEEN TO EIGHT AND A HALF LUNAR YEARS.
HOST: FOR MARRIAGE?
NAFISI: YES. AND THE FATHER HAS THE PERMISSION. I
MEAN, EVEN IF YOU ARE FIFTY YEARS OLD, YOU CAN'T
MARRY WITHOUT THE PERMISSION OF YOUR FATHER, FOR
THE FIRST TIME. AN EIGHT AND A HALF YEAR OLD
GIRL IS RESPONSIBLE BEFORE THE LAW, BUT A FIFTY
YEAR OLD WOMAN CAN'T LEAVE THE COUNTRY WITHOUT
THE CONSENT OF HER HUSBAND. SO THESE ARE THE
LAWS. YOU STONE PEOPLE FOR ADULTERY. ISLAMIC
DEMOCRACY? I MEAN, DO YOU HAVE JUDAIC DEMOCRACY
AND ZOROASTRIAN DEMOCRACY? DEMOCRACY ENTAILS
CERTAIN VALUES, AND PEOPLE BELIEVE IN IT. ISLAM
IS A RELIGION, AND IT HAS ITS OWN RESPECT AND
PLACE AND DIGNITY, YOU KNOW. ISLAMIC DEMOCRACY
IS THEOCRACY. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS ISLAMIC
DEMOCRACY, AND THE STUDENTS ARE UNDERSTANDING
THAT AND DEMONSTRATING IT.
HOST: WELL, IN FACT THERE WAS AN INTERESTING REACTION
FROM VARIOUS LEADERS OF THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARD
WHO SENT A LETTER TO PRESIDENT KHATEMI. AND
I'LL JUST QUOTE A SHORT PASSAGE FROM IT:
"HONORABLE MR. KHATEMI, HOW LONG MUST WE WEEP,
WORRY," AND IN QUOTES, OBVIOUSLY BEING
SARCASTIC, "'PRACTICE DEMOCRACY' AND SHOW
REVOLUTIONARY PATIENCE AT THE RISK OF OUR
SYSTEM'S DESTRUCTION." FIRST OF ALL, HOW
EXTRAORDINARY IS THAT FOR THE REVOLUTIONARY
GUARD TO EXPRESS ITSELF IN THAT WAY? NUMBER
TWO, ARE THEY EXAGGERATING THE DANGER UNDER
WHICH THE REGIME HAS NOW COME, OR IS IT THAT BAD
NOW?
NAFISI: I THINK THAT THE "HARDLINERS," DO FEEL THE
THREAT. I THINK THAT THEY ARE NOT DECEIVED BY
THESE WORDS. THEY KNEW THAT ANY REAL REFORM IN
IRAN WOULD LEAD TO FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE. AND THAT
IS WHY THEY ALSO TREAT THE WEST -- I MEAN, THE
WEST IS NOT REALLY IMPERIALISM, IT'S NOT
ECONOMIC EXPLOITATION. IRAN HAS ALWAYS BEEN
PREPARED TO HAVE RELATIONS WITH THE U-S
ECONOMICALLY, YOU KNOW. WHERE THEY ARE WORRIED
IS CULTURE, AND INVASION OF THE DECADENT WESTERN
CULTURE. AND THESE STUDENTS, THE ISLAMIC ONES
THAT YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT, THEY HAVE BEEN
EXPOSED TO THIS CULTURE, AND BECAUSE THEY WERE
DEPRIVED OF IT. I MEAN YOU ARE THE GREAT SATAN
-- I KNOW YOU HAVE ABDICATED THAT TITLE RECENTLY
-- IT'S THE GREAT SATAN, THE INSIDIOUS TEMPTER
OF MEN'S HEARTS, AS THE KORAN TELLS US. SO WHAT
WORRIES THEM IS THAT THE YOUTH HAVE SEEN THE
WORLD, HAVE FELT THE WORLD.
HOST: HOW?
NAFISI: WELL, WE HAVE COMPUTERS, AND WE HAVE E-MAIL.
THE SATELLITE DISHES ARE FORBIDDEN IN IRAN, BUT
EVERYBODY, AT THE RISK OF IMPRISONMENT, WATCHES
THE SATELLITE DISHES. DO YOU KNOW THAT THE MOST
-- UNFORTUNATELY, I AM NOT PROUD OF THIS -- THE
MOST POPULAR SHOW IN TEHRAN IS "BAY WATCH." IN
THE POORER AREAS, WHERE THE GOVERNMENT IS
WORRIED ABOUT -- OBVIOUSLY THEY ARE NOT WORRIED
ABOUT SOMEONE LIKE ME -- PEOPLE BUY ONE
SATELLITE DISH AND SELL TICKETS TO THE SHOWS.
THIS IS WHAT IS WORRYING THEM. PEOPLE SEE THAT
THE GREAT SATAN IS NOT THE REPRESSIVE FORCE
HERE, THAT THE PROBLEM IS OURS, AND NOT A FORCE
FROM OUTSIDE.
HOST: SO KHALID DURAN, THIS IS REALLY A CLASH OF
CULTURES INSIDE IRAN?
DURAN: OH DEFINITELY. EXCEPT THAT I SEE ALSO THE OTHER
PROBLEM THERE OF RULING ELITES. THIS GOVERNMENT
HAS INSTALLED ITSELF, I MEAN, AFTER THE
REVOLUTION, WITH ITS OWN GROUP OF PEOPLE. IT
HAS THEN EXPANDED THAT CIRCLE. THAT WAS, I
WOULD SAY, A POLITICAL MASTERPIECE -- THE WAY
KHAMENEI USED, FOR EXAMPLE, THE COMMUNIST PARTY
TO BEAT THE OTHERS AND THEN, AFTER HE HAD
INSTALLED HIMSELF IN POWER, THEN FINISHED OFF
THE COMMUNISTS, AND SO ON. SO THAT WAS
EXTREMELY WELL DONE, AND HALF EXPANDED THAT
CIRCLE OF PEOPLE WHO WOULD DEPEND ON THIS
REGIME. OF COURSE NUMBER ONE AMONG THOSE ARE
THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
IT IS AN ARMY OF THE REGIME IN ORDER TO MAKE
SURE THAT THIS REGIME CANNOT BE TOPPLED BY THE
REGULAR ARMY, AS SUCH. IT IS A SECOND ARMY, OR
A COUNTER-ARMY. WE SEE THAT SYSTEM, BY THE WAY,
NOW ALSO BEING INTRODUCED IN OTHER COUNTRIES.
IN SUDAN, THEY ARE FOLLOWING EXACTLY THAT
EXAMPLE. AND THOSE PEOPLE HAVE VESTED
INTERESTS, AND THEY WILL REALLY FIGHT. AND
THAT'S WHY I AM AFRAID WE'LL SEE A LOT OF
BLOODSHED IN IRAN BECAUSE, YOU SEE, THE SHAH
REGIME, TO MANY PEOPLE'S SURPRISE, TUMBLED VERY
QUICKLY AND THERE WAS MUCH LESS RESISTANCE THAN
WAS EXPECTED. BUT THIS GROUP HERE, THEY ARE
GOING TO RESIST, VERY TERRIBLY, BECAUSE WHERE
SHALL THEY GO? THEY CANNOT COME HERE TO THE
UNITED STATES AS ALMOST A MILLION IRANIANS HAVE
DONE. I MEAN, FOUR MILLION IRANIANS HAVE FLED
THAT ISLAMIC REPUBLIC THERE. BUT FOR THE MEN OF
THIS REGIME, THIS IS A VERY DIFFICULT
PROPOSITION.
HOST: LET ME ASK THEN, AZAR NAFISI, IS THERE A
POSSIBILITY OF CONTINUED REFORM INSIDE IRAN THAT
COULD BE PEACEFULLY ACHIEVED? FOR INSTANCE,
NEXT FEBRUARY, PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS? THIS
PAST YEAR THERE WERE MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS FOR THE
FIRST TIME AND THE SO-CALLED REFORM FORCES SWEPT
THOSE ELECTIONS. TWENTY MILLION PEOPLE VOTED
FOR PRESIDENT KHATEMI. WHAT DO YOU THINK MIGHT
HAPPEN IN FEBRUARY, EVEN THOUGH THE CLERICAL
REGIME GETS TO VET THE CANDIDATES. IS THAT
STILL A POSSIBLE VEHICLE FOR PEACEFUL CHANGE
INSIDE IRAN?
NAFISI: YOU KNOW, ALL THE CHANGES THAT HAVE BEEN
OBTAINED IN IRAN, I MEAN, FOR EXAMPLE, THE
OPENING IN TERMS OF THE JOURNALS AND NEWSPAPERS,
YOU HAVE ONE STEP FORWARD AND THEN TWO STEPS
BACKWARDS. NOW MOST OF THE JOURNALS ARE CLOSED
DOWN AND THEIR EDITORS ARE JAILED. AS FOR THE
ELECTIONS, I AGAIN WOULD LIKE TO JUST POINT OUT
THAT THIS IS VERY DIFFERENT FROM DEMOCRATIC
ELECTIONS, BECAUSE WHEN WE TALK ABOUT ELECTIONS
HERE, ALL PEOPLE ARE FREE TO VOTE FOR THE
CANDIDATES AND THERE IS CAMPAIGNING. OVER
THERE, ONLY IF YOU ARE ISLAMIC, AND ONLY IF YOU
ARE A CERTAIN TYPE OF ISLAMIC PERSON.
HOST: SHI'ITE?
NAFISI: NOT JUST SHI'ITE. YOU BELONG TO THE HIERARCHY,
TO THE CLERICAL HIERARCHY, WHICH PRESIDENT
KHATEMI ALSO BELONGED TO, WHICH MEANS THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THE IRANIAN PEOPLE DO NOT REALLY
HAVE A CANDIDATE. IT WOULD BE LIKE SAYING HERE
THAT YOU'RE FREE TO ELECT, BUT YOU CAN ONLY
ELECT FROM AMONG FIVE HUNDRED SOUTHERN BAPTISTS.
YOU'RE FREE TO ELECT, BUT YOU ARE VOTING FOR
SOUTHERN BAPTISTS.
HOST: SO YOUR ANSWER, IN SHORT, IS THAT THIS IS NOT A
VEHICLE FOR A KIND OF REFORMS THAT YOU THINK. .
.
NAFISI: BUT IT IS USED AS A GESTURE TO THE GOVERNMENT,
LIKE THE KHATEMI VOTE, AS A PROTEST VOTE,
BECAUSE YOU CAN'T EXPRESS YOURSELF, SO YOU VOTE.
YOU SHOW THEM THAT YOU DISAPPROVE, OR THERE ARE
CERTAIN THINGS THAT YOU APPROVE OF. I WISH
THERE COULD BE NON-VIOLENT CHANGE, AND THAT IS
WHAT I CAN HOPE SO MUCH THAT I ALMOST THINK THAT
IT IS POSSIBLE, BUT I DOUBT IT.
HOST: KHALID DURAN, SOME ANALYSTS SAY, UNLIKE 1979,
WITH THE POLITICAL AGENDA OF THE STUDENTS AND
THE OTHER PEOPLE -- IT WASN'T JUST STUDENTS,
SHOP PEOPLE, LOWER CLASS PEOPLE, JOINED TOGETHER
-- THE AGENDA WAS CLEAR: TOPPLE THE SHAH.
INSTITUTE AN ISLAMIC STATE. TODAY, THERE IS NO
COHERENT PROGRAM BINDING THESE STUDENTS TOGETHER
AND JOINING THEM WITH THE LARGER IRANIAN
POPULACE, NO CLEAR AGENDA OF WHAT THEY WISH TO
ACCOMPLISH. THEREFORE, INTERNAL DIVISIONS WILL
PULL IT APART AND NOTHING WILL COME OF THIS.
WHAT DO YOU THINK OF ANALYSTS WHO SAY THAT?
DURAN: WELL, YES AND NO. I HAVE SOME OTHER INFORMATION
THERE. I THINK THAT SOME OF THE IRANIAN
OPPOSITION FORCES HAVE A HAND IN THIS PROTEST.
THEY HAVE BECOME STRONGER IN RECENT YEARS. THE
MUCH MALIGNED PEOPLE'S MUJAHADEEN HAVE TURNED
OUT TO BE A FORCE., THEY HAVE BEEN SO MANY
TIMES DECLARED TO BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. AND
IT HAS BEEN SAID THAT THEY ARE VERY
PROPAGANDISTIC, AND NOT AS STRONG AS THEY MAKE
THEMSELVES OUT TO BE. THEY HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN
THEMSELVES TO BE A FORCE TO RECKON WITH,
HOST: INSIDE IRAN?
DURAN: INSIDE IRAN. DURING THE PROTESTS, WITH A NUMBER
OF ATTACKS ALSO ON THE MEMBERS OF THE REGIME.
THEY HAVE FORCED THE REGIME TO TAKE VERY STRONG
ACTION IN IRAQ, AND HAVE REALLY MADE THIS REGIME
VERY VERY NERVOUS. THE PROBLEM, OF COURSE, IS
THAT NOW THIS REGIME IS HITTING BACK. IN THE
BEGINNING, I MEAN THEY SUFFERED ENORMOUS NUMBERS
OF VICTIMS, THOUSANDS OF THOUSANDS OF YOUNG
WOMEN AND MEN WERE EXECUTED. I WONDER HOW THIS
IS GOING TO BE NOW. I MEAN OF COURSE THIS IS
DANGER. AGAIN THIS REGIME WILL EXECUTE SUCH
LARGE NUMBERS OF THEM, AND THEN WHAT NEXT?
THAT'S THE QUESTION TO ME. OTHERWISE THESE
PROTESTS, AGAIN, ARE NOT THAT UNORGANIZED AS
THEY ARE SOMETIMES DESCRIBED HERE. IT'S IN
BETWEEN, PARTLY YES, PARTLY VERY SPONTANEOUS AND
DISORGANIZED AND NO CLEAR DIRECTION AND NO
LEADERSHIP AND SO ON, BUT PARTLY ALSO IT WAS
QUITE WELL DONE.
HOST: I''M SORRY WE'LL HAVE TO SAVE FOR ANOTHER
PROGRAM WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT. BECAUSE I'M
AFRAID THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS WEEK.
I'D LIKE TO THANK OUR GUESTS -- AZAR NAFISI FROM
THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY
AND KHALID DURAN, EDITOR OF TRANSISLAM -- FOR
JOINING ME THIS WEEK TO DISCUSS THE FUTURE OF
IRAN. THIS IS ROBERT REILLY FOR ON THE LINE.
23-Jul-99 11:10 AM EDT (1510 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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